Although the expectation of global economic inflation peaking and falling is constantly fermenting, and commodity prices are generally falling, the energy sector is still hovering at a high level.

Although both US Oil and Oil Distribution fell below the 100 mark before, they have recently rebounded and returned to the 100 mark, while coal and natural gas have continuously hit new highs.

However, at this juncture, another thing is about to happen.

First of all, the coal ban on Russia is about to take effect.

After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States and the West imposed a series of related sanctions on Russia. Among them, in April this year, the EU officially approved the fifth round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on Russian coal.

However, as we all know, Europe is highly dependent on foreign energy, and Russia is the largest energy supplier in Europe. According to the data, 45% of the coal imported by the EU every year comes from Russia.

Therefore, the ban stipulates that there will be a transition period of 120 days before the formal ban takes effect, so that member countries can use this buffer time to hoard enough coal.

Thus, since then, Europe has launched a "coal grab" war on a global scale.

The data shows that since the ban was issued, the amount of coal imported by Europe from the United States, Australia, Indonesia, Colombia and other countries has increased significantly. By the end of July, European coal imports increased by more than 40% year-on-year.

The increase in demand will undoubtedly push coal prices to continue to rise. At present, the transition period of 120 days set by the European Union is about to expire (the total ban will take effect on 10 in August), but European coal prices have hit record highs.

Just this Monday, European coal futures prices reached a record level, exceeding $400/ton.

Why is it that Europe's efforts to "grab coal" still can't stop the rise of coal prices?

Because Europe needs coal more than ever.

Second, many countries have returned to the "old road", and coal demand may hit a new high.

The scene of the European energy crisis in the second half of last year is still vivid. Due to extreme weather, wind power and hydropower stopped, electricity was in short supply in Europe, and natural gas prices soared. But this year, this problem has not eased, but has intensified.

In the European sanctions against Russia, it also includes the energy field, the most important of which is natural gas.

Europe consumes about 500 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year, while Russia supplies 45% of natural gas, and some countries even reach 100%.

However, with the increase of sanctions and the maintenance of the "Beixi 1" steam turbine, the gas supply decreased sharply, leaving only 20%.

This has once again triggered a surge in European natural gas prices.

Many European countries have to restart coal-fired power generation in the case that the "gas shortage" dilemma is difficult to alleviate.

For example, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands all indicated that they would increase the output of coal-fired power generation.

In order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, many European countries have long promised to phase out coal energy, but now it seems obviously unrealistic and impossible to achieve.

Therefore, the German Minister of Economy stated that "increasing dependence on coal is painful, but it is also necessary".

In fact, "coal shortage" is not only a matter in Europe, but has spread all over the world.

In order to cope with the unusually hot weather this year, the demand for electricity in the United States has soared, so some areas are increasing the use of coal; India also faces this problem. On the one hand, India is a big coal consumer, on the other hand, the high temperature weather in India has greatly increased domestic demand. For example, data show that India's coal-fired power generation set a record in April.

Therefore, the International Energy Agency predicts that global coal demand will remain strong, and may even reach a record high.

Third, Russia's coal export turned.

When Europe began to "grab coal" in the world, Russia did not sit still, but actively looked for other alternative markets.

The data shows that from April to June, the direction of Russian coal exports has not changed much, and exports to Europe still account for 30-35%. However, since July, Russian coal has been sold to countries in Asia-Pacific, Middle East and North Africa. At the same time, coal exports to Europe almost "stopped".

This means that Russia, an important energy power, has begun to change its export focus, shifting more focus from Europe to Asia-Pacific and other regions.

4. Will coal prices continue to rise?

Although the expectation that global economic inflation will peak is getting stronger and stronger, the current market trend towards oil is obviously polarized. Some people think that with the decline of demand and performance, the oil market will face a "double kill" situation, and then there may be a sharp decline; However, there are also views that the persistence of conflicts and the unexpected supply growth, coupled with the low global oil inventories, make the high probability of oil prices still linger.

However, the market views on the rising trend of coal are basically the same, that is, coal prices will still rise with a high probability.

On the one hand, after the Russian coal supply turns, the demand for coal in Europe will be more urgent, and the transportation distance will become longer, which will inevitably increase the cost.

On the other hand, the high temperature in summer has made many countries unbearable, and the demand has surged, but it is even more difficult in winter. The cold in winter will further amplify this demand, and then the demand may come to a higher level.

Driven by strong demand, it is difficult for coal not to rise.

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