An important indicator of the relationship between supply and demand is inventory. Tin inventory is divided into reported inventory and unreported inventory. Declared inventory, also known as "explicit inventory", refers to the inventory of the exchange. Unreported inventory, also known as "hidden inventory", refers to the inventory held by global manufacturers, traders and end users. Because the undeclared list will not be published regularly, it is difficult to count. Usually, inventory changes are measured by reporting inventory.
1, the important role of tin
International and domestic economic development Tin is an important non-ferrous metal, and its consumption is closely related to economic development. When the economy of a country or region develops rapidly, the consumption of tin will also increase simultaneously. Similarly, economic recession will lead to a decline in tin consumption in some industries, which will lead to fluctuations in tin prices. When analyzing the macroeconomic situation, there are two important indicators: one is the economic growth rate, or GDP growth rate, and the other is the industrial production growth rate. Import and Export Policy Tin is an important strategic resource of China. The national import and export policy for tin is to encourage imports and restrict exports. Since 2002, China has implemented the export quota management system for tin and tin products, and the export quota has been reduced year by year. Since June 65438+1 October1day, 2008, the state began to levy taxes on tin products exported, including 20% tin ore sand and tin concentrate, 10% non-alloy tin and 10% waste tin. That year, China became a net exporter of tin.
2. Indonesia is the largest tin exporter in the world.
In the past, it exported about 654.38 million tons of tin every year, accounting for more than a quarter of the global supply. Indonesia's export policy plays a vital role in tin supply. On July 20 13/day, the Indonesian government stipulated that the minimum purity of refined tin exported by tin smelting enterprises should be increased from 99.85% to 99.9%. After the introduction of the new regulations on August 30th, all tin ingots exported to Indonesia must be traded on the Indonesian Commodity and Derivatives Exchange before they can be exported. The increase of export threshold has greatly reduced the export volume of refined tin in Indonesia. In 20 14, Indonesia's tin export policy became stricter, and the country's tin exports further decreased, thus curbing the global tin supply.
3. Influencing factors of tin price
Market expectations play a role in fueling the rise and fall of prices. Changes in market expectations push up prices by changing supply and demand and market funds. If the market expects the price to rise in the future, traders and downstream enterprises will often order more actively, increase inventory and stimulate the market price to rise further; On the contrary, it will lower the price. Import and export policy Tin is one of the important nonferrous metals in China and an important strategic resource. The national import and export policy for tin is to encourage and restrict exports. China has implemented the export quota management system for tin and tin products since 2002. This shows that tin resources in China are extremely scarce. According to the theory of supply and demand, the price of tin futures will rise. Economic cycle Shanghai tin futures prices are not only affected by import and export policies, but also by the economic cycle. At different stages of the economic cycle, futures prices will rise or fall. If the domestic economy is in the stage of rapid development, the price of natural futures will also rise; On the contrary, if the economy is depressed, prices will fall.