I. Main factors affecting the fluctuation of methanol futures price:
1, macroeconomic trends
As an important basic organic chemical raw material, methanol is widely used in the national economy, and the macroeconomic trend will inevitably affect the market demand of methanol, and then affect the price of methanol. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand, the sustained improvement of macro-economy will inevitably lead to an increase in methanol demand.
2. National policies
China's resource endowment is characterized by "rich coal, poor oil and little gas". With the decrease of oil resources and the increase of methanol production in the world today, methanol has become a trend as an alternative energy source.
3. International energy prices
Because more than 90% of international methanol production facilities use natural gas as raw material, the fluctuation of natural gas price will definitely affect the fluctuation of international methanol price. In recent years, oil prices have fluctuated widely at a high level, and methanol prices have also fluctuated frequently.
4. New production capacity at home and abroad
The expected consumption of methanol fuel, dimethyl ether and methanol to olefins has stimulated the large-scale construction of methanol. The new output in the international market in the future will have a huge external impact on the methanol market in China. It will have a wide and far-reaching impact on the future methanol price.
5. Production reduction of large-scale devices at home and abroad.
Due to the increasing scale of methanol plant, the plant with an annual output of10 million tons has been put into production. Once these large or super-large factories are unexpectedly overhauled or shut down, it will affect the market supply and cause price fluctuations.
6. Downstream demand
Methanol is an important organic chemical raw material and the fourth largest chemical raw material in China after ethylene, propylene and benzene. Widely used in chemical industry, medicine, light industry, textile and other industries.
7. Production cost
Coal, natural gas and coke oven gas are used as raw materials for methanol production in China, in which coal is the main raw material, followed by natural gas, and the proportion of coke oven gas has increased in recent two years.
8. Import and export
China is the largest consumer of methanol in the world, and it is also one of the fastest growing countries in the world. Some large international methanol production and trading enterprises have targeted the China market.
9. Transportation costs
China's coal, natural gas and other energy bases are mainly distributed in the northwest, while the consumption areas are concentrated in East China and South China. Generally speaking, the shortage of railway transportation capacity in the western region will still exist for a long time to come, and freight transportation will also show an upward trend. However, the characteristics of methanol varieties require the use of special tank cars for transportation, which easily leads to empty car return and waste of capacity, and also aggravates the tension of railway transportation to a certain extent, resulting in insufficient stability and flexibility of methanol transportation from the production area to the sales area, which can not be adjusted in time according to market changes, and will also have an impact on methanol prices to a certain extent.
10, degree of price linkage at home and abroad
The relationship between China methanol market and international methanol market is getting closer and closer, and the change of international methanol market has great influence on China methanol market.
1 1, weather factor
Due to weather factors, the downstream products of methanol are mainly formaldehyde, which leads to the change of methanol price.
12, inventory factor
The storage of methanol depends on a professional liquid chemical warehouse. Under the background of unbalanced production and consumption of methanol in China and greatly influenced by related transportation conditions, there is an obvious negative correlation between methanol prices in different regions and different time periods and local inventory levels, which are as follows: the inventory level is higher and the price is lower; Low inventory level and high price.