At the same time, the preliminary statistics released by Eurostat on August 14 show that in the second quarter, the euro zone economy decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, which is the first time that the euro zone economy experienced negative growth month-on-month since the relevant statistics were started on June 1995. In the same period, the economy of Germany, the largest economy in the euro zone, fell by 0.5% month-on-month, while the other two economies, France and Italy, both fell by 0.3%.
In addition to the signs that the economic fundamentals of the United States and the euro zone are conducive to the rebound of the US dollar exchange rate, investors' different expectations of the future interest rate policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are also important factors to promote the exchange rate of the US dollar against the euro.
From September last year 18 to April 30 this year, in order to avoid the subprime mortgage crisis causing the US economy to fall into recession, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates seven times in a row, reducing the federal funds rate from 5.25% to 2.0%. However, since then, with the rising inflationary pressure in the United States, the Federal Reserve has stopped cutting interest rates. At present, it is generally believed that the latest interest rate cut cycle of the Federal Reserve may have ended, and the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the short term. With the stability of the financial market and the rising inflationary pressure, the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates is not even ruled out.
In the euro zone, from February 2005 to June last year, the European Central Bank raised interest rates eight times to curb inflation, raising the dominant interest rate in the euro zone from 2% to 4%. Since then, the European Central Bank has maintained the dominant interest rate in the euro zone at this relatively high level, and raised the dominant interest rate in the euro zone to 4.25% again in July this year.
Analysts pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the US federal funds rate has been lower than the dominant interest rate in the euro zone, which is an important factor in pushing the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar to record highs. However, in view of the risk of recession in the euro zone economy, it will be difficult for the European Central Bank to continue to raise interest rates in the short term, and it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to continue to cut interest rates. Therefore, the interest rate policies of the United States and the euro zone are more conducive to the appreciation of the dollar against the euro.
With the recent continuous appreciation of the US dollar, its influence has gradually emerged. The most obvious manifestation is that the appreciation of the US dollar has depressed the prices of commodities such as oil and grain denominated in US dollars in the international market. Taking oil prices as an example, the appreciation of the US dollar has curbed the speculative wave in the market and boosted the decline of oil prices. At present, the benchmark crude oil futures price in new york market has dropped to about 1 14 USD per barrel, which is more than 20% lower than the intraday record of 1 1 USD in July. In addition to crude oil, the appreciation of the US dollar has also depressed the prices of bulk commodities such as grain, which has helped to alleviate inflationary pressures on a global scale.
Analysts believe that the future trend of the US dollar exchange rate mainly depends on the economic fundamentals of the United States and Europe and the interest rate policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Among them, if the US economy gradually improves and the Federal Reserve's corresponding interest rate policy is added, the US dollar exchange rate is expected to continue to rise; On the contrary, the rebound of the dollar exchange rate may also be blocked.