The key to purchasing and storing is to prevent the pig price from rising too fast. The next four quarters will be the traditional peak season for pig consumption. Will the pig price rise sharply under the support of the Spring Festival effect on New Year's Day? Where is the higher point? In the face of further rising demand, supply-side changes have become the key to the market; There are great differences in the market between the price reduction of live pigs and the second fattening, which is also a dispute over the length of time when the price of live pigs remains high.
Faced with the high profit of breeding, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held several coordination meetings to study and deploy the stable production and supply of live pigs in the fourth quarter, requiring precise and comprehensive regulation. Some pig breeding enterprises have begun to maintain profitability in pig futures. The data shows that the main pig's 230 1 contract positions increased from 24,000 lots at the end of the second quarter to 40,000 lots at the end of the third quarter, and the positions increased by 6.5438+0.6 million lots. In order to improve the flexibility and autonomy of all parties involved in delivery, and provide more delivery options and delivery resources, the delivery business of pig futures agreement was officially launched on September 27.
In September, about 200,000 tons of pork were put into reserve.
During the National Day holiday, the price of live pigs is still rising slightly.
According to the statistics of China Pig Breeding Network, on June 3rd 10, the national average price of ternary pigs was 24.92 yuan/kg, which was twice as high as the low point of 2 1 1.78 yuan/kg in March, with an increase of11.50.
In September, the central and local governments released about 200,000 tons of government-reserved pork, which reached the highest level in history in a single month, and the price was lower than the market price, effectively ensuring the stable supply and price of live pigs and pork.
Behind the large pork reserves is the continuous rise in the price of live pigs. The data shows that by the end of the third quarter, the market price of foreign sanyuan pigs had risen to 24.22 yuan/kg, up 17.4% from the end of June. This shows that the price of live pigs increased by 17.4% in the third quarter.
Benefiting from the price increase, the pig breeding industry also ushered in a "comprehensive" improvement in profits in the third quarter of this year. By the week of September 30, the profit of autotrophic breeding rose to 799.35 yuan/head; The profit of outsourcing piglet breeding rose to 803.45438+0 yuan/head. Judging from the average breeding profit, in addition to the huge profits brought by the African swine fever epidemic, the current breeding profit has reached the high point of the breeding profit cycle.
"The main focus of purchasing and storage is to prevent the price of pigs from rising too fast." Zhu Zengyong, chief expert of international livestock product production and trade monitoring and early warning in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, analyzed that purchasing and storage mainly occurred when pig prices rose greatly, important festivals and short-term emergency supply.
According to the monitoring, during the week from September 19 to 23rd, the average weekly retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities increased by 30% year-on-year, which entered the warning range of "improving the government pork reserve adjustment mechanism and doing a good job in ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the pork market".
Before the National Day this year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a departmental coordination meeting in Beijing to study and deploy the stable production and supply of live pigs in the fourth quarter. The meeting called for strengthening situation analysis, judgment and information early warning, focusing on key indicators such as the number of fertile sows and the number of live pigs, increasing the frequency of information release and effectively guiding production; Accurately carry out comprehensive control and coordinate policies from three aspects: production, market and import; Further implement long-term support policies such as farming land, environmental protection and loans to stabilize farming expectations.
The supply of live pigs in the fourth quarter is still the focus.
The next four quarters will be the traditional peak season for pig consumption. Will pork prices rise sharply under the support of the Spring Festival effect on New Year's Day? Where is the higher point? Will there be structural contradictions between supply and demand? The market has different opinions on this.
CICC's back test based on historical data shows that the sales volume of fresh pork in the fourth quarter has generally increased month by month since September, and the average monthly sales volume in the fourth quarter is higher than that in the third quarter 13. 1 1%. Judging from the operating rate of slaughter enterprises in recent five years, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises has increased obviously since June 65438+ 10, and the monthly operating rate in the fourth quarter is 4.22% higher than that in the third quarter.
Obviously, the demand will rise further, and from the point of view of secondary fattening, the supply is also coming up further. According to Zhuo Chuang information research data, from August to September, the secondary fattening in northern areas such as Shandong and Henan accounted for 25% to 30% of the slaughter, and Hunan, Jiangxi and Hubei accounted for 28% to 30%.
Wang Ling, an analyst at East Asia Qianhai Securities, said that judging from the average annual pork consumption of 50 million tons in China, the scale of government pork reserves is limited, which has little impact on the consumer market. According to the data of China Feed Industry Association, the output of pig feed from June 5438 to August this year was 808 10000 tons, which was -7.9% year-on-year, reflecting that the supply of live pigs was still tight. In this tight supply and wide demand situation, the pig price boom in the fourth quarter of this year is still optimistic.
Guo, an analyst at CICC, believes that after the "Eleventh" effect, consumption weakened and secondary fattening gradually entered the market. From the middle of 10 to the end of 1 10, the spot price of live pigs dropped at a high level, but there was limited room for falling back; After entering the Spring Festival effect on New Year's Day, the price of live pigs may once again enter the seasonal upward channel, but the supply and demand situation has doubled; Due to the weak overall consumption power, the peak season price does not have the basis for a sharp rise. It is expected that the pig price may still be at a seasonal high in the fourth quarter, but the overall increase may be lower than market expectations.
Live pig futures agreement settlement business started.
Faced with the uncertainty in the fourth quarter, some enterprises have begun to hedge their profits in pig futures under the background of considerable profits in the third quarter.
In the third quarter of this year, the price of live pig futures showed a high fluctuation trend, which is closely related to policy control measures. The rise in pork prices has attracted the participation of speculative and hedging customers. The data shows that the main pig's 230 1 contract positions increased from 24,000 lots at the end of the second quarter to 40,000 lots at the end of the third quarter, and the positions increased by 6.5438+0.6 million lots.
In terms of contract quotation, the current hog futures price is near high and far low, and the hog price of 1 1 is the strongest, reflecting the optimistic attitude of the market towards short-term consumption; Next year's 1 contract is supported by seasonal consumption during the Spring Festival, followed by cost performance; The contract price of live pigs will drop month by month in March, May and July next year. The contract representing the pig price after the Spring Festival reflects the seasonal expectation of the downward trend of the pig price after the holiday.
Zhang Xiaojun, a researcher of Green Dahua Pig, believes that from March next year, the supply of pigs will start to increase month by month, and the price of pigs may enter the downward cycle again. At present, the breeding profit has rebounded to a higher level, and the market's expectation that the pig price will turn from strong to weak next year is also relatively consistent. Breeding enterprises are once again facing the operational risks brought about by the decline in pig prices. Recently, aquaculture enterprises are very willing to lock in breeding profits in advance and hedge the risk of falling pig prices. Some enterprises have begun to hedge the sale of live pig futures in the futures market, and some enterprises are ready to enter the market to arrange the sale of live pig futures at an appropriate time.
Under the background that a new round of "pig cycle" has been started, after full investigation and extensive collection of opinions from delivery warehouses and industrial enterprises, Dashang launched the pig futures agreement delivery business on September 27 without affecting the consistency of delivery system and process. This business enriches the communication channels between delivery warehouses and customers, improves the flexibility and autonomy of all parties involved in delivery, provides more delivery options and delivery resources, effectively improves delivery efficiency and expands the coverage of the pig futures service industry.
Li Qing, the head of the delivery business of New Hope Liuhe, said that it can help the buyer's customers to connect with the slaughtering enterprises near the delivery sub-warehouse, so that it is convenient for the buyer's customers to choose whether to deliver the white pork. Considering that there are great differences in the indexes such as arrival weight, post-slaughter meat output, by-product recovery value and white strip loss. For each batch of live pigs delivered, the buyer's customer can further negotiate with the slaughtering enterprise to determine the specific unit price of the delivery of white pork.