20 16, de-capacity, de-inventory, etc? Supply side reform? The implementation of this policy in the coal industry has led to the soaring futures prices of coal and coke. Compared with the lowest point, the futures prices of thermal coal, coking coal and coke all rose by more than 200%, among which the futures price of coke even set a daily record of 16 Yang Lian. Will people in the futures market name thermal coal? Coal is crazy? , and the coking coal and coke dubbed? Unparalleled double focus? It can be seen how crazy the price increase of coal and coke is.
According to the expected information of the future price trend transmitted by the coal and coke futures markets, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has convened relevant departments to discuss the situation of coal supply and demand five times since September 8, and at the same time, it has issued a series of policies and measures to release production capacity and increase supply. A series of policy control measures finally effectively curbed the skyrocketing price of coal char, and futures prices generally fell by more than 15%, returning to rationality.
Look at another case that happened in 2003.
When the futures price of natural rubber rose rapidly in a short period of time, the government paid attention to it, and the relevant departments immediately took a series of measures, such as the National Reserve Bureau selling the stored natural rubber several times; At the end of the year, it was announced that the import quota management would be abolished in 2004, and at the same time, the natural rubber agricultural and forestry specialty tax (8.8%) would be changed to agricultural tax (5%). These measures have played a positive role in increasing supply and curbing the excessive rise in the price of natural rubber.
In order to promote the rapid growth and coordinated development of the national economy, the government must formulate a series of macroeconomic policies. When the supply and demand of some important commodities and materials related to the national economy and people's livelihood are seriously out of balance, resulting in abnormal price fluctuations, the government will adjust relevant policies to deal with and influence the supply and demand structure, so as to promote the return of prices to normal. It is not difficult to understand that the government needs to understand not only the current price situation, but also the price trend when formulating or implementing regulation. So, what kind of price signal can better reflect the price trend?
Spot price can naturally reflect the supply and demand situation to a certain extent, but it usually reflects the trend slowly, which is characterized by the lag in terminology. The policies formulated on this basis will not only have the defect of slow speed, but more seriously, the adjustment policies introduced without confirmation are likely to lead to blind expansion or contraction of social production and great waste of social resources. Futures trading is a competitive economic behavior that processes a large amount of information and then predicts the forward price to form the future price, which has the characteristics of being ahead of time and quick response. Making use of this advantage of futures prices to formulate corresponding control policies can greatly overcome the blindness of decision-making and improve the scientific nature of decision-making.
In fact, it is very common in the world to pay attention to futures prices and take futures prices as the basis for adjustment. For example, one of the important bases for OPEC to regulate oil production is the price of oil futures. For another example, when the Fed decides whether and how to adjust interest rates, it will also take some important commodity futures, commodity index futures and financial futures as leading indicators in the economy.
The above is the relevant sharing of futures market terms in the 2020 futures qualification examination. I hope it will be helpful to all candidates. If you want to know more about the futures qualification examination, you are welcome to pay attention to this platform in time!
The above is the related content of Bian Xiao's 2020 Futures Examination Futures Market Terminology 4. For more information, you can pay attention to the global ivy and share more dry goods.