Author | Wang Xiaoyue Editor | Zhao Yan
stoolpigeon@service.netease.com
In the autumn afternoon in Huangpu Port, Guangzhou, heavy trucks slowly entered and exited, and containers were slowly moved to the cabin by hanging towers. The citizens on the shore sat fishing with long poles all afternoon.
Opposite the port, people who make a living around this pier don't have this leisure.
The customer service of the freight forwarding company is banging on the keyboard loudly in the cubicle, racing against time to book the shipping space for customers. Affected by the epidemic, many countries whose supply chains have not recovered have moved their orders to China. After a short depression, domestic terminals suddenly ushered in a large number of export orders, and sea containers became tense, so "grabbing containers" became the normal state of freight forwarders. In order to prevent shipping companies from dumping shipping space, freight forwarders should immediately rush to the dock to lift containers and occupy shipping space after receiving the bill of lading.
Under the contradiction between supply and demand, prices soared. The export container price index of China released by Shanghai Airlines Exchange soared from below 850 points in May to 165438+ 107.28 points in October, setting a new high in recent years.
According to Liu Qing's data, the price of a 40-foot container from Guangzhou to new york has risen to $5,000, more than three times that before the outbreak. The price increase of special counters is even crazier. Some freight forwarders were raised by shipping companies by $4,000 in just one week, and some special cabinets in northern ports were raised to 1000, while the price of special cabinets before the epidemic was only about 1000.
Containers are crazy, and it is difficult for regulators to stop the price increase. The insiders believe that the shortage of containers will last at least until the first half of next year, and export enterprises and freight forwarders will continue to bear the cost pressure for some time, while cruise companies and container manufacturers will still have dividends to eat.
"We have been in this business for 20 years, and (the price) is not so high."
Mr. Chen, the person in charge of the freight forwarding company, was sitting on the sofa, his mobile phone kept ringing, and a customer was urging him to book a space. The staff in the lobby shouted to him from time to time, "Nansha has no cabinet" and "How big is the special cabinet" ... Mr. Chen, whose hair is slightly gray, is at a loss.
Lao Chen comes from Hefei, Anhui. In the 1990s, he came to work in Guangdong. After he was laid off from a state-owned textile mill, he started a freight forwarding business, helping export enterprises book shipping space, running customs and providing one-stop service.
After this year's epidemic, Lao Chen predicted that his business would be affected, and the actual situation greatly exceeded his imagination. After a short-term shortage during the epidemic, the export volume of clothing, fabrics and other commodities surged in the third quarter, and the national shipping price soared, making it hard to find a box.
"If you say next week's price now, no .. the price won't be known until next week." Lao Chen said that due to frequent price increases, the current quotation cycle has become shorter.
Mr. Chen's main job now is to "grab the cabinet". He wandered from shipping company to shipping company, trying to establish a good relationship, hoping to grab the shipping space.
However, in the craziest time of grabbing cabinets, booking shipping space does not guarantee the final order.
"The shipping company is crazy now and keeps raising prices. For example, today's selling price is lower. If you make a reservation, he will cancel your order immediately, just to raise the price. " Lao Chen said.
The abbreviation of shipping bill is also, which is usually called bill of lading in the north. When the SO bill is issued, it means that the shipping company has allocated the shipping space, and the customer can carry out box lifting and packing according to the instructions of SO.
Lao Chen said that the price increase of ordinary cabinets is acceptable. At present, the price of high boxes from Guangzhou to the United States is around $5,000, which is more than three times before the epidemic.
The price of the special counter has gone crazy.
Mr. Chen ordered a special cabinet last week, which was priced at more than $65,438+0,000, but the shipping company raised the price to $5,000 near the departure this week. Special cabinets refer to special containers, which can have the functions of refrigeration, storage of ultra-high goods, storage of liquids, vehicles and so on. Boxes with this function are more scarce, and shipping companies are more confident to raise prices.
After receiving the price increase notice, Mr. Chen's customer immediately returned to the company for a meeting and discussion, and finally decided not to go.
"As soon as we receive such an order, we will immediately give an order and take out the cabinet. I will ignore his price increase. " After being forced by the shipping company to raise prices, Mr. Chen found a countermeasure. "No way, it's all urgent."
The shipping company is also afraid of breaking down. After the outbreak, the shipping company asked the freight forwarder to pay the deposit when booking the space. The deposit for a container is 300 to 400 dollars. If the forwarder breaks the contract temporarily, the shipping company will have to pay the deposit, which is a new financial pressure for Mr. Chen.
From the outside world, freight forwarders naturally earn more because of the soaring shipping prices. But Mr. Chen said that "not much money can be earned". As an agent, Mr. Chen draws a commission of $65,438+000 per container on the basis of the shipping company's quotation, and relies on the transaction volume to earn income.
He has a lot of goods to sell, but he can't get the cabinet, and now he can't make a single order.
"We are afraid of this. After a long time, the business will be gone. " Chen said helplessly.
The price increase is not good for freight forwarders, but the upstream container sales company and shipping company have made a fortune.
Xiao Hu, who is engaged in container rental and sales business, has recently updated his circle of friends frequently, and the copy of "the price of high boxes rises again" is sent almost once a week.
At present, the price of a second-hand 40-foot-high box is 1.5 million yuan, while the price of a similar high box at the beginning of the year was only 1.5 million yuan. Xiao Hu told Liu Qing Studio that the price will be raised at any time, and customers can only lock the price with a 30% deposit.
"If I tell you this price now, it may rise to 1.6 million tomorrow." Little nonsense.
Domestic first-hand containers mainly come from CIMC (000039. SZ), the global container leader, ranks first in the world in terms of production and sales of 20 19.
In the communication with investors, the representative of CIMC Securities Affairs revealed that the price of 20-foot container was less than $2,000 at the beginning of the year, and now it has risen to $2,200, and the price may continue to rise. In the first three quarters, the cumulative sales volume of dry containers decreased by 65,438+07.09% year-on-year. However, as the gross profit margin increased to 65,438+04%, the container business turned losses in the first half of the year.
CIMC's semi-annual report shows that the cumulative sales of ordinary dry containers decreased by nearly 40% year-on-year, and the operating income of container business decreased by 25.45%, but the net profit increased by 535.78% year-on-year, totaling 239 million yuan, compared with less than 40 million yuan in the same period last year.
Downstream of container manufacturers are shipping companies. After purchasing containers, shipping companies earn profits by renting containers and shipping spaces. According to the report of Drewry in 2020, the total throughput of COSCO Air-Sea Container Terminal (60 19 19. SH)20 19 ranks first in the world. The company * * * operates 278 international routes (including international feeder routes), 56 coastal routes in China and 88 feeder routes in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River.
In this wave of container price increases, COSCO in the air and sea also got a share. The third quarterly report shows that the company's revenue per container of international routes rose from 888 US dollars /TEU in the same period last year to 952 US dollars /TEU this year. In the first three quarters, COSCO Aerospace's operating income only increased by 5.46%, but its net profit increased by 82.4%.
Driven by the performance, the share prices of the above two companies have also risen steadily. Since the end of May, CIMC's share price has risen by more than 140%, and COSCO Air&Sea's daily limit has risen by more than 190%.
"Originally, the cabinet is enough. The cabinet was exported abroad and did not come back. " For the reason of the price increase, Lao Chen believes that the most important thing is the detention of empty containers.
In the latter part of the epidemic, with the recovery of global trade, the demand for Christmas goods surged in the second half of the year. Foreign supply chains couldn't keep up, and the demand shifted to China. According to the data of China General Administration of Customs, in August and September, China's export business changed its previous downward trend, and its total export volume increased by 0.8% and 1.8% year-on-year. Among them, the total export value of processed animal and vegetable oils and waxes increased by nearly 60% year-on-year, followed by the total export value of spinning, fabrics, finished products and related products increased by nearly 40% year-on-year.
A shipping company official told Liu Qing Studio that after the goods were exported, the transshipment and distribution in American ports were not timely, resulting in a large number of containers being blocked, the warehouse being full and empty containers unable to return to China. Therefore, the supply of domestic boxes has become more scarce recently.
In addition, the representative of securities affairs of CIMC Group said in the exchange that the buyer's container inventory has dropped significantly from the data of shipping companies or container leasing companies 20 18 and 20 19. "At the current rapid container lifting speed, there will not be enough containers."
According to Lao Chen, the shipping space to the United States, Australia and Canada is the most tense, followed by South America and Africa. He also revealed that Southeast Asia was not nervous at first, but it has also become tense recently.
"It may also be that the shipping company did it on purpose. We went to the dock to have a look, and there are quite a few imported cabinets. " For the high container price, Lao Chen and the above-mentioned shipping company personnel have put forward such speculation.
When the epidemic broke out this year, shipping companies reduced the number of ships and shipping space. In the second half of the year, the shipping company's transportation capacity did not increase, which may be because the transportation capacity could not keep up, or because the shipping company tasted the sweetness of hunger marketing and was unwilling to increase the shipping space by a large proportion.
Some shipping companies are even reducing their capacity. According to media reports, the alliance plans to cancel a quarter of the Asia-Nordic routes in the first week of May 438+February. At the same time, Hapag-Beurotte, a member of the alliance, increased its net income in the first nine months of 2020, and raised the freight rate to announce the imposition of surcharge.
On September 16, the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC), the US maritime regulatory agency, issued a warning to container shipping companies, saying that if there was evidence of collusion in trans-Pacific trade, FMC would bring a lawsuit to the court. The US Federal Maritime Commission said that it was investigating possible violations of the competition law.
In China, according to media reports, in September, the Ministry of Transport recently interviewed all container shipping companies operating Sino-US routes.
According to a source close to the interview, the Ministry of Transport will exercise strong supervision over Sino-US air routes, and demand that freight rates be standardized for the record. The capacity, route and schedule should be put on record, and the freight rate and all additional fees stipulated by the shipping company should be standardized and reasonable, which needs to be put on record and explained in detail.
However, judging from the freight rate index and industry feedback, the current shipping price is still rising.
Wang Xiaoyue is a senior author in Liu Qing Studio.