The supply and demand of metals are affected by their own two related properties, such as copper, aluminum, zinc and lead, whose main properties are necessities of industrial products and manufacturing industries, so the market operating rate, market demand and the gap between supply and demand will have positive demand for them.
According to the report of the international copper industry organization, the gap between supply and demand of 20 1 1 copper is about 420,000 tons, and it gradually rises with the economic recovery.
The supply of zinc is still surplus. Under the environment of steady growth of consumption, the idea of upward shock remains unchanged.
The situation of oversupply in the aluminum market will be improved, the excess capacity will be reduced and the demand will remain strong, which will support the aluminum price in the second half of the year.
Conclusion: Base metals are growing steadily under the background of inflation.
The monetary attribute of gold itself determines its difference from ordinary non-ferrous metals. As an important tool for hedging, when a major event occurs in the national financial market, its price will be adjusted accordingly. At the same time, $20 10 almost lost its position as a "gold substitute", and the inflation effect brought by the devaluation of paper money became the main factor determining the price of gold.
We often mention that the soaring price of gold is determined by the current monetary system. Then, if we go back to the gold standard era, what should the price of gold be according to the current economic aggregate?
According to the statistics of the World Gold Council, at present, the global aboveground gold stock is163,000 tons, and the global confirmed underground gold reserves are about 26,000 tons. At the current rate of gold mining, it can probably be mined for 10 years. In 2009, the global economy totaled 57.53 trillion US dollars, of which the US economy totaled 14.27 trillion US dollars, accounting for14 of the global total. If the current economy is in a complete gold standard, it is necessary to measure the global economic aggregate with the current global gold stock, that is, 65.438+0.63 million tons of gold should be worth 57.53 trillion US dollars, that is, each ton of gold should be worth 352.9 million US dollars. The total amount of gold per ton is 32 150.72 ounces, that is, the value of gold per ounce is 352,900,000/32150.72 =10976.4 dollars. Therefore, it is completely reasonable to look at the price of gold with a complete gold standard idea and position it above $65,438+$00,000.
World Bank President Robert? Zoellick165438+1mid-October said that major economies should consider re-implementing the improved global gold standard to provide guidance for exchange rate changes. This shows that although the gold standard is only an expectation at present, with the increase of the crisis of confidence in the US dollar, the financial attribute of gold moving towards the gold standard will be further strengthened. In this context, the further strengthening of the financial attributes of gold should boost the sustained appreciation of gold. At present, the price of gold below $65,438+0,400 is low. Although the statement of 10000 USD gold price seems radical, it should be correct to think about the changing direction of gold price.
Technically, the London gold price fell below the short-term channel, and the retracement confirmed that it would go down again. The next target will challenge the support of the weekly channel, and the target is around $65,438 +0.300. If it falls below, it means that the intermediate adjustment has begun. Below you can see the vicinity of 1 180, which is a good opportunity for bulls to enter the market.