Actually, I can understand her asking me such a question. After all, when you are trapped, you will inevitably have emotions in your heart. But judging from the K-line chart of FIL, it is not completely hopeless for my best friend to get rid of the trap and make money, but the road may be a little long.
However, judging from the overall monetary environment, the bear market may continue, and it is really rare for the Fed to raise interest rates substantially and frequently. As a result, the interest rate hike led to the return of US dollars to the United States, but the US stock market also experienced a relatively large decline, indicating that after the return of funds, the debt was paid off, but it did not flow into other assets, which would lead to the reduction of funds in the market and the contraction of liquidity. It is hard to imagine a bull market in the currency circle.
Moreover, the current cryptocurrency market is very different from that of previous years. 20 18-20 19 cryptocurrency market is financialized, and then institutions are capitalized in 2020. Defi peripheral projects with ETH ecology as the core have implanted a lot of leverage in the fields of borrowing and synthetic assets. The above factors contributed to the bull market, but the persistent bear market institutions have such a large turnover and leverage. In the event of a stampede, the lever of the institution was strangled. Just like a 20 15 A-share, after the leveraged bull market, the bear market can't be stepped on. The last round of cryptocurrency bull market had both successes and failures, and financialization was too speculative. This is also the reason why the bear market has fallen rapidly recently. It may take a long time to repair these wounds.
As far as FIL is concerned, under pressure, there are no eggs, which is the big environment. FIL wants to soar and return to the peak, which is a bit unrealistic. However, it is unrealistic to say that the filling will tend to zero, the mine will be closed and the filling will be completely finished. After all, the foundation of FIL is here.
The following are some issues that FIL is concerned about.
First, regarding the shutdown price of FIL, many friends are worried that FIL will shut down. Let's just say that the monthly rental price of a cabinet is 5000 yuan, including electricity and internet access. A cabinet can hold about 2.5PB of computing power. According to the current price and output of FIL of US$ 5.8, the monthly income is about 45,000, which is far from the shutdown price. Don't worry too much. According to the current output of FIL, in theory, it will not be shut down if it falls to one dollar, even if it reaches the shut-down price, because there are pledge quality constraints. FIL is different from BTC. Different models of bitcoin have different shutdown prices, and they are all games. FIL, regardless of the old and new hardware, the hardware model is the same shutdown price, which may be different from many friends' understanding. There are two ways in which we consider the cost. The first is the admission fee. The second is the maintenance cost, which is the shutdown price. The cost of a machine 10000 yuan, and the net output per day 10 yuan. It takes 1000 days to return the original price. You probably won't go in, but if you have spent 10 thousand yuan, even if you only produce one yuan a day, you will continue until the net output drops to zero, and you won't close the door. When the price of FIL is low, only large-scale businesses and businesses with good cost control have living space. FIL received strong support from miners before the close.
Secondly, FIL has strong support of 3 to 5 dollars. After the FIL falls below $5, people's motivation to continue to participate in mining will be greatly exhausted, because they can buy a lot of cash directly, so why dig? Merchants think so, too. Judging from the current data, the FIL has dropped to about five yuan, and the admission of storage service providers has not been affected. If it falls again, the growth of FIL computing power may gradually stop. At this time, investors who are optimistic about the future ecology of FIL will put the money for buying hardware directly into the spot. Then FIL will have a very strong support at 3 ~ 5 dollars. This support comes from the transformation of miners' hardware.
Third, how much market value can FIL's basic buying support? Let's calculate according to the total market value here. The total amount of FIL is 2 billion, and the hardware investment is the first. At present, FIL finally has the strength of 17.5EB, and the hardware-related investment is in the tens of billions. There are nearly 4,000 active miners' nodes per second, including more than 2,200 nodes above 1PB, over 10,000 ecological developers and hundreds of ecological projects. According to the data of block browser, the third FIL saved 1.86 million addresses, of which 330,000 addresses saved more than 0. 1 FIL, and other addresses saved too little, so there is no statistics. This is equivalent to a listed company with hundreds of thousands of shareholders. It can be seen from the above data that it is not difficult to support the total market value of about $654.38+0 billion with tens of billions of hardware investment and a wide range of large institutions and retail investors, not to mention the current circulation rate of FIL is less than 20%.
Fourth, finally, there is a core issue that everyone cares about. When will the virtual machine and retrieval market land? To be honest, this is really uncertain. From the historical experience, the big move of the FIL team will be postponed continuously, and the virtual machine and retrieval market have been postponed several times. If it can land before the end of the year, it will be good. Why is the landing of the virtual machine and retrieval market important? Because we can verify the success of FIL, we can increase the usage scenarios of FIL, improve the relationship between supply and demand, and bring a wave of confidence to everyone.
In short, it is difficult for FIL to return to the peak, and it is difficult for FIL to return to zero. All we can do is wait and see, waiting for the flowers to bloom!
Related questions and answers: Is the fil currency recognized by the state? Recognition. 1, fil is just a data storage technology, and the fil coins generated by it are legal in nature and will definitely be recognized by the state. 2. As the underlying technology of the Internet, the main function of IPFS is decentralized distributed storage, which is more efficient, safer, more private, more permanent and lower in cost than the traditional centralized storage HTTP protocol that has been used for more than 20 years. Because of these characteristics, it is only a matter of time before IPFS fills and replaces the HTTP protocol: 1. In essence, IPFS/Filecoin is legal. IPFS, which is a file transfer protocol. In essence, as a transmission technology, IPFS is legal. After all, there is nothing illegal about this technology, just to help us transfer files more safely and quickly. IPFS, what it wants to do is to replace HTTP and become the underlying network transmission protocol in the new era. So since HTTP can be widely accepted (legal), IPFS should be legal as an alternative or upgrade. 2. Functionally, IPFS/Filecoin is legal. In other words, IPFS is a transport protocol. Functionally, it can realize: fast file transfer, safe file storage, file tampering prevention, data value protection, etc., which means that IPFS itself is not only legal, but also it can prevent illegal things from happening. Like hackers stealing data. In IPFS, file storage is local storage; IPFS uses fragmentation technology, and files are fragmented and encrypted for storage. In this way, we can successfully protect our files from hackers. With such a function, can we say that IPFS is illegal? 3. As far as mining is concerned, IPFS/Filecoin is legal. For most investors, whether IPFS/Filecoin mining is legal or not is the key point. Facts have proved that mining itself is legal as long as it is compliant and the procedures are complete. China previously banned foreign exchange trading, but not mining. By the end of 20021,the ban had been lifted and the country was issuing its own sovereign currency DCEP. Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about this policy risk, just worry about whether the IPFS/ Ferrocoyne mining company you choose is legal. Secondly, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and Shenzhen also organized an IPFS technical seminar. As far as IPFS/Filecoin Mining Company is concerned, it is legal in itself.