The key question is whether your so-called risk refers to the loss formed after opening a position in futures trading. In fact, the risk is whether the target of your hedging transaction is completed. If it is completed, is there any risk?

Simply put, not all varieties are worth hedging at any time. As you said in the futures book, the futures products with 1 to 12 as the main contract do not represent all futures products. This is enough to show that hedging is not always necessary.

In other words, for some varieties, if you want to hedge, you must have a certain foundation. When you receive a forward order, the order contract stipulates the transaction amount, and the goods in the contract are forward, involving a commodity, such as sugar. You are worried that the long-term rise of sugar will shrink the profit of your commercial contract, or your contract will be lost due to the rise of commodities. At this time, you have to hedge. Make more sugar. At the same time, it is uncertain whether someone will short white sugar, such as the middlemen or producers of white sugar, and will draw corresponding judgments according to the fundamentals at that time. Because the same fundamentals will only lead to the direction of convergence. Therefore, if there are not enough speculators and arbitrageurs in the market, there is no way to realize the smooth implementation of hedging transactions.

The conclusion is that whether he makes money in the operation of the futures market or not does not prevent him from achieving the purpose of hedging. If he realizes it, there is no risk, because he is hedging himself and locking in the spot profit.