First of all, we have a clear concept. For financial institutions (mainly banks), loans are assets and deposits are liabilities. The scale of social financing and new RMB credit data can generally reflect the financing needs of entities and the willingness of financial institutions to lend, which belong to the asset side of financial institutions. Money supply (M0, M 1, M2) and new RMB deposit data can generally reflect whether the liquidity of the real economy is sufficient, which is the debt end of financial institutions.
Social integration data analysis Social integration data mainly depends on the year-on-year change of the newly added value in the current month, because the newly added value can quickly reveal the financing needs and financial expansion willingness of entities. It should be noted that the new social financing includes the interest that enterprises need to repay. Corporate debt is rising and interest is accumulating, which takes up new social financing and pushes up the stock of new social financing.
Observing social integration data also needs to pay attention to the influence of seasonal factors. Historically, the seasonal impulse of new social integration expanded obviously in 65438+ 10, March, June, September, 165438+ 10, and contracted obviously in other months. After careful analysis, this model still has rules to follow. At the beginning of each year, banks have the consideration of seeking a good start, early investment and early benefit. Accordingly, 65438+February is generally the low point of social financing, on the one hand, because the credit line of that year was almost used, on the other hand, it is also reserved for next year. Then put more at the end of the season, and it is too hard to put less at the beginning of the next season after the end of the season.
There are six sub-items of social financing data, which account for a relatively high proportion and have a great impact on the fluctuation, namely RMB loans, undiscounted bank acceptance bills, trust loans, entrusted loans, domestic stock financing and corporate bond financing. The highlights of these projects are as follows.
When the bill financing in RMB loans has increased greatly, it is generally believed that banks are now in a low-risk preference state, because bills are a low-risk credit method.
Due to the vacillation of trust products, it is difficult for future trust to exist in the form of shadow banking. The probability of the future is to do a good job in wealth management and intergenerational inheritance of wealth and return to the source of trust. Trust loans under the social and financial caliber may be relatively depressed.
Entrusted loan means that customers provide funds, commercial banks help customers lend money to designated objects, and banks do not bear credit risks.
The acceptance bill of Antenna Bank fluctuates greatly, which has great influence on social financing. Because bank acceptance business can bring deposits and liabilities to banks, and does not occupy the capital on the balance sheet, banks themselves have the internal motivation to make big impulses.
Domestic stock financing and corporate bond financing account for a small proportion of social financing and do not need too much attention.
Analysis of money supply There are three data of money supply, namely M0, M 1 (narrow money) and M2 (broad money). M0 is the cash in circulation, with the strongest liquidity. M 1 equals M0 plus the company's current deposit, and its liquidity is second only to M0. M2 equals M 1 plus quasi-currency, which can be understood as money fund.
When analyzing the money supply, there are several factors to pay attention to.
The first is the change of fiscal deposits. The increase in fiscal deposits means that enterprises turn over money to the state treasury, and money flows from enterprises to government departments, leaving less money in the real economy. On the contrary, fiscal deposits decreased and more money remained in the real economy. Therefore, the growth of fiscal deposits will drag down M 1 and M2.
The second is a loan. Loans can come from deposits, which is a positive contribution to M2.
The third is bonds. Bond investment minus financial bonds (bank bonds, certificates of deposit, secondary capital bonds, etc.). ) can reflect the bond part that creates deposits.
The implicit information in financial data, M 1 and M2 scissors, is intuitively understood. If the proportion of M 1 in the money supply structure is higher, the faster the money circulates in the real economy, and the more obvious the promotion to the real economy.
Specifically, if enterprises are pessimistic about the future, they will be more inclined to invest in low-risk finance, make deposits regularly, or buy money funds, certificates of deposit, etc. At this time, M 1 will be converted into M2, and the scissors difference of M 1-M2 will be reduced.
On the contrary, if an enterprise is optimistic about the future and is ready to replenish its inventory or expand its expenditure, it will choose to make deposits current, and the scissors difference of M 1-M2 will widen.
In addition, the improvement of real estate sales will also cause the scissors difference of M 1-M2 to be exaggerated. When residents buy a house, they will turn their savings into those of developers. If developers are optimistic about the property market and use residents' deposits for land purchase and other activities, it will increase M 1 in disguise.
The difference between social financing and M2 scissors When the difference between the year-on-year growth rate of social financing and the year-on-year growth rate of M2 widens, it shows that the demand for physical financing is strong. After the financing quota of the banking system is used up, there are still more unsatisfied financing needs to be supplemented by non-bank institutions.