Jin Nongxin took the opportunity to release the signal that pig breeding was becoming intelligent, and the stock price that had been suppressed for many days immediately began to rise; Tang Renshen publicly stated that the smart pig farm management platform is being promoted in an orderly manner, and the company will comprehensively promote intelligent pig raising; Zhengbang Technology and New Hope also expressed their views one after another. Intelligent and automatic pig raising will be the general trend. ...
Not surprisingly, after Internet companies such as Netease, Ali and JD.COM cross-border pig raising, and real estate companies such as Country Garden and Vanke enter the pig raising industry, Huawei's "Nanniwan" project will once again push "pig raising" to the forefront.
It is said that humans have domesticated pigs for more than 9000 years. Sun Honghong, the first prime minister of the Western Han Dynasty, had a story of "herding pigs by the sea" before he made his fortune. However, large-scale pig raising did not appear until the end of 19, and the so-called modern large-scale pig raising only lasted for more than 40 years.
There is something special about pig breeding in China: China people consume more than 50 million tons of pork every year, accounting for almost 50% of the world's total consumption, but China pig breeding industry is still dominated by free-range households, and the market share of the top 20 enterprises is less than 10%, which is a typical pattern of "big industry and small companies".
Why has the seemingly "deformed" market repeatedly become the darling of the capital market in the past few years, so that thousands of housing enterprises have switched to raising pigs?
The answer is inseparable from the high profit of "raising pigs". According to the 2020 annual performance forecast released by Mu Yuan, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is about 27 billion yuan, up by 34 1.58% year-on-year. The average profit of a pig is 1.500 yuan, which is equivalent to the profits of two bottles of Kweichow Moutai.
Simply attributing the reason to the "profiteering" of raising pigs is probably not enough to attract Huawei's attention. After all, the pig industry has a pig cycle every three or four years: the price of pork rises-the pig industry expands production-the overcapacity of pigs-the price of pork falls-the pig farmers change careers-the supply of pigs falls-and the price of pigs rises again. If you misjudge the pig cycle, even the head players in the industry may be forced out.
The variable that really induces outsiders to file a case is actually "African swine fever". The appearance of 20 18 African swine fever directly led to the reduction of domestic pig stocks by more than 40%, and then the pork market started the price increase tide in the past three years, which profoundly changed the domestic pig breeding market pattern: the ruthless African swine fever quickly eliminated free-range households, and the unresolved mode dispute gradually got a clear answer.
There are two main schools of aquaculture in China. One is the asset-oriented model of "self-construction, self-reproduction and self-support" represented by animal husbandry, and the other is the light asset model of "company+farmer" represented by Wen.
Before 2020, the market value of Muyuan was firmly suppressed by the Wen family, but after 2020, there was polarization. The market value of Muyuan soared, but the market value of the Wen family continued to decline, eventually opening a gap of 200 billion yuan. The reason is not difficult to explain. Muyuan's strict control over the industrial chain has verified the advantages of intensification and standardization in fighting against uncertain factors, while Wen's light asset model, on which Wen's survival depends, unfortunately missed the dividend of the continuous increase in pig prices.
The heavy asset model of pig breeding has been deeply verified, which may be an opportunity for technology manufacturers to see.
Perhaps in the impression of many people, "raising pigs" is almost a business with no technical threshold, so that the behavior of "Peking University talents selling pork" became phenomenal news more than a decade ago. This prejudice has obviously become common sense, and real estate enterprises are the best example.
It is precisely the "honesty" of housing enterprises that makes the outside world see the complicated side of the pig industry.
At the end of 20 14, Wang Jianlin, who likes to set small targets, announced that he would invest 65,438 billion yuan in Guizhou, with the goal of building 300,000 pig breeding plants, slaughtering and processing plants and feed processing plants. However, after just over a year, Wanda gave up the pig raising plan. The explanation at that time was: "How much does it cost to build a pig farm with100000 pigs? How much does it cost us to build a five-star hotel? "
Xu Jiayin, who is "unbelieving in evil", announced in high profile that he would spend 300 million yuan to build a 1 10 pig raising and farming and animal husbandry base in Guizhou in the same year that Wanda terminated its pig raising plan. By 20 18, Vanke and Country Garden, unable to restrain their inner impulse, began to deploy the great cause of raising pigs one after another ... The result tells us that the real estate enterprises that seem to be not poor in money just tried repeatedly inside and outside the pig farm, and did not firmly embark on the journey of "raising pigs".
It's not that real estate companies don't covet the huge profits of raising pigs, but how deep the water is when they walk out of half a foot.
Take Mu Yuan, who earned a lot of money in 2020, as an example. The heavy transcripts can be said to be a blockbuster in the capital market, and all 58 research reports on Mu Yuan were rated as "buy" or "overweight". We can take a closer look at Muyuan's operating conditions. The internal problems such as frequent equity pledge by major shareholders, high proportion of short-term loans and uncertain performance growth are far from establishing a market position that matches the market value.
To be exact, Mu Yuan's skyrocketing has some luck. For a leading enterprise with a market share of only 3%, it is necessary to give enough hard power to stage the Matthew effect of the strong and the strong in the market. For example, if the price of pork goes down, the profit margin of aquaculture enterprises will inevitably be compressed. However, with the normalization of swine fever in Africa, the rigid investment in safety prevention and control will continue to increase. How does Muyuan continue to maintain its leading position?
The answer given by economics is to reduce costs and cross the "pig cycle" with low costs as a bargaining chip.
Muyuan is looking for ways to improve production efficiency, and there are many corresponding examples. Muyuan once recruited talents in some colleges and universities with a monthly salary of not less than 20 thousand, with the aim of attracting high-quality talents to enter the aquaculture industry and supplementing the intellectual resources lacking in the pig industry; By the same token, what Jin, Zhengbang Technology and others did. After Huawei exposed the news of "smart pig raising", it also confirmed the appeal of the aquaculture industry to a certain extent.
Netease, Ali, JD.COM, Huawei and other high-tech companies have successively launched the "pig raising plan", the starting point may be to solve the pain of animal husbandry.
Netease's Pig Raising is full of petty bourgeoisie feelings. It is said that he ate suspicious pig blood while scalding hot pot, and Ding Lei came up with the idea of raising pigs himself. Whether these stories are true or not, from the recent strategic direction of Netease Weiyang, the choice is ultimately an external empowerment road.
The origin of Ali, JD.COM, etc. And "pig-raising" can even be attributed to the product of To B. Under the background of the transformation from the Internet to to to B, both AI pig-raising in Alibaba Cloud and "pig face recognition" in JD.COM Mathematics Department are essentially transforming the traditional breeding mode with new technologies.
Huawei seems to be no exception. According to Huawei's speech at the 2020 intelligent ecological development forum for agriculture and animal husbandry, the so-called "intelligent pig raising" is nothing more than exporting ICT technology to pig farms, including sensors, Internet of Things technology and artificial intelligence algorithms behind it, with the focus on upgrading pig farm facilities.
To put it simply, the consideration of real estate enterprises entering the pig industry may be to get a share, while the purpose of technology manufacturers is to earn money from pig farms. If real estate enterprises are "barbarians" in Mu Yuan's eyes, technology manufacturers have kindly extended an olive branch of cooperation.
As a technology manufacturer that breeds "amateurs", can you pry open the door of pig farms? At least two favorable positive signals can be found.
The first is the cooperation between Netease Weiyang and Zhejiang Jitou, which will undertake the investment and construction of Weiyang pig farm. After experiencing the severe mode of "self-construction, self-propagation, self-support and self-marketing", Netease Weiyang intends to further lighten the mode, that is, export the breeding mode to partners and focus on marketing and operation. The participation of Zhejiang Machine Investment and other players shows to some extent that the farming model and business model explored by Netease have been accepted by the outside world.
The second is the head enterprises such as Muyuan and Wenshi. For example, Muyuan has repeatedly opened "smart pig farms" to the media, especially when African swine fever broke out, inspection robots were used for disinfection and monitoring. Although the head enterprises such as Muyuan did not disclose the news of cooperation with technology manufacturers, from the mutual understanding of the "smart pig raising" model, Huawei, Ali, Baidu and other technology enterprises can't bypass the intelligent transformation of pig farms.
It needs to be clarified that at present, "intelligent pig raising" is only a kind of * * * cognitive existence, and has not yet become the mainstream mode of pig raising industry. Even for the largest head enterprises such as Wen's, Mu Yuan and New Hope, the main use of funds is still the expansion of production capacity and the extension of upstream and downstream industrial chains, and the investment in "smart pig farms" is not obvious. Huawei, Ali and other "new pig-raising forces" still have a long way to go.
From the standpoint of technology manufacturers, "smart pig raising" may not be an easy road, but it is a blue ocean market that should not be missed. Simply calculate an economic account: at the end of 2020, the number of live pigs in China is 407 million, and the cost of pig farms is about 1 10,000 yuan/head, which can be said to be a veritable market of 100 billion yuan.
What's more, from the perspective of potential market trends, there is no shortage of short-term possibilities.
On the one hand, live pig futures have been listed in the big commercial exchange at the beginning of 20021. Referring to the centralized process of pig breeding scale in the United States, pig futures have played an indispensable role. Large-scale aquaculture enterprises can avoid the risk of market price fluctuation through pig futures, and then constantly force small and medium-sized retail investors to withdraw from the market. At least in the more than 20 years since the introduction of pig futures in the United States, the stock of more than 5,000 super-large pig farms has increased from 20% to 74%. There is no doubt that China relies on pig futures to accelerate the process of centralization.
On the other hand, large-scale production will ensure a stable market supply to a great extent, thus stabilizing the "pig cycle" and forcing the competitive focus of the pig industry to shift to production cost and production efficiency. The imaginative space of "smart pig raising" lies in liberating people through technologies such as the Internet of Things, big data and artificial intelligence, which not only reduces the uncertain risks such as epidemic situation, but also accelerates the transformation of pig farms to standardization and unmanned. Under the background of the centralized process of domestic pig industry, "intelligent pig raising" is destined to be an unavoidable topic for herders.
It is not difficult to understand Huawei's motivation to enter "smart pig raising" at this time node. The "small farmer model" of China's aquaculture industry, which has lasted for thousands of years, is disintegrating. The modernization, scale and standardization of pig breeding have become the mainstream will of the whole society. Entering the market at this time is undoubtedly an excellent opportunity.
It is foreseeable that Huawei is by no means the last technology giant to announce "raising pigs". When the market structure of domestic pig breeding is further clarified, more and more technology players will flood in.