The main factors affecting the lead futures price are as follows: 1. According to microeconomics, when the supply of a commodity exceeds the demand, its price will fall, and vice versa. At the same time, price will affect supply and demand in turn, that is, when the price rises, supply will increase and demand will decrease, on the contrary, demand will increase and supply will decrease, so price and supply and demand are interactive. An important indicator reflecting the relationship between supply and demand is inventory. The inventory of lead is divided into reported inventory and non-reported inventory. Declared inventory, also known as "explicit inventory", refers to the inventory of the exchange. Unreported inventory, also known as "hidden inventory", refers to the inventory held by manufacturers, traders and consumers all over the world. Because these inventories are published irregularly, it is difficult to make statistics, so stock exchange inventories are generally used to measure inventory changes. 2. International and domestic economic development: Lead is an important non-ferrous metal, and the consumption of lead is highly related to economic development. When the economy of a country or region develops rapidly, the consumption of lead will also increase simultaneously. Similarly, economic recession will lead to a decline in lead consumption in some industries, which will lead to lead price fluctuations. When analyzing macro-economy, two indicators are very important, one is economic growth rate, or GDP growth rate, and the other is industrial production growth rate. 3. Downstream Industry Prosperity The main use of lead is lead-acid batteries, which are mainly used in automobiles, communication power supplies and electric bicycles. Therefore, the downstream demand industries of lead are relatively concentrated, and the prosperity of these industries directly affects the consumption of lead. By analyzing the changes of these downstream industries, we can have a comprehensive grasp of lead consumption. 4. Import and export policy Import and export policy, especially tariff policy, is an important means to control the import and export volume of a commodity and balance the domestic supply and demand by adjusting the import and export costs of commodities. Due to the rapid growth of domestic demand and the increasingly prominent resource bottleneck, the state does not encourage the export of smelting products with high energy consumption. Since 2006, China has successively reduced or cancelled export tax rebates for many products, even increased export tariffs, and cancelled preferential policies for processing with supplied materials. The increase in export costs has effectively curbed exports. In June 2004, 65438+ 10/,the export tax rebate of refined lead in China was reduced from 1 5% to13%; From September 15, 2006, the export tax rebate for refined lead was cancelled, and the export tax rebate for lead materials was reduced to 8%; From July 1 2007, the export tax rebate for lead materials and lead products was reduced to 5%; From July 20 15 10, the export tax rebate for lead materials and lead products will be cancelled. The change of China's trade policy is obviously reflected in the export of refined lead. In 2006, the trade policy stipulated to cancel the export tax rebate of refined lead, and before the implementation, a large amount of refined lead was exported centrally, which made the export volume reach a record high that year. Exports fell sharply in 2007. In 2009, supported by the price comparison at home and abroad, the import volume of refined lead increased substantially, exceeding the export volume, and China became a net importer of refined lead for the first time. China imposes an import tariff of 3% and an export tariff of 10% on refined lead. 5. Lead production cost Production cost is the basis of measuring commodity price level. Different mines and smelting enterprises calculate the production cost of lead differently. The most common economic analysis is to adopt "cash flow guarantee cost", which decreases with the increase of by-product value. In the lead smelting process, the by-product silver output is more, so the price change of silver also affects the lead production cost.