The policies of the free trade zone focus on three points:

First, RMB external business.

Second, foreign investment settled.

Third, trade pilot projects with more international rules.

First, interest rate liberalization.

Since we want to ensure the free convertibility of the RMB, the core must be the marketization of interest rates. In this plan, it is clearly stated that the financial market interest rates will be liberalized in the region, and the asset side prices of financial institutions will be subject to market-based pricing. To put it bluntly, for the sheep pens in China that were relatively closed in the past, in this case, if the fences of the sheep pens and the entire grassland are removed, you may encounter wolves or famine. This way is to hope that the sheep can run faster. . Its main impact is the decline in profits of the banking industry.

1. Commercial banks are gradually affected by interest rate liberalization. Small and medium-sized financial institutions will face a reshuffle.

2. Interest rate liberalization can bring financial institutions with different functions and businesses to the same starting line, and competition in the industry will become increasingly fierce.

3. Loan prices will decline due to intensified competition. In particular, the price negotiations of large customers will fall significantly.

4. Bank interest spreads will further narrow, especially deposit interest rates, which will continue to rise, further squeezing bank profit margins.

5. Challenge banks’ risk management capabilities, asset and liability management capabilities, and independent pricing capabilities.

Impact on ordinary people

Once interest rate liberalization is fully realized, ordinary people's thinking and behavior of choosing banks to save money will definitely change significantly.

For mass customers, they will pay more attention to the stability and profitability of banks’ basic savings products, as well as the convenience and speed of bank financial services; for customers with certain financial strength, they will pay more attention to ensuring the safety of deposits. , financial convenience, while paying more attention to the services of bank investment products; for wealthy customers, they will pay more attention to the preservation and appreciation of assets and personalized financial service experience.

Second, the convertibility of RMB capital accounts will be carried out on a pilot basis (provided the risks are reliable)

1. Under the premise that the risks are controllable, RMB capital accounts can be implemented in the region Convertibility will be piloted first;

2. The cross-border use of RMB will be piloted first;

3. International foreign exchange management reform pilots will be explored, and the establishment of a pilot project similar to the free trade zone will be carried out. Adaptable foreign exchange management system.

4. (Gradually) In the future, corporate legal persons can achieve free convertibility of RMB in the free trade zone, but this will not be implemented for individuals for the time being.

5. The upper levels (may) require domestic enterprises to go out to carry out international investment, financing and financial management, and the state will provide institutional conveniences. The upper levels require the free trade zone to be built into an Asia-Pacific operations center, facing the Asia-Pacific center, and the country will also provide institutional conditions.

The above directly leads to the Shanghai Free Trade Zone:

1. It has become the base camp of RMB business, and the operation model of RMB business and the entire foreign exchange market is completely in line with international standards.

2. The realization of free convertibility of the RMB is a need to improve the investment of foreign-invested enterprises, as well as the external expansion and operating environment of Chinese enterprises, and to expand the scale of introducing foreign investment. Fairer and market-oriented conditions will be relatively relaxed for foreign capital operating in China.

3. Achieving free convertibility of the RMB will help further enhance the stability of the RMB currency value among the people. It also shows that the government has a package of supporting measures to lead the "open" economy.

4. The most important point is to revitalize the currency stock in response to the increasingly tightening investment environment. This is almost one of the core views of the entire free trade zone.

The impact on ordinary people

This is actually very obvious. The free convertibility of currency first makes travel easier. Secondly, ordinary people have so much money and there are few domestic investment channels. When it comes to banks, bank interest rates are low, so Chinese people have the right to invest overseas and diversify their investments.

Third, the establishment of a bonded zone

(Please note that it is an establishment, not a new one)

Shanghai is not just an ordinary bonded zone this time, although the details are not If it didn’t come out, the sign saying “Special Customs Supervision” might not be a simple gimmick.

The role of the bonded zone is nothing more than the following:

1. To facilitate service enterprises.

2. Expand the port functionality of Shanghai as a port, especially since Shanghai is different from Hong Kong. Shanghai is a port that can directly provide huge tax revenue to the central government.

3. Improve the re-export function and logistics function and attract a large number of export factories and bonded warehouses.

4. Integrated ports and centralized regulatory functions are conducive to import and export trade.

So the establishment of four new bonded zones and logistics parks this time (the establishment here refers to the new phase of investment development and new planning, not new establishments, these have existed before) is obviously to Expand Shanghai, a port that can directly contribute tax revenue, with greater efficiency in generating money and protect the weakening Shanghai port industry and import and export business.

The impact on ordinary people

This is simpler. This means that ordinary people can buy some cheap goods produced in China and designed by foreign countries. The most intuitive impact is on shopping.

For example, imported cars and electronic products that everyone is concerned about, as well as some original publishing products. The supporting facilities of the bonded zone may also involve educational products such as international schools. and cheaper and more efficient international logistics services.

Fourth, the establishment of foreign-funded banks, Sino-foreign joint venture banks jointly established by private and foreign capital, and foreign-funded credit companies is allowed, and the authority for some transactions and financing series (such as financial leasing and futures trading) is liberalized.

Qualified foreign-funded financial institutions are allowed to establish foreign-funded banks, and private capital and foreign-funded financial institutions are allowed to jointly establish Sino-foreign joint venture banks. It is understood that foreign-funded banks can carry out pilot RMB business in the bonded zone, but they do not enjoy national treatment and can engage in various retail and wholesale banking businesses, including accepting deposits, corporate financing, trade financing, financial activities, precious metal trading and securities trading, etc. However, foreign-invested payment institutions are allowed to apply for and obtain a "Payment Business License" from the People's Bank of China with reference to the "Measures for the Administration of Payment by Non-Financial Institutions"; the establishment of foreign-invested credit investigation companies is allowed.

Secondly, overseas companies are gradually allowed to participate in commodity futures trading, and it is recommended that financial leasing companies be allowed to concurrently engage in commercial factoring business related to their main business

Finally, the financial services industry in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone The innovative pilot projects are mainly aimed at serving trade and investment. In addition to the above measures, during the pilot period, a pilot policy of export tax rebates for financial leasing goods will also be implemented for various financial leasing companies and project subsidiaries registered in the zone. It is recommended that there be no minimum registered capital limit for single-machine and single-ship subsidiaries established by financial leasing companies in the pilot zone, and it is recommended that financial leasing companies be allowed to concurrently operate commercial factoring business related to the main business.

This impact mainly lies in:

1. Implementing an open financial policy, liberalizing the financial market and integrating it into the international mainstream, causing direct competition between Chinese and foreign capital, and it is expected that in this way ways to cultivate the renewal and competitiveness of enterprises.

2. Allowing large-scale inflows and outflows of domestic and foreign capital and further relaxing financial business approval controls and foreign exchange controls are prerequisites for Shanghai to become an offshore currency port. However, this may also cause negative effects of open finance. Therefore, the research team this time is very cautious about the specific implementation of this item.

3. Foreign-funded banks obtain RMB business qualifications at one time, directly promoting RMB currency business, whether in normal transactions or derivatives packaging, and cross-border lending has become relatively feasible. So this will greatly facilitate offshore business, but the financial regulatory authorities are very cautious about this, but pilot policies are being brewed.

4. It intends to relax the capital requirements and business scope of financial leasing companies, allowing financial leasing companies to set up single-machine and single-ship subsidiaries in the pilot zone without minimum registered capital restrictions, and concurrently operate related to the main business. commercial factoring business. And it provides great support in taxation. The financial leasing industry has great demand in Shanghai, and there are many cross-border industrial investment companies in Shanghai. Various financial leasing companies have strong policy demands, and the introduction of preferential policies will promote the development of this industry.

5. Gradually allow overseas companies to participate in commodity futures trading. In the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, it will be proposed to allow overseas futures exchanges to designate or establish delivery warehouses for commodity futures. The biggest direct effect is to reduce transaction costs. The establishment of transaction warehouses in the free trade zone will also help improve the functionality of Shanghai's financial center.

Impact on ordinary people

First of all, for investors, the free trade zone provides more comprehensive financial services. Whether for overseas stocks or futures, the convenience is actually higher than Much higher. Secondly, with the participation of foreign-funded banks, they can compete with private capital and state-owned capital in terms of counter services. Naturally, people will have more choices, and their services will also be improved due to competition. At the same time, in terms of some service products, such as housing reserve funds, which everyone is paying close attention to, more competitors will inevitably give rise to more diversified transaction plans. However, considering the main businesses and customer groups of foreign capital, the actual impact on ordinary people is limited to these, which is still relatively limited.

Fifth, some Chinese banks are allowed to engage in offshore business;

When Shanghai establishes a free trade zone, it also needs to build an offshore financial market. The pilot zone also attempts to explore risk management and improve systems for the offshore business of domestic commercial banks, allowing qualified Chinese banks in the zone to engage in offshore business.

In the preliminary research, offshore business included studying the operating specifications of Chinese-funded banks’ pilot offshore financial business. Including anti-money laundering, avoidance of double taxation, information exchange and other details.

The main impacts are:

1. Since 2006, China’s offshore capital business has doubled, and the emergence of a free trade zone with established roots is undoubtedly More complete in channels.

2. For this group of customers who set up factories in the mainland, have capital overseas, and occupy the mainstream of investment in my country, the strong demand for working capital is bound to be a new nugget in the financial industry. This has been clearly reflected in various business indicators of Shenzhen-Hong Kong integration.

3. China currently has a large number of companies that need to "go global." Since 2012, when the European local economy has been weak, countless Chinese companies have used investment bundling to buy the European market, especially in China. Companies focusing on small emerging industries serve as the first stop for overseas expansion and even save commercial real estate in London.

Therefore, they increasingly require banks in their home countries to provide timely and convenient comprehensive overseas financial services, including overseas financing, group financial management, trade settlement, financial cost reduction, investment risk avoidance, investment transfer, and participation in domestic and overseas bidding. Serve. This has greatly reduced the costs of these enterprises and is also a new nugget for the domestic financial industry.

4. Regarding the reduction of foreign exchange and a large amount of inventory funds, I said that "revitalization" is one of the leading ideas of this free trade zone, so this policy is nothing more than this macro purpose reflect.

Impact on ordinary people

This actually has a relatively limited direct impact, mainly providing investment options for newly developed RMB products. For example, concept stocks already exist. The bad thing is that the money printing press is turned on again.

Sixth, free trade zone construction and real estate development.

1. The establishment of a free trade zone naturally involves the construction of the park, and the construction of the park involves real estate. Moreover, the more market-oriented policies of the free trade zone are obviously a shot in the arm for real estate developers who are gearing up.

2. With the innovation and evolution of the financial system in the free trade zone, integration mechanisms between private enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises, private finance and overseas capital in the free trade zone will continue to emerge, which can generate huge agglomeration The effective "supply chain finance" may also form a "relationship finance" service model like the German banking industry.

This is undoubtedly good news for the capital-intensive real estate industry. It can bring wider channels, faster speed, more choices and higher standards to the financing of real estate companies, thus effectively promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry.

3. As a country where real estate is a pillar industry, the successful construction of a free trade zone will undoubtedly become an important economic growth pole for Shanghai, East China and even the country.

Impact on ordinary people

For Shanghai, where the meaning of mainstream real estate is unclear, and high-end real estate and commercial real estate have obvious fluctuations, the free trade zone will undoubtedly make the real estate market stable and upward. For ordinary people, this is an obvious investment opportunity. Secondly, the construction of the free trade zone will drive the construction of supporting facilities and commercial development in several areas, and related aspects will be significantly improved in terms of living conditions and convenience. For those who have not bought a house, this is also a good regional choice. Finally, real estate (housing) in Shanghai has always been expensive but not luxurious. This time global real estate developers will participate in the development of supporting housing in the free trade zone, which will obviously improve the quality of housing. On the downside, housing prices may rise again.

Summary:

If progress goes well, there will probably be several forward-looking things on a macro level:

1. The Shanghai Free Trade Zone is a top-level design , free trade zones are a common practice in all countries, but whether an open economy with great opening and closing can be controlled is a test.

2. The Shanghai Free Trade Zone is expected to become a supply chain hub in the Pan-Asian region, build one of the world's leading commodity trading centers, and become a new growth point for the Chinese economy.

3. It is an attempt at a new regulatory system and new economic policy, an open strategy.

4. Developments similar to bonded zones may replace part of the "new urban development" as another form of policy-led investment dividends.

5. The RMB global strategy has begun its first battle