For the market operation in the first quarter, the fund's expectations are highly consistent: shock, limited upside. The following small series will tell you which investment opportunities you should pay attention to when the upside is limited.
Based on the above expectations, bottom-up stock selection is even more important. Most funds said that in the future, the investment style will prefer medium and large-cap stocks, and the financial sector is expected to obtain excess returns. Theme investment focuses on regional economy, new energy and World Expo. In addition, real estate stocks are expected to have staged investment opportunities, focusing on second-and third-tier real estate stocks.
Large-cap stocks in style preference
In the view of most funds, there has been a structural bubble in small-cap stocks. The continuous increase of IPO and the reduction of "size and size" of small-cap stocks will become long-term factors to increase the supply of small-cap stocks and depress their valuation. The introduction of stock index futures has a long-term positive impact on large-cap stocks, and the future investment style will be biased towards large-cap stocks.
The optimization of TEDA ABN Amro's market value shows that from the historical statistics, this round of small-cap stocks has been stronger than large-cap stocks for four months, which can be in the forefront of the A-share market in the past five years, and the valuation premium of small-cap stocks relative to large-cap stocks has also reached a record high.
"The market may continue the strength of small and medium-sized stocks at the beginning of the next stage, but the probability of switching to market style is increasing. The main reason is that the valuation premium of small and medium-sized stocks is too high. " Harvest value-added services said, "This change is not necessarily done in an offensive way, but may be realized in the process of shock or decline. However, the excess return of large-cap stocks in the conversion process will not be too high. "
CCB Preferred Growth believes that the introduction of stock index futures will become another short-term factor that disturbs market volatility, and at the same time, the style transformation of the market may be completed by this. After all, compared with large-cap stocks, the excess returns of small and medium-sized companies in the fourth quarter have reached the historical head.
There is limited room for market growth.
In Xinghua's view, the high valuation of the overall market, especially the high valuation of small and medium-sized stocks, limits the room for further market growth.
Huaxia dividend is more pessimistic, thinking that the recovery of the real economy leads to an increase in capital demand, and it is difficult for the stock market to have a trend opportunity. As time goes by, there will be downward pressure on the overall market valuation.
"The market will show more structural opportunities and frequent changes between industries." Harvest Growth said, "The downside risks mainly come from the sectors that achieved huge excess returns in 2009, while the opportunities for large-cap stocks are still relatively limited."
It is worth noting that CCB Advantage Power believes that two key points are expected to change the current market volatility pattern. First, the good performance data of financial stocks in the first quarter and the possible policy warm wind may be able to realize size conversion and open up space for market valuation; First, in the second half of the year, when the market gradually accepts the inevitability of policy withdrawal, the trend of economic recovery is transformed into the actual profit growth rate of the real economy, and the rapid decline of dynamic P/E ratio is also expected to open up the current valuation space.
Pay attention to five investment opportunities
In the fund's view, the differences in operating and profitability of listed companies make the performance of different companies in the same field more different, so the selection of individual stocks is becoming more and more important. In terms of investment direction, the future will focus on five major investment opportunities.
Boss franchise value indicated that with the formation of interest rate hike expectation, the bargaining power of bank lending gradually improved, and the profitability of banks gradually recovered. Although the scale of lending is limited to some extent, low valuation and the recovery of profitability will offset this part of the risk.
Fund Jintai said that the industry level focuses on domestic consumption; On the theme level, one is to pay attention to energy conservation and emission reduction and low-carbon economy; The other is to pay attention to financial innovation, such as stock index futures and margin financing and securities lending; The third is to pay attention to companies that have room for asset expansion and industry integration.
Regarding the investment in real estate stocks, Bank of Communications Schroeder Blue Chip believes that although real estate is suppressed by policy expectations, if there are differences between expectations and reality, there will also be staged opportunities. In addition, regional and thematic investment opportunities still exist, such as regional investment in Xinjiang, opportunities for the Shanghai World Expo, energy conservation and emission reduction.
Harvest theme said that in the first quarter, it focused on the four major investment themes of Xinjiang, new energy (smart grid, UHV, energy saving), large agriculture and military industry, focusing on the price changes of agricultural products and inflation expectations to prevent the risks of subsequent market adjustment.