main factors affecting the world gold price 1. supply factors: (1) there are about 137,4 tons of gold on the ground in the world at present, and the above-ground gold stock is still growing at a rate of about 2% every year. (2) Annual supply and demand The annual supply and demand of gold is about 4,2 tons, and the newly produced gold accounts for 62% of the annual supply. (3) New gold mining costs The average total cost of gold mining is slightly lower than $26 per ounce. Due to the development of mining technology, the cost of gold development has been falling continuously in the past 2 years. (4) Political, military and economic changes in gold-producing countries. Any political and military turmoil in these countries will undoubtedly directly affect the amount of gold produced in this country, and then affect the world's gold supply. (5) Gold selling by the central bank 2. Demand factors: The demand for gold is directly related to the use of gold. (1) Changes in the actual demand for gold (jewelry industry, industry, etc.). Generally speaking, the development speed of the world economy determines the total demand for gold. For example, in the field of microelectronics, gold is increasingly used as a protective layer; In the fields of medicine and architectural decoration, although the progress of science and technology makes gold substitutes appear constantly, the demand for gold is still on the rise because of its special metallic properties. In some areas, local factors have a significant impact on the demand for gold. For example, due to the financial crisis, India and Southeast Asian countries, which have always been in great demand for gold jewelry, have greatly reduced their gold imports since 1997. According to the data of the World Gold Council, the demand for gold in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea has dropped by 71%, 28%, 1% and 9% respectively. (2) the need to preserve value. Gold reserves have always been used by the central bank as an important means to prevent domestic inflation and regulate the market. For ordinary investors, investing in gold is mainly to achieve the purpose of maintaining value under inflation. In the economic downturn, due to the insurance of gold relative to monetary assets, the demand for gold has increased and the price of gold has risen. For example, in the three dollar crises after World War II, due to the serious trend of the balance of payments deficit in the United States, the dollar held by various countries increased greatly, the market's confidence in the value of the dollar was shaken, and investors snapped up gold in large quantities, which directly led to the bankruptcy of the Bretton Woods system. In 1987, due to the depreciation of the US dollar, the increase of the US deficit and the instability in the Middle East, the international gold price also rose sharply. (3) Speculative demand. According to the international and domestic situation, speculators take advantage of the fluctuation of gold price in the gold market and the trading system in the gold futures market to "short" or "replenish" gold in large quantities, artificially creating the illusion of gold demand. In the gold market, almost every big decline is related to hedge fund companies borrowing short-term gold to sell in the spot gold market and building a large number of short positions in COMEX gold futures exchange. When the price of gold fell to a 2-year low in July 1999, the data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that the speculative short position in COMEX was close to 9 million ounces (nearly 3 tons). When a large number of stop-loss selling was triggered, the price of gold fell, and the fund company took the opportunity to make up for the profit. When the price of gold rebounded slightly, the hedging forward selling from the manufacturer suppressed the further rise of the price of gold, and at the same time gave the fund company new opportunities to re-establish short-selling positions, forming a downward pattern of gold prices at that time. 3. Other factors: (l) the impact of the US dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate of US dollar is also one of the important factors that affect the fluctuation of gold price. Generally, if the dollar rises in the gold market, the price of gold will fall; When the dollar falls, the gold price rises. A strong dollar generally means that the domestic economic situation in the United States is good, domestic stocks and bonds in the United States will be sought after by investors, and the function of gold as a means of value storage will be weakened; However, the decline in the exchange rate of the US dollar is often related to inflation and the stock market downturn, and the value-preserving function of gold is once again reflected. This is because the depreciation of the dollar is often related to inflation, while the value of gold is high, which will often stimulate the increase in the demand for gold preservation and speculation when the depreciation of the dollar and inflation intensify. In August 1971 and February 1973, the US government announced the depreciation of the US dollar twice. In early 198, the price of gold rose to the highest level in history, exceeding $8 per ounce, under the influence of factors such as the sharp decline in the exchange rate of the US dollar and inflation. Looking back on the history of the past 2 years, if the dollar is strong against other western currencies, the price of gold will fall in the international market. If the dollar depreciates slightly, the price of gold will gradually rise. (2) The monetary policies of various countries are closely related to the international gold price. When a country adopts a loose monetary policy, the money supply of the country increases due to the decrease of interest rate, which increases the possibility of inflation and will lead to an increase in the price of gold. For example, in the 196s, the low interest rate policy in the United States led to the outflow of domestic funds, and a large amount of dollars flowed into Europe and Japan. As the net position of dollars held by countries increased, they became worried about the value of dollars, so they began to sell dollars in the international market and snap up gold, which eventually led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. However, after 1979, the influence of interest rate factors on the price of gold was weakening day by day. For example, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates eleven times this year, which did not have a great impact on the gold market. Only in the "9.11" incident did the gold market benefit. (3) The influence of inflation on the price of gold. In this regard, it is necessary to make long-term and short-term analysis, and it depends on the degree of inflation in the short term. In the long run, if the annual inflation rate changes within the normal range, it will have little impact on the fluctuation of gold prices; Only in a short period of time, the price rises sharply, causing people to panic, and the unit purchasing power of money drops, will the price of gold rise significantly. Although the world has entered the era of low inflation since the 199s, the use of gold as a symbol of monetary stability is shrinking. Moreover, as a long-term investment tool, the yield of gold is lower than that of securities such as bonds and stocks. However, in the long run, gold is still an important means to deal with inflation. (4) The influence of international trade, finance and foreign debt deficit on gold price. Debt, a worldwide problem, is not only a unique phenomenon in developing countries. In the debt chain, not only does the debtor country itself fail to pay its debts, which leads to economic stagnation, but the economic stagnation further worsens the vicious circle of debt. Even the creditor country will face the danger of financial collapse because of the breakdown of its relationship with the debtor country. At this time, countries will reserve a large amount of gold in order to maintain their own economy from harm, which will cause the price of gold in the market to rise. (5) international political turmoil, war, etc. Major international political and war events will affect the price of gold. The government pays for the war or to maintain the stability of the domestic economy, and a large number of investors turn to gold for investment, which will expand the demand for gold and stimulate the price of gold to rise. For example, World War II, the Vietnam War, the coup in Thailand in 1976 and the Iran-contra incident in 1986 all caused the price of gold to rise to varying degrees. For example, the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center in September this year caused the price of gold to soar to nearly $3 this year. (6) The influence of the stock market on the price of gold. Generally speaking, the stock market falls and the price of gold rises. This mainly reflects investors' expectations of the economic development prospects. If everyone is generally optimistic about the economic prospects, a large amount of funds will flow to the stock market, and the stock market investment will be enthusiastic and the price of gold will drop. In addition to the above factors affecting the price of gold, the intervention activities of international financial organizations and the policies and regulations of central financial institutions in China and regions will also have a significant impact on the changes of world gold prices. The trend of gold price in recent 3 years and the sharp drop in recent years can be mainly understood from the following aspects: first, the loss of the dominant position of gold in the monetary system. In the 197s, with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, gold was basically monetized, and its commodity attributes gradually increased. In April 2, Switzerland abolished the gold standard by referendum, and the degree of non-monetization of gold further deepened. The new round of decline in the price of gold is the further decline of the monetary attribute of gold and the further enhancement of the commodity attribute. Therefore, the decline of gold and functions of money is the background of the international gold price falling for 3 years. Secondly, the major western economic powers sell gold, resulting in a relatively abundant supply of gold. Because the long-term value of gold reserves in European countries is underestimated, such as the gold purchased in 197 was only about $35 per ounce, it is an inevitable choice to sell gold for foreign exchange and improve the value and quality of financial assets in various countries. Switzerland is ready to sell about 13 tons of gold, accounting for about half of its gold reserves. Britain is also preparing to sell about 415 tons of gold, equivalent to 58% of its gold reserves; The International Monetary Fund also plans to liquidate 1% of its gold reserves. Third, since the 199s, the economies of the United States and western countries have generally maintained a good development situation, with little inflationary pressure and weak demand for investment in gold preservation, which makes it difficult to stimulate the price of gold to rise. In addition, with the development of electronic technology, the role of gold in international settlement has declined, while the reserve cost is the highest. The birth of the euro has also changed the international reserve structure of the euro zone, and the European Central Bank has clearly announced that it will reduce the gold reserve to about 15%. All these have affected the role and demand of gold, and it is inevitable that the price of gold will fall. If you don't know, you can call me.