In 2022, the pig price will rise in June 5438+February, and the overall price may still fluctuate around the breakeven point 16 yuan/kg. It is estimated that the high price of pigs will appear in June 5438+February this year, and the high price may be around 18 yuan/kg. In 65438+February, the pig price may show the performance of "rising first, then falling and then rising", and the pig price may reach a stage high point. There is a steady decline in the northern region. Sanyuan pigs outside Heilongjiang fell by 0.2 yuan/kg, and the mainstream price was 5.4-6.0 yuan/kg; Jilin fell by 0.2 yuan/kg, and the mainstream price was 5.7-6.0 yuan/kg; Liaoning fell 0. 1 yuan/kg, and the mainstream price was 5.7-6. 1 yuan/kg. After the price of pigs rose over the weekend, farmers' enthusiasm for slaughter increased, while the situation of white stripes was average, and the willingness of slaughter enterprises to collect pigs at low prices still existed. The main line of pig prices in the south is stable. Sanyuan pigs outside Guangdong are stable, and the mainstream price is 6.3-6.9 yuan/kg; Guangxi rose by 0. 1 yuan/kg, and the mainstream price was 6.0-6.7 yuan/kg; Hainan fell by 0.2 yuan/kg, and the mainstream price was 7.6-8.0 yuan/kg.

Overall, it may still fluctuate around the breakeven point 16 yuan/kg. It is estimated that the peak of the annual pig price will appear in 65438+ February this year, and the high price may be around 18 yuan/kg. In 65438+February, the pig price may show the performance of "rising first, then falling and then rising", and the pig price may reach a stage high point. There is a steady decline in the northern region. Sanyuan pigs outside Heilongjiang fell by 0.2 yuan/kg, and the mainstream price was 5.4-6.0 yuan/kg; Jilin fell by 0.2 yuan/kg, and the mainstream price was 5.7-6.0 yuan/kg; Liaoning fell 0. 1 yuan/kg, and the mainstream price was 5.7-6. 1 yuan/kg. After the price of pigs rose over the weekend, farmers' enthusiasm for slaughter increased, while the situation of white stripes was average, and the willingness of slaughter enterprises to collect pigs at low prices still existed. The main line of pig prices in the south is stable. Sanyuan pigs outside Guangdong are stable, and the mainstream price is 6.3-6.9 yuan/kg; Guangxi rose by 0. 1 yuan/kg, and the mainstream price was 6.0-6.7 yuan/kg; Hainan fell by 0.2 yuan/kg, and the mainstream price was 7.6-8.0 yuan/kg. The local area was boosted by the Lantern Festival, and the slaughtering capacity of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly. However, the supply of live pigs in the market is abundant, and the motivation for rising pig prices is insufficient. At present, the slaughter weight of pigs has dropped to the normal level in previous years, indicating that there is no obvious capacity elimination behavior in the near future. Judging from the data of pig slaughter released in the early stage, the amount of pig slaughter is still at a high level, and it is difficult for the market to improve significantly in the short term. Some experts believe that the pig price will drop to 5.0 yuan/kg in March and April, and there will be a wave of rebound in April and May. August and September are in the rebound stage. The highest point in the whole year is 65438+February, and the pig price may reach.

In 2022, the pig price will rise in June 5438+February, and the overall price may still fluctuate around the breakeven point 16 yuan/kg. It is estimated that the high price of pigs will appear in June 5438+February this year, and the high price may be around 18 yuan/kg.

No, the state will regulate prices.

The reason for the decline in pig prices is the increase in slaughter+sluggish demand:

(1) Due to the expected increase in production of aquaculture companies, supply increased, superimposed consumption was depressed, and prices naturally fell. The output of Mu Yuan, Wenshi, Tianbang and other listed pig enterprises has increased.

(2) The temperature dropped in11month, which was originally the peak consumption season of pickled sausages, but it failed to meet expectations due to some well-known factors.

However, the decline in pork prices shows that there are huge investment opportunities in aquaculture. The trend will be to promote first and then suppress.

The essence of periodic fluctuation of hog price is mismatch between supply and demand and elimination of production capacity. Such a sharp drop in pork prices will help to force retail investors and small-scale breeding companies to withdraw at a loss, thus enhancing industry concentration, especially the lowest-cost livestock sources.

In the future, due to the increase of the market share of listed companies and the decrease of the proportion of retail investors, the pig cycle will become more gentle. A pork craze similar to 20 19-20 is unlikely to occur, but the logic of steady increase in pig prices and concentration of production capacity of listed companies has always been excellent. Pork is the weight of CPI, which helps to fight inflation. At the same time, it is also the weight of the consumer sector, and the valuation price-to-book ratio is at a historical low, far lower than the consumption of liquor.

Economic recovery depends on consumption, and consumption recovery depends on farming. The consumption valuation of liquor and tourism is much higher than that of aquaculture.

The reason for the decline in pig prices is the increase in slaughter+sluggish demand:

(1) Due to the expected increase in production of aquaculture companies, supply increased, superimposed consumption was depressed, and prices naturally fell. The output of Mu Yuan, Wenshi, Tianbang and other listed pig enterprises has increased.

(2) The temperature dropped in11month, which was originally the peak consumption season of pickled sausages, but it failed to meet expectations due to some well-known factors.

However, the decline in pork prices shows that there are huge investment opportunities in aquaculture. The trend will be to promote first and then suppress.

The essence of periodic fluctuation of hog price is mismatch between supply and demand and elimination of production capacity. Such a sharp drop in pork prices will help to force retail investors and small-scale breeding companies to withdraw at a loss, thus enhancing industry concentration, especially the lowest-cost livestock sources.

In the future, due to the increase of the market share of listed companies and the decrease of the proportion of retail investors, the pig cycle will become more gentle. A pork craze similar to 20 19-20 is unlikely to occur, but the logic of steady increase in pig prices and concentration of production capacity of listed companies has always been excellent. Pork is the weight of CPI, which helps to fight inflation. At the same time, it is also the weight of the consumer sector, and the valuation price-to-book ratio is at a historical low, far lower than the consumption of liquor.

Economic recovery depends on consumption, and consumption recovery depends on farming. The consumption valuation of liquor and tourism is much higher than that of aquaculture.