There are many factors that affect the fluctuation of corn market. After the autumn harvest, the market may be lowered. First, due to the high international corn price, the import cost will increase greatly. Secondly, in a few months, it will become the base camp of new corn. Third, the pattern of corn supply and demand will not be officially opened until the wheat price is stable in the later period. The fluctuation of corn price is influenced by weather, transportation and logistics, feed cost and other factors. After the National Day, the progress of corn harvest in the new season in China continued to accelerate, and the progress of autumn harvest in most areas has reached 7.
According to the analysis of Zhongzhou Futures, the gap between corn production and demand in the new year is narrowing. In the fourth quarter, due to the centralized listing of new corn, the supply of substitutes increased in stages, and there were more optional materials for downstream grain enterprises. In terms of price, the corn grid in the northern port is at a neutral level at present. Considering the storage cost and corn price in the distant month, we predict that feed enterprises will not build a large number of corn stocks at the current price. However, from the perspective of farmers' planting cost and energy and food price difference, when the corn price in the northern port is in the underestimated range.
Brief introduction of corn market trend
According to the quarterly inventory report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), as of September 65,438+0, the US corn inventory was 65,438+03,665,438+0 billion bushels, which was 65,438+0% lower than the previous market estimate of 65,438+0, which made the US corn rise. Domestically, the high yield of new corn in Northeast China is expected to be strong, and the new corn has high moisture content and uneven grain quality, and the drying tower goes with the harvest, so the processing enterprises are not enthusiastic about building positions.
The price of new corn was significantly lower than that of the same period last year. Grass-roots growers have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, the enthusiasm of grain production has weakened, the phenomenon of traders opening positions on dips has increased, the circulation of corn has shrunk, the sentiment of lowering prices has weakened, and the decline has slowed down. On the whole, the spot market is weak under the pressure of new grain listing. On the disk, under the influence of the weak spot price, the futures price remained weak.