By observing the position structure and its changes, we can get important information such as market capital allocation and main trend. Warehouse structure analysis can be subdivided into

(1) Position distribution of different contracts

The distribution of positions reflects the distribution of market funds and long-short energy in contracts and time periods. The position distribution of short-,medium-and long-term futures contracts is regular, uneven or abnormal, which is easy to provide conditions for technical extrusion and coercion. Recently, the transfer transactions between long-term contracts also have time regularity, which has become an incentive for price changes and can provide corresponding trading opportunities.

(2) Changes in major positions

Mainly used to observe market transactions, especially the momentum of the main institutions. We pay attention to the daily long and short positions published by domestic exchanges, the classified position reports published every day (we are most concerned about the changes in net positions of self-operated businesses) and the futures large positions reports published by foreign investors.

& nbsp 2. Structural analysis of basic differences

Theoretically, the basic structure between futures contracts is determined by the position fee. Generally, the basic structure of the forward market is near low and far high, and the farther the contract is, the greater the basic difference is due to the high position fee. However, in the case of extremely tight spot, the basic price difference of futures contracts may reverse the market pattern. At the same time, the imbalance of warehouse allocation structure and other factors may also lead to the imbalance of the basic price difference structure between contracts, that is, the price difference arrangement of individual contracts in the middle is abnormal. Even serious distortion. The abnormality of basic gap structure can provide many profit opportunities for trading, as well as professional basic gap trading. The change of the basis difference between contracts (premium and premium) also brings opportunities for hedging transactions at maturity. The difference of the same product in different markets is also an important factor that must be considered in cross-market hedging transactions.

At the same time, the structural change of basis can provide clues for judging the price trend. At different stages of the price cycle, the basis structure may be completely different. In a bear market, it basically shows the infrastructure of a positive market, but in a bull market, especially at the end of the bull market (including the beginning of the bear market), it usually shows the typical infrastructure.

3. Warehouse receipt and inventory analysis

In fact, the warehouse receipt and inventory of an exchange are inseparable, and the change of warehouse receipt is finally reflected in the change of inventory. Inventory change is one of the factors that affect the price change, but the inventory change is not as simple as the increase or decrease of quantity we see. In addition to hidden inventory, inventory is also closely related to the nature and changes of warehouse receipts. As a financing tool or controlled by large institutions, the acquisition of inventory is uncertain. So sometimes the inventory itself is just a tool to control the market price. We not only

(1) The change in the number of cancelled warehouses is because the number of cancelled warehouses reflects the future trend of inventory decline.

(2) Large warehouse receipt reports published regularly reflect the concentration of warehouse receipts. If warehouse receipts are concentrated in the hands of a few large institutions, it will increase the possibility of market manipulation.

(3) The regional distribution and warehousing changes of inventory. Unbalanced or unreasonable regional distribution of inventory can easily lead to local tension and unbalanced spot supply. Sometimes the increase or decrease of inventory concentrated in a registered warehouse will also affect the effectiveness of inventory increase or decrease on price changes.