What exactly is commodity futures? I believe many people are curious about this, right? This term may not be familiar to many people, and I don't know what it means, so Bian Xiao specially brought you what is called commodity futures, and I hope you like it.
What is commodity futures?
Commodity futures is a kind of futures contract with physical goods as the subject matter, which is a standardized agreement about buying and selling a certain number of physical goods on an agreed date in the future at the price agreed at the time of signing. Commodity futures trading is a standardized contract trading method for buying and selling specific commodities on futures exchanges.
Characteristics of commodity futures investment
(1) is small and wide. When investing in commodity futures, you can control 100% of the virtual capital only by paying 5% ~ 20% of the performance bond.
(2) transaction convenience. Because the key factors such as commodity quality and delivery place in futures contracts have been standardized, the interchangeability and liquidity of contracts are high.
(3) The information is open and the transaction efficiency is high. Futures trading enables traders to compete fairly under equal conditions through open bidding. At the same time, futures trading has a fixed place, procedures and rules, and it operates efficiently.
(4) Futures trading can be operated in two directions, which is simple and flexible. After paying the deposit, you can buy and sell futures contracts, and you only need a few instructions to reach a transaction in a few seconds or minutes.
(5) The performance of the contract is guaranteed. After the futures transaction is completed, it must be confirmed by the settlement department, and there is no need to worry about the performance of the transaction.
Commodity futures varieties
Commodity futures are the original varieties of futures trading. The variety of commodity futures trading is increasing with the progress of trading. From the traditional futures of agricultural products such as cereals and livestock products to the futures trading of various bulk primary products such as nonferrous metals, precious metals and energy.
(1) Agricultural products futures
Agricultural products are the earliest commodities that constitute futures trading. Including:
1. Grain futures include wheat futures, corn futures, soybean futures, soybean meal futures, red bean futures, rice futures, peanut futures and so on.
2 cash crop futures, including raw sugar, coffee, cocoa, orange juice, palm oil and rapeseed futures;
3. Livestock products futures, including meat products and fur products;
4. Forest products futures, especially timber futures and natural rubber futures.
At present, American exchanges, especially Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), are important centers of agricultural futures.
(2) Nonferrous metal futures
At present, there are 10 kinds of non-ferrous metals listed and traded in the international futures market, namely copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, palladium, platinum, gold and silver. Among them, gold, silver, platinum, palladium and other futures are also called precious metal futures because of their high value.
Non-ferrous metals are one of the more mature futures products in the world futures market today. At present, the world nonferrous metal futures trading is concentrated in London Metal Exchange, the New York Mercantile Exchange and Tokyo Industrial Products Exchange. In particular, the trading price of the London Metal Exchange futures contract is recognized as the pricing standard for non-ferrous metals trading all over the world. Copper futures trading in China Shanghai Futures Exchange has grown rapidly in recent years. At present, the turnover of a single copper variety has surpassed that of the New York Mercantile Exchange, ranking second in the world.
(3) Energy futures
Energy futures started at 1978. As a new commodity futures product, its trading is extremely active and its trading volume has been growing rapidly. At present, it is an important part of the international futures market, second only to agricultural products futures and interest rate futures, and surpassing metal futures.
Crude oil is the most important energy futures. At present, the important crude oil futures contracts in the world are: the New York Mercantile Exchange's light and low sulfur crude oil; Brent crude oil futures contract of London International Petroleum Exchange, etc.
Difference between stock index futures and commodity futures
The object of commodity futures is physical goods. Although the corresponding value range of commodity futures can be determined by combining the production cost, transportation cost, capital cost and delivery cost with the relationship between supply and demand, there is generally no authoritative and unique spot price as a reference in the spot market, and there are problems of information lag and authenticity in the spot price. Therefore, commodity futures investors are puzzled that the spot price in that area should be used as the benchmark price for analysis, so as to better judge the reasonable price range of commodity futures. Theoretically, the commodity futures price should be a function of the spot price in all regions (although it cannot be expressed), but it is difficult for investors to consider the spot price in all regions. Therefore, due to the influence of local factors, the spot price in some areas may deviate from the reasonable range based on historical data analysis, which leads to the wrong judgment of investors who take the spot price in this area as the benchmark price.
The subject matter of stock index futures is unique, transparent, open and accurate, and there is no lag problem. The price of stock index futures can be calculated according to theoretical formula, and with the convenience of spot trading, the market efficiency of stock index futures is higher than that of commodity futures. Therefore, stock index futures not only have fewer opportunities for spot arbitrage, but also have smaller arbitrage space. However, commodity futures have more arbitrage opportunities and more arbitrage space because of the lag and multiplicity of spot prices and the inconvenience of spot trading, which is one of the key differences between them. Because it is impossible for investors' portfolio assets to completely copy the underlying index (because it will lead to high transaction costs), the key crisis of spot arbitrage of stock index futures is the stability of spot portfolio assets relative to the underlying index β value. If the beta value of a basket of stocks changes greatly relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index after the arbitrage begins, it will lead to a great change in the beta value of portfolio assets, which will eventually lead to the failure of spot arbitrage trading of stock index futures (of course, unexpected gains may also be obtained).
Another difference is that the information value of the two hedging discs is different. Commodity futures hedging disk is generated randomly. As long as there is production and operation every day, it is possible to produce hedging. Therefore, the information value of commodity futures hedging is not great. The hedging disk of stock index futures has great information value, because the hedging disk of stock index futures is not randomly generated, and institutional investors will only hedge when the market trend changes or there is a major negative. Therefore, stock index futures hedging has the value of trend judgment. Tracking the ups and downs of stock index futures hedging can "dance" with institutions and escape in time when institutions adjust their strategic positions. In fact, investors in Taiwan Province Province found that tracking QFII stock index futures positions does have the function of judging the index trend. Personally, this is the most important difference between stock index futures and commodity futures, and commodity futures prices, especially agricultural futures prices, are particularly affected by seasonal factors.
The difference between financial futures and commodity futures
1. Financial futures have no actual underlying assets (such as stock index futures, etc.). ), and commodity futures are traded with physical commodities, such as agricultural products and metals. 2. The delivery of financial futures is very convenient. The delivery of commodity futures is more complicated, and besides the strict specification of delivery time, place and delivery method, the delivery grade should also be strictly divided. The delivery of financial futures is generally settled in cash, so it is much simpler. In addition, even if some financial futures (such as foreign exchange futures and bond futures) are delivered in kind, because these products are homogeneous, there is basically no transportation cost.
3. Some financial futures have a longer term than commodity futures, and the futures contract of long-term US government bonds can be valid for several years. Commodity futures prices, especially agricultural futures prices, are obviously affected by seasonal factors.
4. Differences in holding costs. The cost of holding a futures contract to the maturity date is the holding cost, which includes three items: storage cost, transportation cost and financing cost. All kinds of goods need to be put in storage, which requires storage fees, and financial futures contracts do not need storage fees. If the subject matter of financial futures is deposited in financial institutions, there are still interests, such as stock dividends, bond interest and foreign exchange interest, sometimes these interests will exceed the storage cost, resulting in holding income (that is, negative holding cost).
5. The blind spot of the delivery price of financial futures has been greatly reduced. In commodity futures, due to the existence of large delivery costs, these delivery costs bring certain losses to both long and short sides. In financial futures, because there is no transportation cost and storage cost, this price blind spot is greatly reduced.
6. It is difficult to be strong in financial futures. In commodity futures, sometimes there will be forced quotes, which usually show that there is a big difference in spot prices and it is beyond the reasonable range. A more serious forced position is that the manipulator controls both spot and futures. The forced liquidation of financial futures is difficult to happen because the financial spot market is a huge market, and it is not easy for bookmakers to manipulate it. Secondly, because of the existence of strong arbitrage power, they will bury those bookmakers who try to launch a short-selling market; Finally, for some financial futures with cash delivery, the final delivery price of futures contracts is the spot price at that time, which is equivalent to establishing a mandatory convergence guarantee system.