The exchange rate of RMB against USD is mainly determined by the domestic supply and demand of RMB against USD. The central bank's intervention in the exchange rate will also affect the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar. In the first half of the year, there was great pressure for RMB to appreciate against the US dollar, but with the promotion of the central bank, RMB fell against the US dollar. In the second half of the year, the central bank gave up its intervention in the RMB exchange rate. So the exchange rate between RMB and USD is determined by market supply and demand. In the first half of the year, due to human intervention, the RMB exchange rate fell, which stimulated exports and suppressed imports. In the second half of the year, the trade surplus reached a record high. The balance of payments can still maintain a surplus. In China's closed domestic trading market, the international surplus means that China is selling dollars more than buying dollars, and there is still a certain degree of imbalance between supply and demand between RMB and US dollars. Therefore, although the US dollar index rose sharply in the second half of the year, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar still rose.

Because international crude oil is denominated in dollars, the decline in the exchange rate of the dollar against the RMB means that the depreciation of the dollar has prompted the price of crude oil to rise. Of course, this is only one of the reasons.

The strength of the US dollar is the direct reason for the continuous depreciation of the RMB. On Wednesday, the US dollar index approached a nine-year high in Asian markets. The U.S. economy grew at the fastest speed in the third quarter of 1 1, prompting the market to advance the expected time of raising interest rates in the United States, which will further push up the trend of the US dollar and increase the depreciation pressure of non-US currencies.

Generally speaking, the depreciation of RMB will be beneficial to exports. However, the continued depreciation of RMB in the future may not necessarily boost exports. The reason is that the current export market has begun to shift, and overseas market orders have been "snatched away" by countries such as Southeast Asia, while Chinese export enterprises have no advantage in quality and core technology.