Yide Futures Precious Metals Analyst

Gold and silver continued their recent gains, with new gold hitting a new high of 20 1 1 since September, and silver futures approaching the August high of 20 13 of $25 per ounce. In the past two weeks, gold and silver have accelerated upward, and the factors supporting the rise have not changed significantly. However, the deterioration of the American epidemic and geopolitical uncertainty may change the previous pattern of weak gold and strong silver.

From the cost of holding, the downward trend of the real interest rate and the dollar has not changed significantly. From the interest rate point of view, the recovery of inflation expectations will push down the real interest rate, but it should be noted that the negative impact of the epidemic on the economy and the intensification of geopolitical games may have an impact on the further recovery of inflation expectations. Nominal interest rate may replace inflation expectation to dominate real interest rate, making its downward speed slower than the current one, which will put some pressure on silver. From the exchange rate point of view, from the consumer confidence index in July to the initial jobless claims data last week, it shows that the economic data in the third quarter of the United States began to be affected by the deterioration of the epidemic, and the difference between Citigroup's economic accident index in the United States and Europe dropped sharply, which increased the pressure of dollar adjustment.

The trend of continuous inflow of funds has not changed. Since the beginning of this year, the increasing demand for gold and silver investment has not changed. As of the 24th, SPDR gold ETF increased its holdings by 336 tons during the year, an increase of 38%. An Shuo Silver ETF increased its holdings by 6100t, an increase of 54%. It can also be seen from the CFTC position data reflecting the flow of futures funds that the current market has continued the trend of increasing speculative net long positions and total positions since June, and no obvious capital outflow has been found.