From the perspective of big fundamentals:

1). The deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 0.5 percentage points.

The People's Bank of China has decided to raise the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from May, 1965, and rural credit cooperatives and rural banks will not raise it for the time being.

2) Beijing stipulates that the same family can only buy one suite.

From now on, the same family can only temporarily buy a new commercial housing in Beijing; Commercial banks suspend the issuance of third and above housing loans; Non-residents' housing loans that cannot provide tax payment certificates or social insurance payment certificates of the city 1 year or above have also been suspended. New real estate policies in various places may be introduced one after another after May Day.

3). In April, the PMI index was 55.7%, and five industries reached more than 80%.

Judging from the purchase price index, the index has remained at a high level of over 60% for four consecutive months since last year 165438+ 10, and continues to climb. It reached 65. 1% in March and increased by 7.5 percentage points in April, reaching 72.6%. By industry, all 20 banks are above 50%, of which 13 industry is above 70% and five industries are above 80%. Inflation expectation pressure continues to increase.

4). Huijin lowered the dividend ratio of the three major banks to support refinancing.

Central Huijin Company announced that in order to support ICBC, CCB and BOC, its cash dividend ratio will be reduced from 50% to 45% in 2009, so as to improve the ability of the three banks to replenish capital through internal accumulation, and said that it will actively support and participate in the refinancing plans of various banks.

5). Real estate regulation plummeted. The market value of industry A shares evaporated by 2.3 trillion in two weeks.

On April 17, the State Council issued the "Notice on Resolutely Curbing the Excessive Rise of Housing Prices in Some Cities" and put forward ten measures, which were called the strictest, strongest and most targeted "Ten Articles of New China" by the industry.

6). US stocks fell.

Due to the disappointing two latest economic reports and the news that Goldman Sachs may be under criminal investigation, US stocks fell sharply on Friday, with the Dow down more than 150 points and the Standard & Poor's 500 index down more than 2%.

7). Net profit in the first quarter increased by over 60% year-on-year.

As of April 30th, the 2009 annual report and the first quarterly report of 20 18 15 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets all appeared. According to WIND's statistics, the accumulated net profit in 2009 was 10640. 1 trillion yuan, up 27.3% year-on-year. In the first quarter of this year, the accumulated net profit was 343.45 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 63% year-on-year; Excluding some new shares that did not disclose financial data in the third quarter of last year, the net profit in the first quarter also increased significantly, reaching 23.22%, and the listed companies as a whole handed over a pretty transcript.

The aggravation of inflation expectation, the acceleration of stock market expansion, the coming of refinancing wave, and the increasing pressure of structural adjustment in economic development are undoubtedly the root causes of the stock market depression, but the fuse is the emergence of "margin trading" and "stock index futures" that excite the market!

The emergence of "margin financing and securities lending" and "stock index futures" not only failed to inject new vitality into the market, but accelerated the pace of market decline.

The IPO of "the same share with different rights" has been released one after another, the scale of "grabbing money" has been shrinking, the "Dharma Sword" of the central bank's liquidity reduction measures "restricting the money supply" is still hanging on the stock market, and the national policy measures to suppress real estate are still being released ... These fundamentally determine the sinister environment in which the stock market relies heavily on funds and liquidity ... However, we can easily see from the sinister situation above. Only this source of funds has not been seen in the stock market, because the current downward trend of the stock market has not changed. Once the stock market starts to stabilize or the upward trend is established, it will inevitably lead to a continuous influx of funds. Let's look forward to the early arrival of this day.

Affected by the Greek-Portuguese debt crisis, the peripheral stock markets began to adjust at the former high pressure level, which once again made the environment of our stock market worse, such as the adjustment of Dow Jones Industrial Average and Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong.

Although the traditional technical analysis has lost its guiding significance in the evaluation of individual stocks because of the frequent occurrence of main cheating, because the index can not be manipulated by one or two bookmakers, the traditional technical analysis still has certain reference significance in the judgment of the market.

2. Technically, from the pure technical analysis, the first support is in the area of 2865-2868, the second strong support is in the area of 2803-2834, with a gap of 9.30- 10.9, and the third super support is in the area of 2760-2780, with a pressure level of 0.382.

Since April 19, when the stock index broke, sideways and broke again, the main funds in the market have been mainly pure outflows (see the analysis below). Therefore, the upper pressure level of the stock index did not break through any intraday rebound before, and it can only be regarded as an action of reversing the pressure level for the time being.

3. In terms of funds:

In the transaction-intensive areas caused by the departure of the main funds in the market, the situation of greater pressure at different levels can be described as heavy; Although the departure of main funds has slowed down, there is still no net inflow; Let's wait patiently for the moment when the main market capital flows in.