In the first quarter, due to the sharp drop in the price of live pigs, the entire pig industry was mired in losses. A quarterly report released recently also showed that almost all listed pig enterprises suffered losses.
Among them, Muyuan lost 510.80 billion in the first quarter, and made a profit of only 6.9 billion in 20021year.
Among other giants, Wen's shares lost 3.598 billion yuan in the first quarter, New Hope lost 2.622 billion yuan, Zhengbang Technology lost 2.3 23. 14 billion yuan, and Tianbang shares lost 665 million yuan.
Under the pressure of market downturn, both large pig farms and small-scale farmers are "operating in debt".
However, there is a strange phenomenon in the market: it is also a loss. Most small-scale pig farmers are forced to withdraw their production capacity and withdraw from the pig market, while large pig enterprises are not only failing to withdraw their production capacity, but are constantly expanding against the trend!
Seeing this, many small-scale farmers have to start shelling pig enterprises again: the living space of small-scale farmers is getting smaller and smaller, and they are cornered by large-scale pig farms; It is the large pig enterprises that have seized the market of small retail investors.
So in the next 10 years, who will be more energetic, the large-scale pig farms or the small-scale farmers? Who can live more moist? Will small retail investors really disappear? Let's have a look! (Note: The small family mentioned here does not include family farms. The breeding scale of family farms is generally 60-80 sows, and the annual slaughter of fat pigs is between 1 1,000-2,000).
Before in-depth analysis of this problem, we need to understand the fact that pig raising will enter the era of low profit in the future! Why do you say that? There are two sets of data to support this view!
The empty column rate of large-scale sites has reached a record high, and pig raising will enter the era of low profit.
We know that due to the high market price in the previous two years, many large pig farms were built and expanded on a large scale in 2020 and 20021year. Originally, they wanted to put into production this year, but when they were ready to enter the market and put into production this year, the pig price was at a low point, and the pig farms built by large pig farms could only be empty, and the vacancy rate reached an all-time high.
In this regard, many online pigs have also done statistics on relevant data:
1. The production capacity of pig breeding in Mu Yuan has exceeded 70 million, and the slaughter target is 50 million in 2022, with an empty fence rate of about 28%.
2. The newly-built productive sow capacity is 6.5438+0.66 million, while the number of sows in stock at the end of 20021is only 6.5438+0.00 million, and the sow vacancy rate is 30%.
3. The production capacity of live pigs built by Jinxinnong is about 2.5 million. 202 1 year slaughter pigs 1068900, and the empty rate of fat pigs exceeds 50%.
4. Shi Wen Co., Ltd. has completed the production capacity of 46 million heads, and the target production in 2022 is 1.8-0.2 million heads.
The actual production capacity is only about 40% of the planned production capacity.
Pig farmers all know that empty pens are the biggest waste of resources and an important reason for raising the average breeding cost.
Therefore, large pig farms will not keep their own pig farms empty all the time, just waiting for better opportunities!
According to public data, as of March, there were 2.83 million sows in Mu Yuan, with reserve sows 1 10,000.
Shi Wen can breed sows 100- 165438+ 10,000, New Hope and Tianbang can breed sows 1 10,000. The production capacity reserves of major pig enterprises are quite sufficient!
In addition, according to the latest official data, the scale of China pig industry has reached 60%, that is, 60% of the country's pig slaughter is in the hands of large-scale pig farms.
In other words, there are not only sows in the hands of large-scale pig farms at present, but also spare space that can be put into production at any time. With these two conditions, as long as the price of live pigs rises to a certain profit level, a large number of large-scale pig farms can increase their output and quantity in a very short time, so that the supply of live pigs will no longer be in short supply. Then, the price of live pigs naturally does not have the basis of skyrocketing, and raising pigs will not appear in the previous "high profit" state, that is to say, raising pigs.
Why does raising pigs enter the era of low profit, and the living space of small households will be smaller?
In the so-called meager profit era, almost one pig can earn 100-200 yuan.
In this case, the profit of small farmers slaughtering 300 fat pigs a year is about 30,000-50,000, and it has to be said that this profit is not as much as that earned by working.
Therefore, in the context of "meager profit", raising pigs depends on scale if they want to make money!
If you want to live by raising pigs, you must develop to family farms on a large scale. The breeding scale of family farms is generally 60-80 sows, and the annual slaughter of fat pigs is between 1000-2000.
According to the annual output 1500 heads and profit 150 yuan of a family farm, the annual profit can be 225,000 yuan, which is almost better than the income of a couple who go out to work, and can guarantee the expenses of a family!
Therefore, under the background of meager profit, the space for small-scale farmers is getting smaller and smaller, and now there are only two outlets for small households: 1 and exit.
2. Expand the scale (to raise pigs as a sideline to supplement family income is not discussed here).
In addition to the increasingly obvious disadvantages in scale, there is another point that large pig enterprises are also crushing small-scale farmers!
In recent years, most large pig farms are laying out the development of the whole industrial chain. Mu Yuan is the pig enterprise with the longest industrial chain. Almost all other pig enterprises have slaughter tracks, and the further slaughter is food.
The layout of pig enterprises in slaughter and food fields is equivalent to having storage capacity.
When the price of pigs is low, pig enterprises can slaughter their pigs and process them into food. The shelf life of food is longer and the profit is higher, so that pig-raising enterprises can reduce the losses caused by raising pigs!
To put it more bluntly, a pig enterprise with slaughtering and food processing capabilities is equivalent to a countercyclical adjustment ability of "going into battle lightly". The pig price is not low, and the impact on pig enterprises will be smaller and smaller.
For them, the future play of the "pig cycle" will be the superposition of futures, spot, frozen products, fresh food and food, while the pig enterprises laid out through the whole industrial chain no longer only collect the profits from the breeding links, but also care about the profits of the whole industrial chain.
This is definitely not something that small-scale farmers can do.
Therefore, in general, the living space of small retail investors in the era of low profit will be narrower in the future, and what they can grasp is "controlling costs"! It is not so much a large-scale pig farm that forces small-scale farmers, but rather a natural law that every industry develops to scale!