Date: May 22, 2006 Source: Ministry of Agriculture Author:

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Recently, the spokesman for the market and economic information of the Ministry of Agriculture released the monitoring information of the wheat market in April 2006.

1. The growth of winter wheat is basically normal, but unfavorable meteorological conditions have an impact on the growth of wheat.

In April, winter wheat in northwest and north China has entered jointing stage, winter wheat in Huanghuai and Jianghuai areas has entered heading stage, and winter wheat in southwest China has entered filling stage. In mid-April, strong cooling weather occurred in most parts of northern China, which caused some freezing damage to the winter wheat that had been jointing. However, it has brought precipitation to most northern areas, improved soil moisture in arid areas, and is very beneficial to the growth and development of winter wheat and spring sowing production. Strong cooling, precipitation, thunderstorms and windy weather occurred in some parts of southern China, which affected the growth and development of wheat. In May, the development of drought in northwest, north China, Jianghuai and southwest China was not conducive to the growth of winter wheat. Soil moisture loss is serious in some areas of Sichuan Basin, which has certain influence on wheat filling maturity.

Second, in the first quarter, wheat imports decreased significantly year-on-year, while exports increased significantly.

According to customs statistics, China imported 94,500 tons of wheat in March, a year-on-year decrease of 85.70%; The export volume is very small, only 200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 97.05%. From June to March, the cumulative import of wheat was 1, 4 1.7 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 92.55%; The cumulative export was 47,300 tons, up by 1.29 times; The cumulative net import was 98,400 tons, down 94.78% year-on-year.

Three, the domestic wheat supply and demand is still in a tight balance, the international wheat production and inventory decline.

It is predicted that in 2005/06 (June-May of that year), the domestic wheat output will increase, the import volume will be greatly reduced, and the new supply will be slightly reduced. The total consumption of wheat is slightly lower than that of the previous year, and both feed consumption and industrial consumption have decreased. It is estimated that the final inventory of wheat in the whole society will decrease slightly compared with the previous year, and the domestic wheat supply and demand are still in a tight balance.

Internationally, according to the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture in April, the global wheat production in 2005/06 was 616.77 million tons, which was 1.92% lower than the previous year, of which the United States and the European Union reduced their production by 2.48% and 10.37% respectively, while Australia and Russia increased their production by 8.40% and 5.00% respectively. The total supply of wheat was 766.4 million tons, a slight increase of 0.75% over the previous year. Wheat consumption was 623.77 million tons, up 2. 17% over the previous year, mainly due to the increase in feed consumption, reaching113.36 million tons, up 6.08% over the previous year. As the consumption in that year is greater than the new supply, it is estimated that the global wheat inventory will drop to 654.38+04.263 million tons at the end of the year, down by 5.03% compared with the previous year, and the consumption ratio of global wheat inventory will be 22.87%, down by 654.38+0.73 percentage points compared with the previous year.

Due to the sharp decrease in imports from major importing countries, it is expected that the global import and export trade volume of wheat will decrease in 2005/06. Among them, the import volume was/kloc-0.07 million tons, a decrease of 2.60% over the previous year; The export volume 1 103 1 10,000 tons decreased by 0.48%.

Fourth, domestic prices have fallen steadily, and international prices have fluctuated at a high level.

The purchase price of wheat in the main producing areas decreased slightly. In the early stage of new grain harvest, farmers continued to sell stored grain in order to make room for storage. However, due to weak demand for purchase, the purchase price in the main producing areas declined steadily. In April, the average purchase price of wheat in the three major producing areas of Hebei, Shandong and Henan was 67.50 yuan per 50 kg, down 0.78% from last month and 7.79% from the same period last year. Among them, the purchase price of wheat in Hebei Province is 73.33 yuan per 50 kilograms, which is the same as last month; Shandong 69. 15 yuan, down from last month1.43%; Henan is 62.88 yuan, down 0.69% from last month, and the purchase price is lower than the minimum purchase price released by the state in February this year.

The wholesale price of wheat in China is generally low. In April, the wheat rotation activities of grain reserve enterprises continued, and storage enterprises in some areas accelerated delivery, increasing the spot supply of wheat market; At the same time, the consumption of flour is in the off-season, the demand for wheat is weak, the domestic wholesale price of wheat is generally lower, and the price of ordinary wheat is lower than that of last month. In April, the average wholesale price of ordinary wheat in Zhengzhou grain wholesale market was 1430 yuan/ton, down 3.05% from the previous month, up 2.28 percentage points from the previous month's 0.67% and down 8.04% year-on-year. The wholesale price of high-quality wheat was 1585 yuan/ton, down 3.06% from last month, the first drop since July 2005.

Internationally, the spot price of wheat period fluctuated at a high level. In April, the price of wheat in the international market rose again, which has been at the highest level in three years. In April, the average FOB price of hard red winter wheat (protein content 12%) in the Gulf of Mexico was 190.25 USD/ton, up 1.33% from the previous month and 27.47% from the same period last year. The F.O.B. price of hard red spring wheat (protein content 14%) in Northwest Pacific Port was US$ 203.25/ton, up 4. 10% month-on-month and 6.14% year-on-year.

In terms of futures, the average price of hard red winter wheat futures on Kansas Futures Exchange in April was 160.06 USD/ton, up 1.72% month-on-month and up 34.63% year-on-year. The futures price of hard red spring wheat on Minneapolis Exchange was 153.33 USD/ton, up 0.68% from the previous month and 28.55% from the same period last year. The increase in futures prices is the highest this year.

The main reason for the fluctuation of wheat price in the United States is that the weather in the hard red winter wheat producing areas in the southern plain of the United States (Texas and Oklahoma) is hot and dry in the middle and early April, which is unfavorable to the growth of winter wheat and the price of wheat futures rises. It rained in the middle and late April and the price dropped. The Texas Bureau of Agricultural Statistics predicts that the state's wheat output this year will be 4 1.7 million bushels, which will be the lowest level since 1.97 1. In the third week of April, the weekly crop report released by the US government showed that the excellent rate of winter wheat in the United States decreased by 30 percentage points compared with the same period of last year.

At present, the after-tax price of imported wheat is higher than that of domestic wheat.

According to the preliminary estimation of import duties, value-added tax and port miscellaneous fees, the after-tax price of hard red winter wheat (protein content 12%) in the Gulf of Mexico in April was higher than the wholesale price of domestic high-quality wheat transported to the sales area in the same period.