While the global food crisis is constantly warning and getting worse, there has been a surprising scene in global food prices recently.
Recently, Chicago agricultural futures prices ushered in a full-line decline.
Corn prices fell by 3. 1% to close at $7.54/bushel, the lowest point since April 7;
Wheat prices fell by 6. 1%, even once, and finally closed at 10.88 USD/bushel, the lowest level since early May.
Soybean fell by 2.8%, the biggest drop since April 1 1.
As we all know, under the interaction of multiple reasons such as global energy and fertilizer market fluctuations, global food prices are rising and food crises are constantly being warned. While people are worried about food security, why did food prices suddenly fall across the board?
Careful analysis shows that the collective decline in food prices is mainly affected by several news:
1, Russia expressed its willingness to help restore the Black Sea port transportation.
In the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, in addition to the expected reduction in grain production due to the sharp drop in grain planting in Ukraine, another important impact is that after the conflict broke out, the entire Black Sea port was closed and Ukraine could not transport a large amount of grain.
Earlier, it was reported that about 25 million tons of grain in Ukraine could not be shipped out.
On the other hand, in the case of rising food prices and freight rates, food protectionism is on the rise in many countries, which makes the global food supply face a tense situation.
At this time, Russia recently expressed its willingness to help restore maritime transportation, including Ukrainian food exports.
Affected by this news, the market has expected the recovery of important transportation channels in Russia and Ukraine.
2. The sowing progress of American spring wheat has been greatly improved.
As we said before, in the global grain market, the wheat market fluctuates the most, because Russia and Ukraine are both important wheat exporters. Previously, India, France, etc. Due to the weather, everyone lowered their wheat production expectations, and India tightened its wheat exports, making the wheat market even more tense.
Earlier, American wheat also faced the expectation of large-scale production reduction.
On the one hand, winter wheat is affected by severe dry weather, and Kansas, which has the highest wheat yield in the United States, is devastated by extreme dry weather. 1,000 mu of wheat withered, and the expected yield decreased by more than 1/4. On the other hand, North Dakota, which produces half of American spring wheat, is just the opposite. Because there was too much precipitation, it was impossible to sow normally, and the sowing progress was once seriously slow.
However, after entering this week, the sowing situation of spring wheat has obviously improved.
The current sowing progress has also reached 73% beyond expectations, a significant increase compared with 49% last week.
In addition, Australia also welcomes good news, indicating that the amount of wheat sown is expected to increase by 1.4%.
Affected by these news, the price of wheat fell sharply.
3, multiple good news superposition
This includes Russia's previous statement that due to good weather, this year's grain harvest will be a record, with the total grain output reaching 65.438+0.3 billion tons, while the wheat output will reach a record 87 million tons, and the export volume will increase to 4.65438+0 million tons.
Secondly, Brazil, a big food country in South America, recently said that its fertilizer reserves are sufficient to ensure that it can be supplied until next year.
In addition, the latest planting report released by the United States shows that as of last week, corn planting has been completed 86% and soybean planting has been completed 66%. In the coming month, the weather will be good and there will be no extreme weather that seriously threatens the growth of crops.
So under the multiple news, the prices of wheat, corn and soybeans fell.
4. Has the grain risk warning been lifted?
Does the improvement of grain supply and the decline of grain across the board mean that the global food risk warning has been lifted?
I'm afraid it's too early to make such a judgment at present.
We have comprehensively analyzed before that the rise of food prices is affected by multiple factors, such as global inflation, the mismatch between supply and demand caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the impact of rising energy prices on the food market, and these factors have produced new effects and jointly pushed up global food prices.
Moreover, at present, it is difficult for any of these factors to return to normal in a short period of time, which means that the influence still exists.
In addition, this year's weather factors can not be ignored. The current growing season has just begun, and there is still a lot of room for change in the subsequent weather level. Therefore, the current decline in food prices does not mean that the early warning of the global food crisis has been lifted, and the market trend in the next few months is still crucial.
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