So far, there have been several oil crises and oil wars in history, and the outbreak of the crisis has caused people to worry about the future oil supply. Some experts and scholars represented by Rome Music Department predicted decades ago that the international oil resources would be exhausted in a few decades, and the oil price would rise above 100 USD/barrel. In fact, after decades, the international oil resources have not been exhausted, the proven reserves continue to increase, and the oil price is far from the level originally guessed. During 1982- 199 1 year, the world produced a total of 29.5 billion tons of oil, and the proven remaining reserves increased from 92.6 billion tons at the end of 198 1 year to 1 year. During the period of 1992-200 1 year, the world produced 34 billion tons of oil, and the proven remaining reserves increased from 200 1 9913.65 million tons at the end of the year to 200 1 at the end of the year. Now the global oil reserve-production ratio is between 40 and 43 years. In this sense, there will be no shortage of global oil supply for at least the next 20 years. However, from the distribution of international oil reserves, structural imbalance is a basic feature. The oil reserves arranged by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, a major oil producer in the Middle East, account for more than 70% of the total international reserves, which plays a very important role in the supply side of international oil shopping malls. The change of capacity utilization rate of OPEC countries and its proportion in international oil supply has a very far-reaching impact on international oil prices.

As far as non-OPEC countries are concerned, their remaining recoverable reserves are limited, accounting for only about 1/3 of the international oil reserves in the 1980s. By 2002, their share had dropped to about 1/5. At present, the global oil reserve-production ratio is about 40 years, and the major OPEC countries are all over 80 years, while the reserve-production ratio of major non-OPEC countries is only 10 years. Therefore, in the long run, it is impossible for non-OPEC countries to occupy the leading position of international oil shopping malls for a long time, and their share of shopping malls will gradually shift to OPEC countries, especially oil-producing countries in the Gulf. This is a fundamental factor that needs to be considered to speculate on the long-term trend of oil prices.

(2) Oil production cost

The cost of oil production does not directly affect the price decision-making of international oil shopping malls, but affects the production decision-making plan of producers, and then affects the supply of shopping malls, which directly causes the price to shake. Therefore, it can be said that the cost of oil production is a long-term factor affecting oil prices. The rising cost of oil production in a country or region will not cause oil price fluctuation immediately. As long as the change of oil production cost is enough to cause the change of supply, it may cause the price to shake.

As far as supply is concerned, first, the production level is constrained by the total oil reserves, which are affected by the new reserves, which are mainly increased by the investment in exploration and development. As long as the price increase level is enough to affect the development of marginal oil fields, funds will flow to the exploration and development field because of profit, thus increasing new reserves and putting a large number of new oil blocks into production, thus increasing the total oil supply; On the contrary, if the price level is not enough to affect the flow of capital contribution, resulting in a decline in production, it will lead to tight supply and new price increases. Obviously, the critical point that affects the increase or decrease of capital contribution lies in the production cost of marginal oil fields. As long as the price is enough to affect the development of marginal oil fields, the overall supply level will not change greatly. Once the price level falls below the development cost of marginal oil fields, the supply level will drop, which will naturally prevent the price from falling. This is the market mechanism in which prices and capital adjust each other.