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April 2008 soybean oil price
This week (March 30-April 3), the domestic spot market of soybean oil continued to be revised downwards, which was limited by the sharp price increase of oil plants. Compared with last weekend, the adjustment range of northeast fourth-grade soybean oil is about -800 ~~ 0 yuan/ton, and the adjustment range of first-grade soybean oil is about -600 ~~ 0 yuan/ton. The fourth-grade soybean oil in North China decreased by 600 yuan/ton, and the first-grade soybean oil decreased by about 500~~ 800 yuan/ton. The fourth-grade soybean oil in East China decreased by 150 ~ 800 yuan/ton, and the first-grade soybean oil decreased by 250 ~ 900 yuan/ton. The fourth-grade soybean oil in South China decreased by 500 yuan/ton, and the first-grade soybean oil decreased by about 400 ~~ 600 yuan/ton.

The specific changes of soybean oil prices in each port area are shown in the following figure (unit: yuan/ton):

port

Tertiary soybean oil

Primary soybean oil

Last week

this week

High tide and low tide

Last week

this week

High tide and low tide

Dalian

13,400

13,400

-

13,500

13,500

-

Tianjin

12,300

1 1,700

-600

12,800

12,200

-600

sunlight

12, 150

1 1,600

-550

12,450

1 1,850

-600

Zhangjiagang

12,300

1 1,500

-800

12,600

12,200

-400

Ningbo

12,500

12,000

-500

12,800

12,300

-500

huangpu

12,000

1 1,500

-500

12,500

12, 100

-400

Second, factor analysis.

External shock

On Monday (March 3 1), the US Department of Agriculture released the March planting report: It is estimated that the soybean planting area in the United States will reach 74.79 million acres, an increase of1190,000 acres compared with 63.6 million acres in the same period of last year, with an increase of 18%. For soy products, there is no doubt that it is a huge negative. On Monday, CBOT soybean oil futures market continued its decline last Friday, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the domestic spot market and few transactions. In the CBOT soybean oil market on Tuesday and Wednesday, driven by technical buying and fund buying, CBOT soybean oil rose sharply by 2.57 cents to 3.50 cents on Wednesday (April 2), and traders' quotations rose slightly. The huge shock of the outer disk makes domestic oil plants cautious in quoting.

(2) Domestic market

It is reported that due to the huge decline in the external market in the early stage, there are domestic manufacturers washing ships. According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Commerce, enterprises declared 243,000 tons of soybean oil in March, up 12% year-on-year and down 30.6% month-on-month. At the same time, however, the actual shipments of domestic oil plants in March were not many, and some traders broke their contracts. At present, the purchase is very cautious, so the inventory pressure still exists.

Due to the recent sharp drop in the price of oil meal, the crushing profits of oil plants have suffered losses, so most domestic oil plants will stop production, and some oil plants may stop production until the end of the month, which is expected to support the price of oil meal.

The 30-day suspension of the three-week strike of Argentine soybean growers against raising export tariffs will turn the market's attention to soybean oil again, but it will take some time to resume normal trade. The cautious buying attitude and inventory in the domestic spot market will probably be the main factors restricting the rise of soybean oil. In the short term, the domestic spot market has rebounded sharply and lacks strong themes.

Pay attention to the trend of domestic and foreign markets during holidays.

The soybean oil column of Oriental Agricultural News is quite good, and the daily price trend is released every day. You can refer to it There are also service personnel who can consult online. Mainly free of charge. /breed4.aspx