1. what: What is probability bias?
In fact, our intuition and objective concepts are often inconsistent.
Behavioral psychologists call the probability that human beings think themselves: psychological probability. The inconsistency between mental probability and objective probability is called probability bias.
2. why: Why is there a probability bias?
Daniel Kahneman, a behavioral economist who won the Nobel Prize in Economics, believes that this bias mainly comes from three reasons:
Representative bias. In fact, it is a generalization. For example, if you find that several good friends are Pisces, you will feel that Pisces and I hit it off.
(1) A buddy of mine recently gave birth to a daughter, five babies and four boys in the delivery room. My buddy told me that there are more daughters than children now, and I am afraid I won't get married in the future. But at present, the ratio of men to women in the country is more than that of women.
(2) only see the similarities of people in the same constellation, ignoring more differences. When I was pregnant, I found pregnant women all over the street. I just bought a bag and found that many people also carried it. The fact has always existed in China, but I only paid attention to one of the boxes.
(3) I am a futures trader. In my work, I often come across generalizations and seeing is believing. We always observe the law of ups and downs first, and then make an investment decision according to the observed law. Sometimes a regular float will be pulled back and forth several times, but when I do it according to this law, I succeed several times, and the law has changed. I will still make a decision according to the last law, and finally the loss will be heavy. I can feel the change, this is my objective consciousness, but my subjective consciousness is still in the previous observation.
availability deviation. That is to say, seeing is believing. For example, a plane crash is bound to attract attention. This is because most of you will think that the plane is very dangerous, but in fact, as far as the death rate per kilometer of the plane is concerned, flying is 22 times safer than taking a car.
(1) Seeing is believing: When I often go to the hospital to see all kinds of patients, I feel that life is too fragile and dangerous everywhere. Only a few people actually get sick and have accidents.
(2) Seeing is believing: My wife once went out for a meal in Xiaomiao, and saw that the oil used by the owner of the small shop was very similar to ground oil, so she said at least 1 times when she came home that all the shops outside used gutter oil, so don't go out to eat
anchor sinking effect. That is to say, the first impression will lead you to judge the preferences of some people, the quality of some things, divorced from reality, and even unshakable.
Prejudice: I heard another person from my friend's mouth, and his first impression was completely known from his friend's mouth. If I didn't get in touch with him further or get to know him better, then this person's impression would stay first, and the Lord's oral impression would prevail. I don't know if this understanding is correct.
The impression of a brand will stay at the initial cognitive stage. Even though this product has changed with the times, I still feel that it is what I think. The first impression of people is also difficult to change, although reason is always reminding you not to be preconceived.
3. how: How to bypass (evade) probability bias and make correct business decisions?
first, learn math well, especially probability and statistics
second, don't trust your supervisor's intuition if there is no way to verify objective probability.
when the economic situation is good, the brave win; When the economic situation is bad, the wise win. In today's business world, with the symmetry of information and the improvement of rules, the Internet and big data have subverted the traditional business model. In the past, there were fewer and fewer business models that made a fortune by luck, so we should learn to use statistical probability of data to calculate and analyze rationally and find business opportunities, instead of judging by intuition and succeeding by luck.
? 1. Generalization: Let customers experience the course service for 3-5 times, and let them feel that they will enjoy the same quality course in the future.
2. Seeing is believing: arrange a sharing meeting for benchmarking students so that customers can see the learning results in the future.
3, preconceived: from the front desk to the sales, it gives customers a sense of enthusiasm and constantly conveys sincere values to customers.