1. Brief analysis of the global financial crisis in 2008

⑴ The global financial crisis was mainly caused by the real estate bubble in the United States and the leverage of financial derivatives. The reasons are as follows :

1. The Federal Reserve’s long-term low interest rate policy has caused bubbles in fixed asset investment and false economic prosperity;

2. Ineffective financial supervision of derivatives and credit ratings in the United States has resulted in The reappearance of an economy similar to the dot-com bubble has deeply affected all countries in the world;

3. The United States underestimated the harm of the subprime mortgage crisis and failed to correct it in an early stage and provide the necessary financial support. , resulting in a situation that is now difficult to deal with;

⑵ Consequences of the U.S. financial crisis:

1. It has caused a recession in the U.S. and global real economies, and many seemingly powerful countries have reached this level overnight.

2. The depth and breadth of the impact of this financial crisis are greater than that of the economic crisis from 1929 to 1933, because the current global economic integration has amplified the depth and breadth of the impact of the crisis. Breadth;

⑶ Forecast of US and global economic trends:

1. Although countries around the world have vowed to unite to rescue the market and have introduced astronomical rescue plans, are they effective? It remains to be seen in the coming months. Moreover, the financial nationalization problems caused by the bailout, the source of funds required for the bailout and its subsequent impact, whether the bailout only targets financial liquidity means are appropriate, and the real economy will also face "bailout" problems in the future (such as the automobile industry), etc. , everything is unknown.

2. Even if the global joint bailout is successful, it will take a long time, and a mid- to long-term economic recession is inevitable.

II. Analysis of the impact of the global financial crisis on China’s economy in 2008

1. Since China’s capital account of the balance of payments has not yet been fully liberalized, the scale of asset securitization is still in its infancy. , China has a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, these factors have prevented China from being severely impacted by the financial crisis;

2. However, the actual losses of China’s financial assets in the United States are also expected to be huge, and the specific figures will be determined in the future. It will take time to test and digest; (for example, CIC’s investments in Morgan Stanley, Blackstone, and money funds suffered heavy losses, and the losses on subprime mortgages and Lehman bonds held by major banks will also be huge. This is due to Ping An’s 90% huge loss. Investment losses can be seen)

3. Although China has not been hit by a serious financial crisis, the impact of the global financial crisis and economic recession has also severely impacted China. The intensification of global economic integration and international division of labor, as well as China's long-term development model of using external demand to support the economy, have determined that China can no longer stand out alone. As the saying goes, "When the nest is overturned, the eggs are not finished!

4. The world's giants cannot digest the crisis on their own. For example, the US$700 billion in bailout funds in the United States will certainly not pay for all of it themselves. China It is bound to become the ultimate payer group, it is just a question of how much to pay;

5. Although China has taken a series of measures to try to resolve the economic impact of this lack of external demand by stimulating strong domestic demand, But it is too late. The long-term external demand-driven economy cannot be changed in the short term. Moreover, China faces the triple threats of inflation, deflation, and stagflation, which will inevitably make China's policy formulation more difficult, and it can only choose between the two powers. Light. However, consumers’ psychological expectations have now changed. Even continuous interest rate cuts will not be able to stimulate domestic demand in the short term. A slowdown in economic development or even a short-term recession is possible;

3. Global Financial Crisis and The impact of the economic recession on the Chinese stock market

1. The direct impact of the global financial crisis is on listed entities that rely heavily on exports and financial institutions with large investments overseas. This part of the loss cannot be fully estimated at present. The final loss figure will also be astronomical, and the domino effect of the collapse of export-oriented companies will also unfold after the collapse of Hejun Group, and the death of more export-oriented companies will be inevitable;

2. Although the banking industry was directly affected by the financial crisis, due to my country's strict financial controls, the losses were relatively small and the water involved was not deep. In the medium and long term, China is expected to continue to cut interest rates. However, due to consumer concerns. Psychological expectations have changed, and more funds will temporarily flow back to banks in the short term. It will depend on how each bank responds.

3. The winter of the real estate industry has just begun, and the real estate industry has been in the past. In the past few years, a large number of bubbles have occurred due to the impact of overheated fixed asset investment, inflation, and the appreciation of the Chinese currency. After the bubble burst, some unfavorable factors emerged, such as the unfair land distribution system in the system (a large number of landowners emerged during the peak period). appeared, land values ??rose rapidly), housing prices rose much faster than consumer wages, and the continued decline of the stock market tied up a large amount of funds (consumers' property incomes shrank severely), etc. But the good news is that the assets of the real estate industry. The securitization reform is still in its infancy, thus avoiding a subprime crisis similar to that in the United States.

4. The impact of the crisis on the steel industry has begun to appear, as shown in the continued decline in steel prices and reduction in production capacity.

However, as far as China's steel industry is concerned, due to the expectation that China will boost domestic demand, it will inevitably provide more public goods, even at the risk of falling into inflation again, and the government will also relax fixed asset investment. For the steel and machinery manufacturing industry, the medium term is optimistic, at least it will not fall seriously;

5. The impact of energy industries such as petroleum and coal will be long-term, reflected in the continued low energy prices (due to lower demand) ), future risks are at a medium level. It may also be due to the rapid start of China's domestic demand that energy prices will not drop too fast. Now that most parts of China have entered the winter heating period, the demand for energy will be stable and sustained in the next six months.

6. Gold and other precious metals, and the luxury goods industry are not optimistic in the medium term. The reason is that the price of gold has overdrawn its value preservation in the past continuous rise, and winter is coming for the gold and its luxury goods industry. More funds will withdraw from this market, and consumers' purchases of physical goods will also plummet;

4. Regarding bailout

1. Real estate industry: Now we are targeting the bailout of the real estate industry Amid the raging debate, I think bailing out the market at this time is ridiculous and a disguised transfer of benefits that is a waste of taxpayers' money.

⑴ Judging from the factors that formed this real estate winter, it was the overheating of fixed asset investment, inflation, and the appreciation of the Chinese currency mentioned above that created a large number of bubbles. The huge profits of the real estate industry during the formation of this bubble are well known, and these profits must be given back under the regulation of the market;

⑵ The current housing prices are still too high compared to consumers’ wages, especially The late rise in real estate prices in small and medium-sized cities has not yet dropped significantly, and the future of the real estate industry should be determined by the market;

⑶ The impact of the financial crisis on the real estate industry is mainly reflected in the lack of demand, but this is exactly the reason why housing prices have caused by high. Chinese people have a serious "house-buying plot" and the potential purchasing power is huge, just because housing prices are too high. Once housing prices return to a reasonable level, a large amount of purchasing power will naturally revive the real estate industry, so there is no need to rescue the market.

2. Automobile industry

Compared to the real estate industry, the crisis in the automobile industry is about to be reflected in the continued decline in the purchasing power of automobiles. Perhaps this is the focus of attention. As we all know, the recent intensifying financial crisis has seriously affected the healthy development of the global economy. From Wall Street to the world, from the financial world to the real economy, governments of all countries are facing serious economic crises. So what we can see from this crisis What? How has our economy and Chinese companies been affected? For us, do Chinese companies have big opportunities or big challenges?

On October 14, a large number of websites specially planned the first issue of the "View the World" event - "The Impact of the US Financial Crisis on the Chinese Economy" and discussed the above issues with industry experts.

First of all, regarding the root cause of this financial crisis, Hou Yucheng, deputy director of the Financial Technology Research Center of the University of International Business and Economics, said that the financial turmoil in the United States eventually turned into a crisis, which was caused by price bubbles. Price bubbles Mainly reflected in the real estate market. The United States is confusing concepts by shifting the problem to financial derivatives. The fundamental problem is that the real estate bubble overexpands, eventually leading to an uncontrollable situation.

In recent years, technological progress and productivity improvements in the United States have led to rapid economic development. However, at a certain stage of its economic development, prices continue to rise to support its overall economic development. It is precisely because of this subtle difference that once a problem occurs in a certain area, the entire price system will collapse.

Dr. Shi Huihong, a researcher at the Financial Policy Research Center of Capital University of Economics and Business, believes that the root cause of the financial crisis lies in the financial mechanism of the United States, that is, credit derivatives. The principal and benefits of ordinary bonds can be expected. , after derivation, the principal changes and the interest rate also changes. For example, interest rates can be linked to exchange rates, and interest rates can be linked to many factors, which further magnifies risks. Especially for futures, when the interest rate is high, the number of losses becomes astronomical, which divides the entire economy into two poles, with huge profits on one side and huge losses on the other, and the economic system cannot be balanced.

Faced with this situation, governments around the world are currently trying their best to reverse the financial crisis, but how effective is it? Hou Yucheng said that including all current capital injections in Europe and the United States, including the establishment of various funds, the purpose is mainly to stabilize the market. On the whole, no substantive action has been taken. The purpose is to unite central banks of various countries to give market confidence, and first let the The financial system is stable and allows the real economy to operate normally.

When it comes to the current impact of the financial crisis on China's economy, Hou Yucheng believes that its main negative impact is on my country's foreign trade exports and financial fields, but from another perspective, whether it is the macroeconomic aspect or the development of small and medium-sized enterprises , this crisis may be a huge opportunity - forcing my country's export structure to upgrade, which requires macro decision-making to provide buffer opportunities for my country's small and medium-sized enterprises and large exporters.

Lian Jie, investment manager of the investment management headquarters of China Galaxy Investment Management Co., Ltd., said that in China's current environment where independent motivation is insufficient, the living environment is becoming increasingly harsh, and it can only be born in the process of industrial upgrading and industry integration. Create a stronger enterprise.

On another level, industries supported by rigid domestic demand are very worthy of attention. Our current domestic demand is not growing fast, but this growth is basically rigid and will not suddenly turn into negative growth, such as agriculture and fast-moving consumer goods. These are very good. investment opportunities.

Hou Yucheng believes that under the current economic situation, we can strengthen attention to domestic demand on the basis of stabilizing or minimizing the impact of exports. From the recently held Party Congress, we can find that the start of domestic demand, or the Manufacturing may become the major economic policy direction of our country in the next stage. As for agriculture and even the overall fields related to agriculture, it may be a point for my country to strengthen the development of domestic demand in the future. In the next step, our country is likely to provide appropriate support and promotion in the science and technology industry. On the one hand, we will develop the scientific and technological foundation, and on the other hand, we will try to create new consumption hot spots in this field.

What kind of industries can develop well in this crisis, and how can companies survive this crisis? Experts made suggestions for small and medium-sized enterprises:

Hou Yucheng: Small and medium-sized enterprises need to make major changes and improvements in their ideas for future development. This year and even in the future, the simple intensive and low-cost production model in the past will gradually encounter development bottlenecks. This requires the future development of my country's small and medium-sized enterprises to prepare for two aspects. First, first, the technology of small and medium-sized enterprises needs to be improved and Prepare. Secondly, the future development of my country's small and medium-sized enterprises, especially export-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises, needs to be equipped with talents who are familiar with the economic and financial fields.

Lian Jie: When it comes to the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, there is one point that needs to be mentioned, which is China’s financial environment. As China's financial environment overall lags behind the development of the real economy, there are opportunities for the financial industry. The financial industry will also produce many types of small businesses in the future, and they may live a good life. When investment companies select companies, they consider several factors in practice. The first is industry space. Even if it ranks first, there is only one million room for growth in the industry, so it will not be considered; the second is industry barriers, which restricts competition. Factors and design barriers prevent the latter from catching up or even easily entering this field to compete, which is very valuable.

As for the transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises, Shi Huihong believes that on the one hand, they can rely on their own strength, and on the other hand, they need to rely on external forces. Some governments should take responsibility for external forces. Whether it is foreign or domestic, the development of small and medium-sized enterprises often requires The government must provide corresponding policies, otherwise small and medium-sized enterprises will be very passive in competing with large enterprises. Hou Yucheng believes that small and medium-sized enterprises must start from their own development and cannot pin their development hopes entirely on the country. Whether it is China or internationally, the survival of the fittest is a normal phenomenon.

Finally, when the three experts talked about when Chinese companies will break through the financial crisis, they said: Under the current situation, small and medium-sized enterprises must actively expand other markets outside the United States, including the African market and the European market. , and even the Asian market, through crisis training, will improve its competitiveness with international companies and its ability to develop international markets. It will continue to improve its own strength. The pace of progress cannot be stopped. Opportunities will eventually come.

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