In 2010, despite the continuous intrusion of the European sovereign debt crisis, China's cumulative GDP growth in the first three quarters still reached 10.6%, and inflation also followed. Under the government-led economic system, how to curb economic overheating and inflation has always been a cyclical problem that has been dealt with repeatedly. This is the dilemma of the “China model”. And it’s not just in the economic realm. Now that groups from all walks of life in China have acquired "modern characters" such as rationality, participation, and skepticism, the "China Model" is facing many profound challenges.
Prediction 1: Agricultural products will continue to rise
Under the intertwined influence of three major factors, including extreme weather in major grain-producing areas around the world, rising food demand, and speculation, in 2010 In the international agricultural product market, corn, soybean, and wheat futures prices have entered a dazzling bull market. The main reasons for the increase in food demand are: First, Western countries such as Europe and the United States are vigorously developing biofuels, resulting in a situation where cars and people compete for food; second, the rapid economic growth of many emerging markets and changes in residents' eating habits have led to structural changes in global food demand. triggering a surge in demand.
In addition to the relationship between supply and demand, speculative capital is also an important reason for the surge in food prices this year. Charles Nedos, senior market analyst at Olympus Futures in Chicago, pointed out that although speculative funds are just followers of price trends, the leverage effect of the influx of large amounts of speculative "hot money" on food price fluctuations cannot be underestimated. . Analysts generally believe that driven by the gradual tightening of global supply and demand and speculation by speculative funds, the agricultural product market will continue to rise in 2011.
Prediction 2: Oil prices are expected to exceed US$100 per barrel
On December 31, 2010, international crude oil futures prices closed at the highest year-end closing price since 2007. The market generally expects that the rise in international oil prices will continue in 2011 and will exceed the US$100 per barrel mark. In 2010, the trend of international crude oil prices showed an oscillating upward trend. The main factors leading to fluctuations in international oil prices last year were changes in market supply and demand expectations and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar exchange rate. Regarding the trend in 2011, market analysts generally believe that in view of the economic recovery of the world's major energy consuming countries, the rise in oil prices will continue in 2011.
Prediction 3: The U.S. dollar will maintain an oscillating trend and does not rule out a short-term rise
In 2010, affected by the uneven recovery of the world economy and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. dollar trend oscillated violently. Market analysts believe that the US dollar will still maintain an oscillating trend in 2011, but do not rule out the possibility of a short-term rise. Analysts believe that the overall trend of the US dollar in 2011 will still be mainly affected by the US economic situation. U.S. economic policies, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy measures, will have a crucial impact on the trend of the U.S. dollar.
The further development of the euro zone’s debt problem and the state of economic recovery are also important factors affecting the dollar. In 2011, whether the debt problem of the Eurozone can be well resolved and the international economic recovery of the Eurozone will be important factors affecting the euro and thus the trend of the US dollar. Changes in the regional situation will also affect the trend of the US dollar. As a traditional investment hedging tool, the U.S. dollar is likely to be sought after by investors in the short term during periods of political and economic turmoil.
Prediction 4: Metals will still maintain rising momentum, but the increase will be limited
At the beginning of 2010, institutions such as Barclays Capital, Morgan Stanley and UBS all expected that as demand improved, base metals Prices will move higher. At the end of last year, the market fulfilled the above predictions. Throughout the year, the growth in metal prices exceeded even the most optimistic expectations.
Generally speaking, the performance of the metal market in 2010 was eye-catching. In the new year, the fundamental tightening of supply and demand will not improve much. Therefore, copper and other metals will continue to maintain their upward momentum, but The gains may be subdued. Barclays Capital predicts that global economic growth will moderately slow down to about 4.25% in 2011 from 4.9% this year. Asia and Latin America, where metal demand growth is strong, will slow down even more. In 2011, it may drop from 7.8% last year. About 6.5%, which has an impact on the demand outlook for metals remaining strong. In addition, the macroeconomic policies and growth rate of China, the world's largest metal consumer, the economic recovery of OECD countries and the trend of the US dollar will also have a huge impact on the direction of the metal market in 2011. Emerging markets should focus on preventing the risks posed by the "return" of funds to the United States. If the U.S. economy is better than expected in the future, causing capital to flow back, it may have an impact on emerging market asset prices and exchange rates that are already at high levels.