Will the spot gold price affect the price? The answer is that there is a correlation between the two, but I prefer that futures prices affect spot prices. The following figure shows the fixed price of LBMA gold at 20 13, which is the quotation of LBMA for spot gold every working day. We can see that when futures gold plummeted last year, spot gold was not spared, and the price went down all the way. 1. How to determine the transaction price in the commodity market? Or, what is the significance of the futures market in the commodity market? The function of futures is nothing more than price discovery and risk transfer. In mature commodity markets, such as Europe and America, spot prices are all formed by basis quotation. What is a basic quotation? That is, the price I sell is equal to the price of a futures contract MINUS or plus a "basis", and as a seller, the price I quote you as a buyer is only a basis. Compared with the spot market, the futures market has very low transaction cost and transparent price information because of the standardization of trading contracts, the credit endorsement of exchanges and a set of perfect trading systems and rules. In addition to spot producers/consumers, the futures market allows speculators without spot background to participate, which makes the futures market price reflect more people's views and information. 2. How do the spot market and futures market interact? Quite simply, it depends on the price difference and the relationship between supply and demand. The spot price of the same iphone is 100 yuan, 1 month later 1000 yuan. Buyers will definitely be willing to buy the spot, and sellers will definitely be willing to sell the futures, so the spot price will go up (some people buy it but the supply is in short supply and no one sells it, so the natural price will go up), while the futures price will go down (the supply exceeds the demand, so the natural price will go down), regardless of the arbitrage cost. Storage, insurance, etc. ) and other factors (distribution costs, transportation costs, etc. ), and finally the futures market and the spot market prices should tend to be consistent. In fact, the spread between the spot market and the futures market will naturally not be zero, and we don't have to make money until it is zero. Why did I say at the beginning that futures mainly affect the spot in the gold market? Well, I have to admit, I can't figure out how to explain this obvious thing to me. The supply of metals is much more stable than that of agricultural products. Many spot dealers look at the factors that affect spot prices and spot prices, so they are usually reflected in futures prices. In fact, the task of spot dealers is to judge whether the futures market is "correct", that is, to adjust the price difference of their own quotations.