According to Zhuo Chuang's data, the profit of self-breeding and self-feeding pigs has dropped to -58 yuan/head, and the profit of outsourcing piglets has dropped to -366 yuan/head, which makes farmers feel quite chilling.
The pig market has fallen to a "new low" for more than half a year, especially the price of pigs has fallen so much that today it is "beaten" and tomorrow is the year after next. It seems that next year's pig price is ruined again.
Judging from the recent pig market trend, the market pessimism is fermenting, and the pig price is "falling endlessly" one after another, while the purchasing difficulty of slaughtering enterprises is weak, and the bearish sentiment still exists.
At present, it is farther away from the Spring Festival, and there are only a few days left for farmers to slaughter. Some big pigs that have been over-fattened by farmers will continue to sell after falling, which makes the pig market panic.
The pressure of centralized slaughter on the supply side is not reduced. According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, at the end of 2022 165438+ 10, there were 43.88 million sows, which continued to increase by 0.2% month-on-month, but the growth rate slowed down, which was 7.02% higher than the normal stock.
It shows that China's pig production capacity continues to be abundant, and the main pressure on the short-term supply market lies in the concentration of big fat pigs before the Spring Festival, and the average weight of slaughtered pigs is still at a high level. If the inventory is not completely consumed before the Spring Festival, the supply pressure will continue to put pressure on the post-holiday market.
Judging from the short-term consumer performance, the market consumer performance is acceptable compared with the previous period, but the supply pressure is not reduced, futures and spot prices continue to be weak, and consumption still shows signs of decline.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of June 5438+ 10/2, June 5438+04, the average price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 23.98 yuan/kg, up 0.3% from yesterday.
It should be noted that tomorrow is a small year. According to the usual practice, the demand for stocking will gradually come to an end before the Spring Festival, and it will enter the off-season of traditional consumption after the holiday, indicating that the demand side has a weakening trend.
The National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference on June 5438+02, saying that domestic pig prices have declined recently due to factors such as weak pork consumption and phased increase in pig supply.
According to the survey data of institutions, as of June, 2022, 1 1, the number of listed enterprises in China accounted for 25%, the number of fertile sows 10000 14%, and fertile sows1000/.
At the same time, assuming that the performance of fertile sows is average, according to the stock of breeding pigs in the Ministry of Agriculture, the slaughter of fat pigs is at a cyclical low point from June to March 2023, and it is expected that the supply will decline to some extent.
Therefore, all parties believe that the current domestic pig production capacity is generally in a reasonable range, and it is expected that the price fluctuation in 2023 will be less than that in 2022.
At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, will continue to pay close attention to market dynamics and take timely control measures to promote the smooth operation of the live pig market in accordance with the provisions of the Plan.
According to the monitoring of the pig price system, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose by 2 and fell by 23, which was 1, and the falling areas accounted for 89% of all monitored areas.
The average price of live pigs monitored nationwide was the lowest 6.95 yuan/kg, the highest 7.2 1 yuan/kg, and the overall average price of live pigs was 7.08 yuan/kg, which was 0.32 yuan/kg lower than the national average price yesterday. Today, the overall price of live pigs shows a trend of "massive decline".
According to the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises, the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises has increased, and some enterprises have stopped planning. Due to the obvious increase in the order volume of some slaughter enterprises in the north, the slaughter volume of slaughterhouses continues to show a high level.
The sales enthusiasm of farming groups in the south is still strong, and the arrival of pig sources in the south is on the high side. The pig sources of pig enterprises in many regions have been transferred to the north.
The ex-factory price of white pigs in Northeast slaughter enterprises increased by 500 yuan/ton, while that in Shandong slaughter enterprises increased by 1.500 yuan/ton, and the efforts of white pigs in slaughter enterprises increased significantly.
Forecast of pig price trend tomorrow: According to the recent analysis of pig market factors, northern traders still have a certain bullish sentiment, while southern traders still have a certain bearish sentiment. It is expected that the pig price will show a trend of "shock adjustment" tomorrow.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange views on the pig market, grasp the market dynamics, collect and share, and raise pigs to make a fortune.