This week, the Dow Jones index in the financial market rose during the week, and China A shares basically remained volatile. There were signs of a break in the intraday trading on Friday, but it rose sharply in the late session, and the daily line closed at a longer shadow line. Commodities are mixed this week. Some varieties such as agricultural products, basic metals and sugar have all gone out of the shock market. The chemical sector is the highlight of this week, with plastics, PTA and rubber all rising sharply during the week.
Fundamentally, the central bank's expectation of raising interest rates is further enhanced. Standard Chartered Bank released the latest research report on June 5438+03, which lowered the previous domestic CPI forecast for 20 10 from 4.5% to 3.5%, and predicted that the central bank would implement appropriate credit guidance on 20 10. From the end of the first quarter to the second quarter, monetary policy will be tightened, which will include two interest rate hikes of 27 basis points each time. According to the report, the State Council has recently made it clear that it will give top priority to managing inflation expectations, and raising interest rates is undoubtedly the most effective policy signal. Judging from some domestic financial policies, the preferential policies for second-home loans have also begun to tighten. China's monetary control is different from that of western countries with complete market economy. China's control over money is mainly reflected in its credit policy, while western countries use interest rate instruments more. Therefore, we can judge that the adjustment of China's monetary policy has begun.
In terms of commodity market, some varieties are about to enter the seasonal growth trend at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. Under the general trend, the second heavy snow in winter in China has become the main factor of recent speculation. Usually, the focus of the market speculation on heavy snow is mainly: affecting power transmission, affecting metal production, affecting traffic, causing short-term shortage of goods, affecting the harvest of agricultural products and so on. However, these hype points are basically not established this year. We will focus on rubber with both agricultural and industrial characteristics. Generally, rubber rises seasonally from the end of 1 1, because rubber stops cutting at the end of each year and March of the following year. If the weather is cold, it will be ahead of schedule, resulting in short-term supply shortage. Downstream, the automobile industry, as the main consumer of rubber, has been extremely hot this year, exceeding the sales volume of "05 automobile blowout" in the economic crisis environment. Automobile manufacturers' replenishment will form a strong support for rubber. In terms of policy, the recent national policy to support the export of the automobile industry will also promote the industry. Finally, the rise of crude oil in the future market is also one of the reasons to promote the strength of rubber. Therefore, we believe that there is still room for domestic rubber to continue to rise. When investors invest in rubber, they should control the allocation of funds. It is suggested that light warehouses participate. Because of the large fluctuation of rubber, small plates and strong capital dominance, they should set a larger stop-loss space.
I hope it helps you ~ the source was sent to me by the futures company. ....