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Correlation evaluation of Tang Gaozong
The Ministry of Commerce put 200,000 tons of reserve sugar into the market on August 22nd, which is the eighth time this year. Compared with the previous average transaction price of 7730 yuan/ton, the transaction price of 7672 yuan/ton dropped by 58 yuan/ton. After the skyrocketing sugar price in the past six months, the rising trend slowed down and began to show signs of correction. According to industry insiders, with the increase of national dumping, the gap between supply and demand of sugar has been filled, and the trend of "sugar emperor" has gone. It is only a matter of time before bidding farewell to the market. However, some people think that with the arrival of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day consumption peak season, the inventory will bottom out, and the "sugar emperor" may make a comeback in the next month. Has the sugar price stabilized? Has the "Sugar Emperor" left? The reporter contacted Deputy Secretary General Feng of Shanghai Sugar and Food Association and Mr. Liu, a sugar researcher of Guangfa Futures, and made a detailed analysis for us.

According to Deputy Secretary-General Feng, the supply price of sugar in Shanghai began to rise gradually in mid-July, reaching 7890 yuan/ton by the end of July, and now it has risen to 7980 yuan/ton, with an increase of about 7% in half a year. Compared with other non-staple foods, the increase of sugar is not very large at present, and whether the price of sugar will stabilize in the short term depends on the situation. He believes that there are two main reasons for the high price of sugar: first, the price index continued to rise in the first half of the year, in which case it is normal for the price of sugar to rise slightly; Second, the artificial speculation in futures and stock markets is an important reason for the continuous high operation of sugar prices. Judging from the current situation, the sugar supply in China is still sufficient. Although the main sugar producing areas in southern China such as Guangxi are affected by drought, the relationship between supply and demand is generally balanced, and the contradiction between supply and demand basically does not exist. Based on this, he stressed that China has sufficient sugar reserves, and appealed to people not to be influenced by artificial hype, so as not to cause chaos in the sugar market. Teacher Liu, a sugar researcher, believes that it is normal for sugar prices to fall temporarily. He pointed out that the current high sugar price is mainly affected by the contradiction between supply and demand: on the one hand, China's sugar production has been reduced for three consecutive years, and now there are still a few months before the new sugar is listed. 10 will be squeezed one after another in late June, and the sugar supply is in a green and yellow stage. After the eighth launch this year, the national reserve sugar inventory is low, which is related to the rising sugar price, resulting in the shortage of starch sugar and other sugar substitutes. On the other hand, the demand of downstream sugar production enterprises in China is increasing year by year, which also makes the contradiction between supply and demand of sugar more and more prominent. Relevant data show that in 2007 and 2009, China's sugar output was 1 1.94 million tons and1.74 million tons respectively, but the price rose from less than 4,000 yuan/ton to more than 6,000 yuan/ton, which is enough to show the great market demand. In addition, the suspicion of artificial speculation is not ruled out, but it can never be divorced from the overall situation of supply and demand. According to reports, it is expected that the Ministry of Commerce will put the national reserve sugar into the market in early September, and the industrial inventory of sugar enterprises will be sold out in large quantities. Therefore, September will be the turning point of sugar prices. As far as the current situation is concerned, sugar prices will fall after September, but there will be no obvious decline. Influenced by climate, policy, international sugar price and other factors, the possibility of a new high in sugar price cannot be ruled out.