It's hard to see clearly at present. Rebar is expected to oscillate and wait for the pattern to be clear, and the demand release will be observed in the follow-up.
3. The demand intensity of rebar banks declined.
(1) From a year-on-year perspective, with the downturn of the economic cycle, the sales of real estate data in September were poor, and land in many regions was auctioned off. The focus of capital expenditure of housing enterprises shifted to the completion of construction, and the consumption intensity of domestic construction steel decreased significantly; From the ring comparison, the demand for construction steel exceeds half of the peak season. Due to the cold winter environment this year and the advance of the Spring Festival in 2022, the demand in the northern market has shrunk and there is almost no transaction. The demand in East China and South China can be maintained until the beginning of 65438+ 10 next year.
(2) On the whole, the national demand for construction steel terminals will face a seasonal weakening in early June from May 438 to February, and rebar prices are related to traders' willingness to stock up in winter.
(3) Since June 5438+00, the policy of double control of energy consumption has been relaxed, steel mills in Guangxi, Shandong, Jiangsu and Sichuan have resumed production, and the output of hot metal and steel has rebounded.
(4) However, the task of crude steel production reduction in the fourth quarter is still arduous. Judging from the policies and documents issued by various places, most provinces are regulated by the government, but Hebei and Shandong, the major crude steel producing provinces, require to reduce crude steel production by 2 1, 7 1, 000 tons and 3.44 million tons respectively. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed to resolutely reduce the output of crude steel. This year, the national actual crude steel output is required to be reduced by 25 million tons, corresponding to the monthly average output of 25 1.44 million tons in September and February, which is about 20% lower than the same period of last year, and the output still needs to be reduced by about 6.4% compared with August of 2002/kloc-0. Based on the crude steel output of 65.438+006 million tons in 2020, assuming that the crude steel output does not increase in the whole year, the crude steel output will decrease by 654.38+00% from September to June, and the crude steel output will decrease by 25 million tons, which is about 654.38+06.5%.
(5) After strict pressure reduction in the early stage, the high intensity of steel mills' production reduction may have passed, and the market's expectation of subsequent steel production reduction began to change, but it ultimately depends on the change of local energy consumption dual control rhythm.
(6) In addition, from 20021to 10 to March 2022, the domestic crude steel reduction task is heavy, and the rebar supply is likely to remain low. Although the demand intensity of construction steel has decreased, the supply contraction will still promote the rapid destocking of rebar this quarter. However, the growth rate of real estate investment may further decline. 1 1 At the beginning of the year, the market demand in Northeast China will reach freezing point. From a national perspective, the overall demand for construction steel will face a seasonal decline at the beginning of 65438+2. At present, the high price of rebar has a negative impact on the demand for winter storage, and the limited production in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei heating season has a relatively limited impact on rebar production capacity. At present, the profit price of rebar production remains at a high level, and the market is cautious about the future price of rebar. At present, 220 1 contract cash discount, the disk is expected to weaken.
(7) At present, the supply and demand are weak, the demand is delayed, and the rebar futures price is weak. Looking forward to the market outlook, the pattern of supply and demand is affected by many factors, and it is difficult to see clearly at present. Rebar is expected to run in shock, waiting for the pattern to be clear, and the follow-up will mainly observe the demand release.