In 2006, China's monetary policy was tightened again and again, but the stock market rose all the way. When the stock market changed the face of the policy market, it appeared unprecedented characteristics that ran counter to the policy cycle. In 2006, the central bank successively introduced four tight monetary policies:
1.On April 27th, the central bank announced that it would raise the benchmark lending rate of financial institutions from 28th. The benchmark interest rate of one-year loans of financial institutions was raised by 0.27 percentage points, from 5.58% at that time to 5.85%, and the interest rates of other grades of loans were also adjusted accordingly;
2. 17 In May, the central bank issued10 billion yuan directional bills;
3.6 16, August 15, 1015, the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio for three consecutive times, each time by 0.5%, from the original 7.5% to 9%. Different from the previous reaction of the stock market to the tightening policy, the stock market did not fall because of the continuous introduction of tightening monetary policy by the central bank, but after the introduction of tightening monetary policy, the stock market opened lower and went higher, showing obvious characteristics of running against the policy cycle.
On April 8 18, the central bank announced that the benchmark interest rate for one-year RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions nationwide would be raised by 0.27% from June 19. The deposit interest rate increased from 2.25% to 2.52%, and the loan interest rate increased from 5.85% to 6. 12%. The benchmark interest rates for other grades of deposits and loans have also been adjusted accordingly. The increase of long-term interest rate is greater than that of short-term interest rate.
China stock market was founded 16 years ago. For most of the time, the stock market operated along the policy cycle. From the end of 1990 to the beginning of 1993, driven by the market economy, China's macro-policies were completely relaxed, and the stock market went out of a three-wave rising pattern. Since then, due to the overheating of the economy, the management has put forward the policy of "rectifying for three years", and the macro-policy has been tightened in an all-round way, and the stock market has also fallen for three consecutive years. After 1996, in order to stimulate economic growth, macro-policies were continuously relaxed, and the stock market came out of a big bull market of relaxed policies. Because of this, China stock market presents obvious characteristics of policy market. However, in 2006, the China stock market showed a rare feature of running against the policy cycle. After the market broke through 1500 in 2006, it has been in an upward trend, giving the empty side no chance to fight back. Judging from the technical figures at that time, the market has broken through the downward channel and entered the upward channel. The main reasons are as follows:
1.In 2006, the central bank continuously introduced a tight monetary policy to regulate the scale of fixed assets investment and credit, rather than the stock market. In the first half of 2006, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in China continued to increase. From June 5438 to February, the growth rate of fixed assets investment was 26.6%; 29.8% in March; 29.6% in April; 30.3% in May; In June it was 3 1.3%. The rising growth rate of fixed assets investment may lead to a new round of economic overheating. At the same time, the loan scale of China commercial banks is also expanding. In the first three months alone, banks issued loans of 65,438+0.26 trillion yuan, more than half of the central bank's annual credit line of 2.5 trillion yuan. The continuous expansion of fixed assets investment scale and credit scale has attracted great attention of the central government, so it has continuously introduced tight macro-control policies. However, the stock market has not been included in the goal of macro-control.
2. In 2006, China's economy showed high growth, and the economic cycle was in a continuous rising stage. In the first quarter of 2006, China's economic growth rate reached 10.2%, soared to110.3% in the second quarter and reached 10.7% in the third quarter. It is estimated that the annual economic growth rate in 2006 will reach 10.5%. In 2006, the bull market in China stock market appeared under the background of high economic growth.
3. Due to the depreciation trend of US dollar and the appreciation trend of RMB, China stock market has become a safe haven for foreign hot money, attracting a lot of foreign capital. Note that the entry of foreign capital is to preserve the value, which may not directly benefit the stock market, but some indirectly benefit the stock market.
At present, the bank interest rate in China is not too high compared with other countries in the world, even compared with the interest rate in China. There is still a lot of room for price increase in the future, which will improve the book performance of many companies.
5. In the next few years, there will be many important events in China to stimulate China's domestic demand, such as the 2008 Olympic Games, the 20 10 World Expo and the Asian Games, which will bring many opportunities to listed companies.
6. With the resumption of the issuance of new shares, it has brought a lot of vitality to the stock market, leading to record highs in the market index, which is conducive to doing more.
7. With the introduction of stock index futures and the subscription and issuance of some stock put warrants, they have the ability to resolve risks in the broader market, and they no longer have to be afraid of not selling more goods, which directly leads them to actively do more.
8. In order to support the split share structure reform, the management has continuously introduced preferential policies in the stock market, such as reducing stamp duty and increasing the stock issuance rate during the share reform. Under the background of tightening macro-control policies, the stock market financing policy has been relaxed, attracting a large amount of funds to continue to enter the market and promoting the stock market to continue to rise.
9. With the end of the share-trading reform of listed companies and the continuous improvement of corporate governance structure, there will be more and more high-quality growth companies.