National pig price trend chart
From a regional perspective, today, the national pig price rose 17 provinces and fell 14 provinces. Among them, the price of pigs in the northern region rose in retaliation a few days after the "plunge"! In addition to the weak adjustment in Liaoning, Shanxi, Qinghai and Ningxia provinces, the pig prices in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and Gansu provinces all rose, with the single-day increase of 0.46 yuan/kg in Shaanxi Province and 0.25 yuan/kg in Gansu Province today.
Today, pig prices in southern China continue to be weakly adjusted! It is worth mentioning that the trend of pig prices in East China is "polarized", in which the pig prices in Anhui, Shandong and Zhejiang provinces rose again, with a single-day increase of 0.02-0. 17 yuan/kg, while the pig prices in Fujian, Jiangsu and Shanghai "collapsed", with Fujian dropping by 0.44 yuan/kg and Jiangsu dropping by 0.34 yuan/kg.
National pig price map
Pig prices in the rest of Central China, South China and Southwest China continued to drop slightly! Except that the pig prices in Henan, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Sichuan and Chongqing increased by 0.04-0. 14 yuan/kg today, the pig prices in Hunan, Hubei, Guangxi, Hainan, Guizhou, Yunnan and Tibet decreased by 0.04-0.25 yuan/kg today.
After adjustment, the reference price of live pigs in seven regions of China is as follows: the reference price of live pigs in Northeast China13.93-14.15 yuan/kg; The reference price of live pigs in North China 13.78- 14.96 yuan/kg; The reference price of live pigs in northwest China13.12-14.14 yuan/kg; The reference price of live pigs in Central China 13.85- 14.63 yuan/kg; The reference price of pig slaughter in East China is 14.08- 15.44 yuan/kg, in South China it is 14.22- 16.05 yuan/kg and in Southwest China it is13.67-1kg.
Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, predicts that it is unlikely that pig prices will rise or fall in the short term.
Especially after the Spring Festival this year, although the market consumption declined slightly, the price was relatively stable compared with previous years. For example, in some farmers' markets in Shandong, Hebei, Jilin and other places, the passenger flow of pork stalls has increased a lot compared with the same period last year.
In addition, there is another factor that does not support the deep drop in pig prices. According to the data monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, the ratio of pig to grain has dropped to 4.96, and the expected profit of farmers is -274.52 yuan/head. According to the regulations, when the price of pig food is lower than 5∶ 1, the government will issue a first-level warning to start purchasing and storage to boost market confidence.
The author believes that the pig price may continue to "grind the bottom" in the short term! Although the market is favorable and well supported, it is not enough to support the reversal of pig prices, and its rebound height depends on the rhythm of the breeding end. It is suggested that farmers should collect more market trends, arrange production reasonably and slaughter in batches.