The spread of COVID-19 in North America is getting worse and worse, so that Tom Hanks announced the infection and the NBA suspended its game, which made Americans who used to think that wearing masks was a sissy realize the horror of COVID-19.
Now the impact of the epidemic on the North American economy is probably just beginning.
What is even more frightening is that the wings of the black swan are flying in the sky and the feathers are scattered all over the floor. The fall of feathers triggered a new round of crisis.
God bless COVID-19's oil.
Oil prices fell to $30 a barrel, cheaper than mineral water, and became a fighter in the black swan. God helped COVID-19 on the way to destroying the world economy.
Saudi Arabia and Russia have little contact, because these two countries are the largest oil exporters in the world, and the people are probably Tencent and Ali. It's just that Middle Easterners like to buy sports cars to build tall buildings, while Eastern Europeans like to build planes and tanks when they sell oil.
Before COVID-19 appeared, Saudi Arabia and Russia were secretly competing, but on the surface, they respected each other and made money from each other. However, with the arrival of COVID-19, the demand for oil decreased and the output of shale oil in the United States increased greatly, which made the market price of crude oil lower and lower.
Then, on March 6, these oil-producing tycoons discussed together to reduce oil production and protect prices, so that we could save effort and make money together. But this proposal was rejected by Russia. Psychologically speaking, Saudi Arabia and Russia are typical "prisoner's dilemma". In the words of "Three-body", this is the law of dark forest.
Saudi Arabia and Russia have officially broken up.
Although the quality of crude oil produced around the world is different, it will not be much different. Russian products can't taste caviar, and those produced in the Middle East are not gold-plated. The two companies have returned to the origin of market economy, and the production cost is lower than the price.
So Saudi Arabia took the lead. The CEO of Saudi Aramco announced that the crude oil supply of Saudi Aramco will reach 654.38+23 million barrels per day in April, and crude oil will be sold to the market on a large scale to drive out market competitors. The response of the market is that crude oil futures trading plummeted by 30% in one day, sending countless bulls to the rooftop and directly touching the price of $30/barrel.
After the price war in Saudi Arabia, the oil-producing countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, such as Iran and the United Arab Emirates, which are worried about the sales market, are competing to increase production, and the market is more anxious.
Historically, this is the consistent practice of Saudi Arabia, and it is also a means that only oligarchs can have in market competition. From the end of 1985 to1March 1986, due to the increase in British crude oil production, Saudi Arabia increased production significantly, which led to a sharp drop in oil prices and crude oil futures.
China consumers are puzzled by this series of operations, saying that the more good oil is used, the less it will be, and one day they will face the dilemma of running out of oil when buying gasoline vehicles in the future. Why is there more and more oil? Sure enough, electric cars are deceptive.
In fact, the theory of oil depletion, like the theory of carbon dioxide global warming, is only a speculation of scientists and cannot be proved. How did oil come from? How much is left on the earth? No one could understand that after the shale oil revolution in the United States, everyone was even more confused.
The plunge in crude oil prices also caused the US stock market to fall to a fuse, which made the 89-year-old American stock god Buffett say: See you later.
Oil, automobile and American election
In fact, this crisis is not just a financial storm, it is closely related to the American election and the world political structure.
Since the financial crisis in 2008, the American economy has been rising all the way. As the party chairman, Trump is also grasping the American economy and manufacturing industry. Promising to give Americans more jobs and better economic growth is Trump's foothold. Trump did it before the US stock market plummeted.
Therefore, the plunge in US stocks is not good news for Trump, who is about to run for public office. If US stocks continue to fall like this, American people's confidence in Trump will decline again.
Trump's current plan is that, anyway, the United States has enough oil, and everyone will buy more cars, drive more cars and build more cars, and the economy will get up.
The Democratic Party advocates love and peace, so that everyone can learn from Leonardo and ride more bicycles, so that we can reduce carbon emissions and pollution and save the planet. As long as everyone gives a little love, the world will become a beautiful world.
So Trump also shouted on Twitter: If you love a car, vote for Trump. At the same time, Trump is also working hard to promote the payroll tax reduction bill to win the support of more working-class people.
But the reality is not so simple. Although the United States is not short of oil resources in this oil competition, the cost of producing oil in the United States is likely to be more than twice that of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia only earns less when it comes to price wars, while the United States also loses money when it lies down, so it is difficult to fight in this competition for a long time. The price of oil is 30 dollars. If it continues for a while, American oil will be forced to stop production.
Even so, in order to maintain the stability of their votes. Trump still tweeted that the downward adjustment of oil prices is good news, and there is also a lot of helplessness behind it.
So if the epidemic and the oil price war lead to the pattern of the American election, then this black swan will fly for a while.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.