1, Carbon Neutralization: 1) Domestic carbon emissions from transportation account for about 10%, of which the annual emissions from road traffic are 750 million tons of CO2, accounting for 7%; About 20-25% of global carbon emissions come from transportation. 2) Improving the economy of fuel vehicles is the main means to reduce emissions in the short term, but in the medium and long term, it needs to rely on electric vehicles. At present, domestic electric passenger cars consume electricity per 100 km 15kWh, which is equivalent to 8.5kg CO2 emission, which is nearly 40% lower than that of fuel vehicles. With the increase of renewable energy in the future, it will further bring emission reduction effect.
2. Sales expectation: 65,438+0) Infineon predicts that the number of new energy vehicles in China will reach 9.7 million in 2025, with a penetration rate of 30% and a penetration rate of 50% in 2030. It can be seen that the industrial chain is expected to further increase the turnover of new energy vehicles in China. 2) BAIC Group predicts that the number of domestic zero-carbon commercial vehicles will reach more than 500,000 in 2025, corresponding to the permeability10%; In 2030, it will exceed 6.5438+0 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of over 25%; Call on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to realize the comprehensive utilization of new energy for commercial vehicles. 3) Volvo thinks that a large proportion of pure electric vehicles may appear in Europe in 2025, because the scale effect and residual value of fuel vehicles will be significantly reduced. 4) In 20021year, new cars in California13 were electric cars, but the proportion in other states was still low; However, the current government strongly supports new energy vehicles, and American car companies have also announced plans for new energy vehicles, among which Ford F 150 has received hundreds of thousands of orders.
3. Enterprise planning: 1) BMW 20 13-202 1 year cumulative sales of new energy vehicles 1 10,000 vehicles. The goal is to deliver 65,438+03 pure electric vehicles in 2023, 2 million pure electric vehicles in 2025, and at least 50% of global sales in 2030 will be pure electric vehicles. 2) GM plans to launch 30 electric vehicles worldwide by 2025, of which 20 will be launched in China, and Cadillac LYRIQ will be delivered in 2022Q3. 3) Volvo will become a pure electric brand in 2030. 4) Panasonic continues to increase the production capacity of American factories; In addition, three factories, including Dalian, jointly developed square batteries with Toyota; In 2022, 4680 will be put into production, increasing the production capacity of Geshan and achieving cobalt-free in three years.
4. Resource development: Guo Xuan Hi-Tech is optimistic about the development prospect of lithium resources in China. It is estimated that Yichun, Qinghai and Sichuan will speed up mining, in which the production capacity of Yichun in 2022-2025 will reach 15 and 28,320.5 million tons respectively, and the total domestic supply will reach 280,450,540,790 tons respectively. In addition, in the long run, the lithium battery industry will realize circular economy. It is estimated that in 2040, 65,438+0.55twh of global battery production will come from recycling.
On the afternoon of March 26th, high-level forum: Meeting the new stage of market-oriented development of new energy vehicles.
1, Miao x: electrification is expected to be a new stage of rapid growth by 20021to 2030. In 2022, the sales volume of fuel vehicles reached its peak, and in 2030, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was the same as that of fuel vehicles (the penetration rate was 50%). In 20021year, L2 accounted for 38% of new energy vehicles and 22% of all passenger cars, and this proportion is still increasing. In Beijing and other places 16, we will carry out the networking pilot of smart city infrastructure and intelligent networked vehicles. Beijing has completed 200 million digital transformation, with a total investment of 600 million in Guangzhou and more than 300 million in Wuhan.
2. Ouyang MG: The planned capacity of the battery in 2023 is 1 TWh, and the capacity in 2025 is close to 3TWh, while the domestic demand/shipment volume is expected to be 1.2 TWh (optimistic), which is cyclical surplus. In 2020, the recoverable reserves of lithium resources will reach 22 million tons, meeting the demand of new energy vehicles. It is estimated that all-solid-state batteries will account for 1% in 2030, and 500Wh/kg all-solid-state batteries will be industrialized in 2035. Chassis electric chassis is embodied in the integration of battery system and drive system, and the subversion lies in hub motor. Charging is divided into three stages: V 1G (time-selective charging) V2G (two-way charging) V2X (car charging everything). It is estimated that in 2040, the number of cars will be 300 million, and the number of bicycles will be 104 billion 65kwh, which is expected to participate in power grid regulation. In 2030, the development of V2G will accelerate.
3. Enterprise goal: Changan aims to have 202510.05 million vehicles, accounting for 35%, and 2030 will have 2.7 million vehicles, accounting for 60%. BYD had 654.38+0.8 million vehicles in February this year. In March this year, China's penetration rate was estimated to be over 28%, and it is expected to be 35% by the end of this year. Tucki will support XPILOT 4.0 hardware by the end of this year, and will launch XPILOT 4.0 software service in the first half of next year to realize point-to-point autonomous driving. It is estimated that 100 cities will be covered in 2023.
4. Ningde's new technology: the first high-efficiency group technology, the third generation CTP Kirin battery, the power consumption is higher than 468013%; The second thermal diffusion design, 202 1, increased the customer's requirements for non-thermal diffusion of battery pack to 86%. Ningde is expected to mass-produce 8 series NP products in 2023; The third chocolate power exchange technology, combined with EVOGO fast exchange station.
5. Intelligent driving platform: Baidu apollo is the first batch of national artificial intelligence open innovation platform, focusing on building road cloud maps and building a three-dimensional structure of digital foundation+intelligent engine+ecological application. Horizon operating system and chips continue to be developed. TogetherOS is an open source model, and the whole vehicle participates in OS+ system development, which greatly shortens the innovation cycle.
On the morning of March 27th, Power Battery Forum: The Road to Industrialization of the Next Generation Battery.
3. Xinwangda: Under the background of carbon neutrality, paying equal attention to energy saving and new energy vehicles is the key path to achieve the goal of double carbon in transportation. Xinwangda helps to achieve the double-carbon goal in the transportation field with the scheme of "pure electricity in the left hand and pure electricity in the right hand". The company's HEV battery has three advantages: ultra-high battery power ensures high fuel saving rate, long service life and maintenance-free, and modularization ensures high system compatibility. BEV focuses on ultra-fast rechargeable batteries.
4.BIC: Cylindrical power battery has great safety advantages, and at the same time, it has a more comprehensive characterization of the service life of the battery. It is equipped with a high nickel+silicon system to help long battery life, and it maintains the consistency of the whole life cycle under the radical chemical system. It is estimated that vats will account for 30% in 2025, which is close to 480GWh. The barriers of large cylindrical batteries are technology/equipment, raw materials, investment of automobile enterprises and high-quality production capacity. At present, there are few products whose consistency reaches the level of automobile specifications.
5.SES: The research and development of lithium metal battery started at 20 12, and has reached above 100Ah; Today; Now we will jointly develop prototype A with GM, Hyundai and Honda, enter prototype B next year, enter prototype C the year after next, and formally mass-produce in 2025.
On the afternoon of March 27th, commercial vehicles: the development path of electrification and intelligence.
Transport Services Department of the Ministry of Transport 1: The promotion and application of new energy vehicles in the field of transport services has reached a new level; During the tenth five-year plan period, new promotion targets will be further formulated. By the end of 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicles in urban public transportation, taxis and logistics distribution will reach 72%, 35% and 20% respectively. Strengthen the leading role of demonstration companies; Improve the relevant charging infrastructure.
2. Dean of Tsinghua University Vehicle and Transportation Research Institute: The trend of changing short-distance heavy trucks to electricity is obvious. The cost of a light fuel vehicle is equivalent to that of a fuel vehicle with a mass production scale of 20,000 tons. Heavy trucks mainly break through models over 80kg- 1000km. In the future, the life span of fuel cells needs to be broken, reaching 25000h in 2030, with a breakthrough in heat dissipation, meeting the requirements of 100km/h and a breakthrough in hydrogen storage cost.
3. Vice President of the Planning and Research Institute of the Ministry of Transport: The emission reduction path of commercial vehicles is deep electrification and intelligent and efficient. In the future, about 90% of medium and large passenger cars will exist in the form of pure electricity, and light trucks will be mainly electrified in the future, supplemented by other technical forms. The electricity and fuel of medium and heavy trucks are still developing in parallel, among which the daily transportation level (within 300km) can meet the demand, and the daily transportation level (300-500km) has higher electricity cost. Policy research on accelerating new energy integration of commercial vehicles.
4. General Manager of FAW New Energy Division: New energy strategic layout: released in September of 20021year, 15333. It is planned to sell1300/500,000 new energy vehicles in 2025/30/35, accounting for 20/50/70% of the total sales.
5. General Manager of Beiqi Futian: Take green energy as the main line, and build an energy-saving and carbon-reducing ecosystem with pure electric vehicles suitable for short and medium distances (within 200km), fuel cells suitable for medium and heavy-duty vehicles and medium and long distances (above 300km), and hybrid electric vehicles suitable for complex scenarios. It is estimated that the overall penetration rate of new energy in commercial vehicles will reach more than 10% in 2025, and the total number of commercial vehicles will be about 4.5 million, with the number of new energy commercial vehicles corresponding to 450,000-600,000.
6. Chairman of Sany Heavy Truck: In the electric heavy truck interchange mode, CLP's service fee accounts for 20%, vehicle-electricity separation lease fee accounts for 40%, and electricity fee accounts for 40%. At present, the economy of power exchange is not high compared with the charging mode; Direct selling mode is an inevitable way to connect big customers, and new energy heavy truck sales value the overall system scheme; Vehicle parts have not yet formed a stable supply chain relationship; At present, the industry is also facing challenges brought by the fluctuation of policies, power grids and raw material prices.
On the afternoon of March 27th, hydrogen energy: towards a new stage of scale demonstration.
1, Academician Chen QQ: Under the dual-carbon target, the peak carbon dioxide emission should be reduced and the utilization rate of renewable energy should be improved. China's renewable energy resource endowment is 2.7 times of the peak energy demand, but to solve the problem of stable supply, hydrogen energy is one of the better energy storage methods. China is rich in hydrogen energy resources, accounting for 1/3 of the world, but there are many impurities, high purification cost and high application cost. Integration of four networks and four streams promotes carbon-neutral digital economy.
2. Mr. Zhuang Xinfeng Maru Q: China's energy structure is rich in coal and less in oil and gas, which leads to high carbon emissions and limitations of renewable energy. Only hydrogen captured in combination with carbon is truly clean hydrogen. The application of green hydrogen is one of the most effective ways to reduce carbon emissions in chemical industry. Adding green hydrogen to methanol technology can make use of various urban tail gases to prepare green methanol projects.
3. committee of 100, Deputy Secretary-General of Electric Vehicles: the vision of hydrogen energy development (one million hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be on the road in 2035, and zero emissions will be achieved together with pure electric technology in 2050), the milestone of hydrogen fuel cell development (starting the commercial vehicle market in 2020, with 8,000-10000 vehicles and1000 hydrogen refueling stations, In 2025, the number of hydrogen refueling stations 1000 will be installed within the radius of 65,448 according to local conditions; in 2030-2035, the number of automobiles will be 800- 100, and more than 5,000 hydrogen refueling stations will be installed; the hydrogen fuel automobile market (in a rapid start-up period). The technical indicators of hydrogen fuel vehicles are approaching the goal of 2025, but the cost is still high. By the end of 2020, hydrogen stations118,2021hydrogen station 2 10. The cost of stack has reached the goal of 2020, but there is still a gap with the goal of 2025. In terms of popularization and application, a "3+2" pattern has initially formed nationwide).
4. Deputy Director of Securities and Futures Research Institute of Central University of Finance and Economics: According to the hydrogen energy industry planning of local governments, the output value will reach 800 billion in 2025, and it is expected to reach 1.55 trillion in 2030, with 76,000 vehicles in 2025, 200,000 vehicles in 2030, 954 hydrogen refueling stations in 2025 and 20301. Build a "1+2+4+N" hydrogen financial system consistent with the dual-carbon goal, and strengthen the innovative support of green finance for the whole hydrogen energy industry chain.
5. Chairman of Beijing Green Exchange: By the end of 20021,carbon trading had been completed with a total turnover of over 3 billion yuan; The hydrogen energy industry is expected to develop into a trillion-dollar market. The International Hydrogen Energy Association predicts that direct investment in hydrogen energy will be 700 billion US dollars in 2030, including 300 billion US dollars for hydrogen production, 200 billion US dollars for hydrogen energy distribution and 200 billion US dollars for hydrogen energy terminals.