Within a week, the pig price broke the deadlock that lasted for nearly a month, ushered in a continuous surge and broke through the 8 yuan/Jin mark.

Determined not to change, the state supported the market and announced the twelfth batch of pork purchasing and storage notices during the year; At the end of May, the stock of fertile sows in China was released, ending the yield callback of 10.

What impact does this series of operations and policies have on pig prices? Please see the following analysis for details:

Hot spot of live pig market this week

0 1, official announcement: the number of fertile sows turned positive in May.

According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, at the end of May, there were 4 1.92 million sows in China, an increase of 0.4% from the previous month, ending the continuous callback of 10 month.

Comments: The number of fertile sows in China is 4 1.92 million, with an increase of 0.4% from the previous month, which illustrates the following points: 1. The production capacity of live pigs is coming to an end.

This means that from March 2023, the number of live pigs will increase; At the end of 2.5 months, the number of fertile sows in China was 4 1 10,000/02.2% of the normal number. At present, the pig production capacity is reasonable and abundant, and it is unlikely that the pig price will rise sharply during the African swine fever period in previous years.

02, pig prices continued to rise, and this week's pig harvest continued.

Recently, huachu. Com announced the twelfth batch of pork purchasing and storage news this year, with a reserve of 40,000 tons, and the purchasing and storage time was June 17.

Storage enterprises are still dominated by social libraries.

Up to now, it is planned to collect and store 478,000 tons during the year.

Comments: Up to this plan, 478,000 tons have been collected and stored, the actual transaction volume is 99,900 tons, and the turnover rate is only 2 1.2 1%.

Although the starting price is rising, the continuous large-scale auction of purchasing and storage also shows the official intention of supporting the market and enhancing the confidence of farmers.

The new plan will increase the break-even point to 7: 1. Based on the current corn price of 2.94 yuan/kg monitored by the National Development and Reform Commission, the reasonable value of pig price is estimated to be 20.58 yuan/kg.

03. Development and Reform Commission: Pig prices are expected to generally pick up in the second half of the year.

A spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission said that in the future, with the reduction of domestic basic pig production capacity to a certain extent and the gradual increase of pork consumption in the second half of the year, the price of live pigs is expected to rebound as a whole.

From the perspective of futures market, the contract prices of live pigs due in September this year 1 1 and next year 1 have gradually increased, reflecting the market's expectation of price recovery in the later period.

However, we should also see that the current pig production capacity is reasonable and abundant. At the end of April, there were 4 1.77 million sows in China, which was in the green range of productivity. It is unlikely that the price of live pigs will rise sharply during African swine fever in previous years. It is expected that the price of pig food will run within the overall reasonable range.

Comments: According to the data of fertile sows in the previous period, it is expected that the supply of live pigs will decrease in the third and fourth quarters. With the improvement of epidemic prevention and control forms and the recovery of consumption, the second half of the year will turn into a state of "supply is less than demand".

It is expected that the bottom of pig price will gradually pick up during the year.

Source: Yinbao is integrated from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission.