Soda soda ash is closely related to glass, and there are commodities such as coal and urea. At present, in the downstream of soda ash, glass accounts for more than 50% of the total consumption, especially in the consumption of heavy alkali, glass accounts for more than 90%, which can be said to occupy an important position. Mode refers to the scope of cognition, whether it is more or less, depending on the mode of the disk. At present, the short-selling structure of thermal coal and glass has not changed, and the marginal risk of short-selling is small and the profit-loss ratio is large.

First, the thermal coal market

Since June 5438+ 10, the price of thermal coal pit has been divided, with the price index around Bohai Sea, spot price of Qinhuangdao and international port rising, CBCFI index rising and Baltic dry bulk index falling. The output of raw coal in September decreased by 12.3% compared with the same period of last year, and the sales volume was basically the same as that in August. The traffic volume of key coal mines increased slightly, while the traffic volume of key ports decreased. The inventory of ports increased, while that of power plants and key coal mines decreased. Generally speaking, coal tends to pile up in ports. Compared with the same period of last year, the growth rate of electricity consumption in September was lower than that of residents, and the growth rate of electricity consumption began to fall.

Second, the glass market.

Since June 65438+ 10, the glass price index has dropped, two production lines have started, the production capacity has increased by 50 million to 905 million weight boxes, the tortoise shell production has increased slightly, the inventory of the tortoise shell production line has increased, the prices of heavy oil and heavy soda ash have been running at a low level, and the sources of funds for real estate enterprises are tight. In September, house prices rose by eight months compared with the same period last year. With the rapid rise of glass prices, enterprises began to increase production lines, and the supply of tortoise shells has an upward trend. Real estate is likely to have an inflection point in the fourth quarter, the growth rate of completed area and price will slow down, and the demand for glass will be suppressed.

Coal prices continue to rise, and "coal super squid" has attacked the market. Today (afternoon of 23rd), the main contract of thermal coal futures reached a record high of 1237.8 yuan per ton. At this point, the main contract of thermal coal futures was suspended for the second consecutive day. This morning, the main contract of thermal coal futures rose sharply, and it was suspended around 14: 20. In addition, coke, coke and other varieties opened higher and went higher, rising in succession. Yesterday (22nd), black futures rose across the board, and thermal coal rose by 7.23%, a record high. Iron ore rose by 5.6 1%, coke by 5.48%, coke by 3.32%, rebar by 1.77% and hot rolled coil by 0.58%.