A rare snowstorm in Texas, USA, caused a large-scale power outage! Oil and gas, semiconductor and other industries are now a chain reaction.

Blizzard swept across the United States recently, killing at least 3 1 person, including Texas (hereinafter referred to as? Texas? ) The disaster is the most serious. The snowstorm not only paralyzed the state's power grid, but also caused the spot wholesale price of electricity to be abnormally high, causing more than 4 million households to lose power and affecting many industries such as oil refining, semiconductors and animal husbandry.

Crude oil industry analysts believe that the cold wave weather in the United States has led to a decline in crude oil production, which may support international crude oil prices in the short term.

Affected by the extremely cold weather in the United States and boosted by Saudi Arabia's commitment to reduce production, the international oil price once broke through the $65 mark on February 18. Later, there were rumors in the market that Iraq had increased production in the first half of February, and Saudi Arabia may stop additional production cuts next month, and international oil prices turned from rising to falling. As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for March delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 0.62 US dollars to close at 60.52 US dollars per barrel; London Brent crude oil futures for April delivery fell 0.4 1 USD to close at 63.93 USD per barrel.

According to the data released by us energy information administration on June 5438+08, the US commercial crude oil inventory last week was 46180,000 barrels, down 7.3 million barrels from the previous month, which was greater than the market expectation.

Extreme weather affects the energy security system.

Texas is located in the south of the United States, near Mexico, with an average annual temperature above zero degrees Celsius. However, due to the extreme temperature, the temperature in Texas is below zero degrees Celsius, and the coldest place reaches MINUS 26 degrees Celsius. Travel conditions in many areas are very dangerous, or have reached a state where it is almost impossible to travel.

Extreme cold leads to an increase in energy demand. It never rains but it pours. Facing the once-in-a-century extremely cold weather, Dezhou coal-fired wind power solar energy (6.880, 0.62,? 9.90%), natural gas and other different types of power generation are difficult to output. In addition, the state is the only independent power grid system in the United States. In this case, it is difficult for other places to support electricity through the power grid, resulting in the lack of electricity in millions of residents' homes.

According to ERCOT, which is responsible for more than 90% of the electricity supply in Texas, the wholesale electricity price once exceeded 1 1,000 USD /MWh, about 200 times of the usual electricity price.

Insufficient power supply caused some residents to freeze or take other ways to warm up, causing many deaths. According to the latest report of CCTV Finance, on the night of February 16 local time, 600,000 households and businesses in Texas have resumed power supply. Nevertheless, due to freezing, low temperature and other bad weather conditions, power outages can only be implemented in turn throughout Texas to reduce the demand for electricity and avoid more lasting? Catastrophic power outage? .

On the other hand, natural gas production in the United States has also suffered a historic interruption. According to IHS Markit, about 20% of the natural gas supply in the United States was interrupted by the situation in Texas, and the decline in natural gas supply further led to a corresponding reduction in power generation. Texas authorities have banned natural gas companies from exporting fuel outside the state.

Oil refining, semiconductor, agriculture and other industries may be affected.

It is worth noting that Texas is the most important oil-producing state in the United States, and the extremely cold weather forced the temporary closure of oil fields and refineries. Mortiva, the largest refinery in North America, announced that it would close its port arthur refinery in Texas due to severe cold weather. Energy companies such as Chevron and ExxonMobil have also taken steps to close their factories in Texas.

Citigroup analysts estimate that the daily output of shale oil in the United States will be reduced by at least 2 million barrels due to extremely cold weather. By the beginning of March, the cumulative production reduction will reach160,000 barrels.

John, a partner of new york Re-capital? Kilduff said that US refining output has dropped by at least one fifth. But unlike hurricane disasters, infrastructure is unlikely to be damaged by cold weather. As the cold wave passes, production will resume soon.

Li Yan, a crude oil analyst at Longzhong Information, told shanghai securities news that the current crude oil production in the United States is about 4 million barrels per day lower than that before February 10, and the demand for crude oil by refineries is also about 3.52 million barrels per day. On the whole, the contraction of output is more obvious, which has formed a favorable support for the recent international crude oil price. The cold wave weather in the United States may not end until around February 23, and the crude oil market is dominated by bullish sentiment in the short term.

Power outages have caused some semiconductor factories near Austin, Texas, USA to shut down, further putting pressure on the already tight supply. NXP Semiconductors, one of the largest manufacturers of automobile chips, recently said that it has closed two factories in Austin. Samsung Electronics said it also interrupted production at its Austin plant. Previously, many car companies said that production slowed down due to insufficient supply of chips.

In addition, animal husbandry and planting in Texas are also very developed. According to the data of USDA, as of June 5438+February, 2020, Texas Farm had 2.9 million livestock, ranking first in the United States. The report shows that many livestock died because of cold and lack of food. Relevant agricultural experts are judging whether this cold wave will exceed the impact of 1989 cold wave on Texas.

Daniel, an associate professor at Rice University? Cohen believes that it is necessary to better understand how fragile the energy system is through this extreme weather. Some experts believe that in the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the aging of equipment and increase reserves to better cope with it.