At present, the Engel coefficient of most families is reduced, and the effect of relying solely on hoarding to protect wealth is limited, which can be said to be a negative coping style. Therefore, a more active way to deal with it is to use the characteristics of the capital market rising with inflation to share the benefits in the process of rising capital prices. Generally speaking, under the expectation of inflation, commodities, gold, property market and stock market are the "four donkey kong" for investment. As the current property market is experiencing the most severe policy regulation in history, we might as well turn to consumption in advance with a strategic vision of resisting inflation.
People who are worried about inflation will unconsciously shrink their wealth if they don't manage their money actively. So, come to the 8th Shanghai Financial Expo held in1October19-21Shanghai Exhibition Center! During the three-day exhibition, more than 100 exhibitors from banks, funds, insurance, securities, foreign exchange, collection and other industries will gather together to give you advice and help you defend your wallet and be a successful inflation winner.
Inflation is coming.
Abstract: As in the late 1980s, the price increase is no longer confined to individual agricultural products such as mung beans and garlic, but permeates all aspects of life. There is no doubt that inflation has come before us; Inflation is likely to continue and even peak next year.
Eggs have gone up in price! Vegetable prices are rising! Apple's price has gone up! Clothing prices are rising! ……
You Play with Beans, Jiang Your Army and You Are Cruel with Garlic have become the norm, followed by Tang Gaozong and Needle in Cotton. Everyone is complaining that the price of "Ping What" is endless.
Rising prices, just like in the late 1980s, are no longer confined to individual agricultural products such as mung beans and garlic, but permeate all aspects of life.
This is not inflation. What is this? This is inflation!
This time, inflation is the third time "the wolf is coming", and it is really coming!
Prices are rising everywhere.
On June165438+1October1/October, the National Development and Reform Commission released the CPI data of June 65438+1October, and the figure of 4.4% was both surprising and unexpected. Surprisingly, in the first nine months of this year, the CPI figure was still 3%, and now it has crossed the line of 4%, and it seems to be advancing to the warning line of 5%. Unsurprisingly, everyone feels that prices are rising everywhere. Why can't CPI go up?
The monitoring of urban food retail price in June 5438+ 10 shows that nearly 80% of the commodities monitored in 36 large and medium-sized cities in China have increased in price. The monitored foods include vegetables, grain and oil, fresh meat and fruits, totaling 3 1 product. Statistics show that compared with September, the prices of 24 kinds of products have increased to varying degrees, accounting for about 80% of the total statistics. In June 5438+ 10, the average retail price of major vegetables in large and medium-sized cities 15 was 2.41yuan per 500g, which was higher than that in September.
Driven by the skyrocketing cotton price, the "clothing" of downstream products is inevitably affected. In two and a half months, the spot price of domestic standard cotton rose from 18000 yuan/ton to 28000 yuan/ton, a new high since 1 1 year. As an end product, the prices of cotton goods and clothing increased by 10% ~ 30%, among which the price of down jacket increased most significantly. Compared with last year, the average market price has increased by 20% to 30%.
5438+ 10, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) raised the price of refined oil, and diesel shortage occurred again in some cities. The rise in the price of refined oil not only increases people's travel costs: it is more expensive to refuel, and the fuel surcharge has increased. More importantly, it will continue to be transmitted to industries such as industry and tourism, causing another round of price increases for industrial products, agricultural products and service products.
Price increase is becoming the most common keyword in recent life; The price increase makes the purchasing power of our money bag lower and lower; Rising prices make us feel the power and pressure of inflation more and more.
Why is CPI still warm?
People have always regarded CPI index as an indicator to measure the inflation rate, but there are endless criticisms about CPI. Here, the price increase is unstoppable; On the other hand, CPI figures are often still warm and slowly rising? There is often a big gap between the increase of CPI and the price increase that people feel personally.
Let's take a look at the source and composition of CPI data. At present, China's CPI statistics mainly include food, tobacco, alcohol and supplies, clothing, household equipment and supplies and maintenance, medical care, transportation and communication, entertainment and education, housing and other eight categories of goods. For eight categories of goods, different weights are adopted, such as the highest weight is food, with a weight of 34%; The lowest weight is household equipment and services, with a weight of 6% (the Bureau of Statistics will slightly adjust the weight according to the consumption expenditure of residents every year). On this basis, the statistical department selected the consumption habits of nearly 654.38+03,000 urban and rural residents by sampling, identified 262 basic categories in 8 categories, and selected about 600 specific goods and services for regular and irregular surveys.
Therefore, the first reason why there is a gap between the actual feeling and CPI is that the house price does not belong to the calculation range of CPI. In the process of compiling CPI, the cost of living refers to the actual rent of renting a house, the interest rate of house loan for self-owned houses, property fees, building decoration materials, water, electricity and fuel, etc. House prices are regarded as investments and are not included in CPI statistics. So, first of all, the CPI statistics include the rent, not the house price. Secondly, the proportion of people living in the CPI statistics is also very small, about 13%. Therefore, the rapid rise in house prices is not reflected in the CPI data.
The second reason is that the CPI index does not effectively distinguish residents with different incomes. China adopts three indicators: overall CPI, urban CPI and rural CPI, which cannot reflect the differences in consumption habits and weights of residents with different incomes. In other countries and economies, various forms of consumer price indices are often reported to different target groups. For example, in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, consumer price indices A, B and C are reported according to low, medium and high incomes respectively. Relatively speaking, the price index based on the target population and consumption habits will be more in line with people's actual feelings.
Recently, Shen Zaicai, head of research in China and chief economist in Greater China of Citigroup Global Finance Asia Limited, said at the expert round table "How far is inflation from us" that the CPI data published by the National Bureau of Statistics was underestimated by 2 percentage points due to the errors caused by statistical methods. Considering the real CPI, Shen believes that China's inflation tolerance is 4%~6%, and if it exceeds 6%, it will be at a relatively high level. "If the digital CPI of the Bureau of Statistics reaches 4%, it is already very high." Shen said to.
Who brought inflation?
A large amount of money supply, Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist at Industrial Bank, gave the most basic reason for inflation. "In short, the massive issuance of money is a necessary condition for inflation, and the recovery of emerging economies has brought about the expectation of rising commodity prices. As emerging economies are the main demanders of commodities, they have formed sufficient conditions for inflation. The combination of the two eventually led to this round of inflation. "
After the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, major central banks around the world adopted loose monetary policies to stimulate economic recovery. According to the estimation of Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, in the first round of quantitative easing monetary policy, the prices of commodities including crude oil, copper and precious metals rose by about 15%. 165438+ 10, the United States launched the second round of "quantitative easing" program of 600 billion dollars again. Due to the substantial increase in the supply of dollars, it will lead to the depreciation of dollars. With the transmission of commodity prices, inflation has spread to many aspects of life.
On the other hand, due to the flood of money, global speculative capital flows on a large scale and is continuously imported into emerging economies, which leads to the rise of global asset prices and asset bubbles.
In China, an independent economy, in addition to the import of inflation and the inflow of global capital, M2, a rapidly growing broad money, has also promoted the development of inflation. Statistics show that since 2002, the average annual growth rate of broad money M2 in China has remained at 23%. By the end of September this year, the total supply of M2 had reached 69.64 trillion yuan. In the field of economics, the ratio of money supply to GDP is generally used to measure whether money is over-issued. At present, the ratio of money supply to GDP in western developed economies is below 1, while it is relatively high in emerging market countries. The money supply is generally 1~ 1.5 times of GDP, rarely more than 2 times. But by the end of September of 20 10, the total GDP of China was 26.866 trillion yuan, and the broad money supply M2 was 2.6 times of GDP. If measured by this indicator, China's currency is absolutely oversold.
Jin Yanshi, chief analyst of Guo Jin Securities, has a vivid metaphor: "All consumer goods and investment products around us can be packed in a wooden bucket and pool." The barrel is filled with food, clothing, housing and transportation. In fact, this is the main target of CPI data coverage, and the pool is filled with stock market, property market, government investment, luxury goods and so on. We can understand the fund pool as an asset market. "There are only two options for the central bank to increase liquidity, that is, to put money, barrels or pools." If it flows into the "wooden barrel", it will inevitably lead to rising prices such as food, clothing, housing and transportation; If injected into the "pool", it will make the stock price and property price rise and form a bubble. In fact, this year, due to the introduction of strict real estate control policies, the funds pouring into the property market have been squeezed out, and the capital markets such as the stock market have not risen on a large scale. Therefore, a large amount of funds have flowed into "wooden barrels", such as the phenomenon of "bean you play" and "garlic you are malicious" that have appeared since this year, and they have been pushed to all aspects of food, clothing, housing and transportation through the price transmission mechanism, which has brought about price increases and pushed up inflationary pressures.
On the other hand, some economists also believe that structural adjustment itself will lead to inflation. Shen pointed out that, for example, in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, the growth rate of residents' income in the future will at least exceed or not be lower than the nominal GDP, which means that the increase in consumer demand will bring inflationary pressure.
Therefore, inflation around us is not only a global factor, but also closely related to China's money supply, economic development model and macro-control. There is no doubt that inflation has come before us; Inflation is likely to continue and even peak next year.
Actively respond to inflation
The most realistic problem before us is how to launch a successful defense of wealth in the context of inflation. Inflation has always been the biggest enemy of wealth. The reason is very simple. Inflation reduces the purchasing power of our money, and our money is becoming less and less valuable. When inflation intensifies, this effect is more obvious. For example, the recent price increase is staged like a series, which not only has an impact on low-income residents, but also middle-income families feel great pressure.
Traditionally, the simplest methods are "hoarding" and "saving". "Dolphin" is a popular word recently. Go to the supermarket to snap up the long-preserved cooking oil, rice, flour and toilet paper, and hoard them to avoid the risk of price increase. Buy products that can't be saved, such as vegetables and restaurants. Looking for low prices through group buying, so as to achieve the purpose of saving money.
There is nothing wrong with "dolphin" and "governor", but due to the improvement of living standards, the proportion of daily necessities in total expenditure has become smaller and smaller. Although these methods have the purpose of defending wealth in the context of inflation, their effects are limited, which can be said to be a negative coping style.
A more positive response is to use the property that the capital market rises with inflation to convert cash into physical assets as much as possible and share the benefits in the process of rising capital prices, so that our wealth will not shrink, but may also overcome the pace of inflation and successfully become the winner of inflation.
A typical example is the rising price of agricultural products, which makes our dining table more and more expensive. As consumers, we have to bear the increased expenses brought by the rising prices of edible oil, sugar, vegetables and meat. But as investors, we can get much higher returns from commodity markets such as soybeans, sugar and corn. Fortunately, with the improvement of investment channels, ordinary individual investors can participate in the commodity market through QDII and commodity index funds without "hoarding" tons of commodities. One in and one out, which is more beneficial?
Gold is also an option to consider. This round of inflation is caused by excessive currency issuance. The research report from the World Gold Council shows that there is a certain correlation between the price of gold and the change of currency issuance. When the money supply in the United States increases 1%, the price of gold will rise by 0.9%. When the second round of quantitative easing policy in the United States was launched, the international gold price hit the integer mark of 1400 USD/ounce. Of course, there are many factors that affect the price of gold, but as a special commodity, gold's function of dealing with inflation deserves investors' attention.
Judging from the performance of the stock market, there are many investment opportunities around the main line of inflation. On the one hand, in the capital-driven inflation, the capital market is expected to improve, and the moderate inflation level will help the stock market maintain a steady upward trend; On the other hand, some listed companies that benefit from stock market inflation are expected to achieve good results, such as "coal dancing", and the recently strengthened agricultural and pharmaceutical sectors are typical examples.
Although theoretically, the real estate market belongs to the benefit plate of inflation, investing in real estate can play an anti-inflation role. However, from the current macro-policy environment, investing in the real estate market faces greater policy risks. Since the beginning of this year, policies to strictly control the real estate market have followed, including purchase restriction orders, higher loan interest rates and even the inability to obtain bank loans, and investors have to face higher tax costs. Therefore, in the short term, real estate investment is difficult to resist inflation.
How do economic experts view inflation?
Abstract: How is the current inflation formed? How will inflation develop in the future? This is the concern of everyone who is deeply worried about inflation. In this regard, experts in economics have made incisive analysis from their own perspectives.
After the economic recovery and the excessive currency, inflation was triggered.
Lu Zhengwei (Chief Economist, Industrial Bank)
When it comes to the causes of inflation, the international and domestic reasons are basically the same, both because of the large money supply. Internationally, major western countries, especially the United States and Japan, are still on the road of "quantitative easing", which directly provides conditions for the rise of commodity prices. So is China. According to statistics, in 2009, the national RMB loans increased by 9.59 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.69 trillion yuan year-on-year, about twice that of 2008, and the credit scale was unprecedented.
Under the background of such global economic stimulus, some countries, mainly emerging economies, which have not been positively impacted by the financial crisis, have achieved the first recovery, which has provided sufficient conditions for the rise of international commodity prices.
So simply speaking, the massive issuance of money is a necessary condition for inflation, and the recovery of emerging economies has brought about the expectation of rising commodity prices. As emerging economies are the main demanders of commodities, they have formed sufficient conditions for inflation. The combination of the two eventually led to this round of inflation.
For the expectation of future inflation, emerging economies took the lead in recovery, and then entered a period of policy tightening. However, the challenge is that the monetary policies of countries led by the United States are still quite loose. Therefore, even if the policy is tightened in the future, the pressure of domestic asset bubble and international imported inflation still exists, and inflation cannot be weakened quickly.
In fact, the current inflation is in our expectation. The inflation level in 20 10 is generally moderate, and the target of around 3% can be achieved. The real challenge is that inflation is still on the rise at 20 1 1. This round of inflation may last until the first half of 20 12.
For the current international inflation environment, from a static point of view, emerging economies are facing inflationary pressure, and developed economies are facing deflationary pressure, but looking forward to the future, the whole world is facing inflationary pressure. The interest rate of inflation-protected bonds recently issued by the United States (the interest payment level is adjusted according to the CPI of the previous year, which has anti-inflation ability) is negative, which means that such bonds have been snapped up in the market, which means that the market's future inflation expectations are very strong. It is not difficult to see that even countries like the United States that still have deflation risks have such high inflation expectations, and global inflation in the future should be predictable.
In the case of large-scale quantitative easing and the depreciation of the dollar in a global monetary power like the United States, the biggest risk for emerging economies in the future is the risk of asset bubbles. However, the degree of asset bubbles is often uncertain, and policies cannot take forward-looking actions, and even mistakes may occur. Fortunately, there is inflation now, and the policy of raising interest rates will be introduced immediately, which will reduce the possibility of future monetary policy mistakes.
The "water injection" of the three major currencies makes the currency worthless.
Sun (Associate Dean, School of Economics, Fudan University, Professor of Finance)
To look at this round of inflation, we should first review the financial innovations made by the United States before the financial crisis. At that time, financial innovation in the United States helped to inflate the asset bubble, and people's money grew rapidly, even exceeding their wealth. When the crisis suddenly came, the tickets with considerable purchasing power turned into non-performing assets.
This financial crisis can actually solve the problem of currency flooding, but all countries have not adopted a "hard landing" to deal with the crisis, but adopted a capital injection method to prevent financial institutions and large enterprises from closing down. The financial crisis could have brought back the money created innocently, but the fact revived the debt relationship that should have been lost, and the large amount of money created before 2008 has not been reduced and digested.
The fuse of this round of inflation is that the continuous loose monetary policy in the United States has made people no longer trust banknotes. He said that in the previous gold standard system, the value of paper money was determined by gold. At present, the value of global currencies is determined by three major currencies, namely, the US dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen. The water injection of the three major currencies makes the currencies worthless.
When people feel that financial assets have been flooded and unreliable, they will turn their original investment in financial assets to agricultural products, iron ore, bulk commodities and so on. For example, the well-known financial tycoons Soros and Buffett began to invest in hard wealth to seek benefits, which led to the price increase of upstream resources, which in turn led to the price increase of downstream investment environment and consumption environment. Among them, the price increase in the investment environment refers to the increase in the cost of enterprises, which makes them have to pass on the cost to the final products produced, forming a cost-driven price increase. Ordinary people will intuitively feel the price increase because of the price increase of agricultural products, and some of these ordinary people have the ability to transfer costs. For example, he is the operator of a business, so he finds that after the cost of living increases, even if he is not a producer, he will raise the price of the goods he sells to hedge the impact of the price increase. In this way, a comprehensive price increase has been formed.
However, in Europe and America, where money is rampant, there is no inflation. On the contrary, countries where commodities are located have to raise interest rates in advance. Due to the increase of capital return, Australia, an iron ore exporter, has to raise interest rates, while the currencies of manufacturing and emerging market countries are appreciating. The influx of overseas funds will cause asset bubbles, so these countries have to take the lead in raising interest rates, which will bring opacity to the future recovery of the world economy. It's not just the financial crisis in Europe and America, but now all the countries that didn't suffer in the previous crisis are involved.
As long as the United States does not give up the loose and quantitative monetary policy, there will be no possibility of peace in global inflation, and inflation will only get worse in the future. Only when Europe, America and Japan abandon the low interest rate policy will the trend of a large amount of hot money flowing into emerging market countries slow down and the world economy will recover. When the production cost is stable, the profits of enterprises may rise, the employment situation will also improve and people's lives will become better.
Inflationary pressure may be even greater next year.
Li Wei (China Economist, Standard Chartered Bank)
From the data point of view, the rise of food prices is the main factor, and this increase shows no signs of slowing down, and inflationary pressure may be even greater next year.
Even if inflation slows down at the end of this year, it will only be short-lived, and the domestic inflation situation will further intensify. It can be said that it is only in the primary stage of inflation, so it is necessary to adjust interest rates. The emergence of domestic inflation cannot be entirely attributed to the monetary easing policies of European and American countries. Although there are some speculative factors in the rise of food prices, they are generally affected by domestic economic recovery, rising demand and abundant liquidity.
The rise in the prices of various commodities affects each other. Take the rise in house prices as an example, people will feel that their income is depreciating relatively. In order to increase their income, farmers may have to raise the prices of agricultural products, and merchants will raise the prices of goods, which will immediately lead to mutual price increases. Controlling inflation requires comprehensive management means, and we can't hope to control the price of a single commodity.
Because the asset price bubble will have a penetrating effect, we must take active measures to curb the bubble. The smooth operation of the real economy is inseparable from the stability of various commodity prices. At present, the government's means of raising interest rates can play a certain role in curbing asset bubbles, which is very necessary in the long run.
(This article was compiled by reporters according to expert opinions. )
Weapons against inflation: four weapons.
Abstract: Generally speaking, under the expectation of inflation, commodities, gold, property market and stock market are the "four donkey kong" of investment. As the real estate market is experiencing the most severe policy regulation in history, we also suggest using strategic consumption to overcome inflation.
1. Stock market-moderate inflation brings investment opportunities.
"Money is released, even if it is not water, it is also oil. Finally, it must bulge somewhere. If investment can't outperform CPI, it means that purchasing power has declined, so we need to invest. " A professor in Peking University said so.
The end result of currency flooding is obvious inflation, from "garlic is cruel", "beans are fun" and "sugar is noble" to "nothing" ... Nowadays, the price increase has become an indisputable reality. With the price increase of various commodities, people's inflation anxiety is becoming more and more serious: the more money, the less valuable it is. What can we do? What can I invest to fight inflation?
The stock market is a sharp weapon against inflation.
Generally speaking, under the expectation of inflation, commodities, gold, property market and stock market are the "four donkey kong" for investment. However, as the target commodity and futures market are not places where ordinary people set foot; Gold hit a record high, reaching more than $ 1.420, which means "too high to be cold". The property market is experiencing the most severe policy regulation in history, and this time is obviously not the time to buy. Therefore, comparatively speaking, the stock market is the most popular and convenient investment weapon against inflation.
In fact, whether in the United States or Japan, stocks are the most anti-inflation tool. Although there are differences in the relationship between real stock returns and inflation in western developed markets, most stock markets have similar experiences: when the inflation level is high, the real stock returns are negatively correlated with the inflation level; When the inflation level is moderate, the real rate of return in the stock market is positively correlated with the inflation level. At different inflation stages, the performance of the stock market is different, and the performance of related sectors is also different. When the economy has just begun to recover and inflation expectations are rising, non-ferrous metals, coal and other resource stocks are worthy of attention. When the economy is booming, inflation is in a moderate period, and all industries have performed well, especially finance and real estate. In the period of hyperinflation, investment opportunities will decrease. At this time, it is necessary to choose some industries that have little to do with CPI, such as technological innovation and pharmaceutical industry.
Because the history of China stock market is short, there are not many rules to summarize. However, judging from the recent inflation and stock market, the Shanghai Composite Index performed well from the second half of 2006 to the significant increase of CPI in 2007, and the stock index climbed from less than 2,000 points to 6,000 points. Then, the global financial turmoil, inflation into deflation. After the government introduced the 4 trillion stimulus policy, the crisis quickly passed. At the beginning of 2009, inflation began to rise again, and there was a decent bull market in the stock market.
Therefore, investors should fully realize the investment opportunities brought by inflation, avoid the pressure of inflation and realize the preservation and appreciation of capital.
Who is the most resistant to inflation?
Anti-inflation will be the fourth quarter, and it will be the main tone of stock market investment for a long time to come. According to common sense, in the early and middle stages of inflation, the stock market will show a trend increase. However, investors need to be wary that "stocks are the best anti-inflation varieties" does not mean that all stocks can fight inflation, only a few stocks can fight inflation, and most manufacturing stocks with huge capital expenditures in the middle cannot fight inflation, but will be seriously hurt by inflation. So, which industries and sectors belong to this "niche"?
The first is the resource plate associated with commodities and the agricultural products plate dominated by grain. Recently, due to the intensification of inflation, international commodity prices have risen, and agricultural products have recently taken over the banner of price increases, so the stocks related to agricultural products have also risen accordingly. However, analysts remind investors that due to the excessive increase in resource stocks such as non-ferrous metals and coal in the early stage, although they are optimistic in the medium term, they may continue to adjust in the short term. Investors should wait patiently for the right time to intervene and make adjustments at any time according to changes in the central bank and US monetary policy to avoid losses.
Followed by the big consumer sector. The concept plate of big consumption includes automobiles, household appliances, medicines, retail department stores, clothing, food and beverage, etc. Judging from the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", the big consumption sector will become a "long-term focus". Among them, the pharmaceutical industry should be the most noteworthy. Due to the reform of medical and health system, the acceleration of aging and the improvement of life expectancy, the pharmaceutical industry has entered the era of "Great Leap Forward". From June to August this year, the pharmaceutical industry achieved a revenue of 697.6 billion yuan and a total profit of 765.438+0.8 billion yuan, up by 2.725438+0% and 35.58% respectively. Profitability has reached the highest level in recent 10 years. Pay attention to companies with product characteristics in the pharmaceutical sector. It can be said that characteristics are differentiation, differentiation is scarcity, scarcity is monopoly, and products with characteristics have unique competitiveness. Traditional ethnic products such as Yunnan Baiyao, Pien Tze Huang, Lamiophlomis rotata, Dong 'e Ejiao and Zheng Qi Tibetan Medicine; Strong specialties such as Gynecological Qianjin Tablet (Qianjin Pharmaceutical), Compound Danshen Dripping Pill (Tasly) and Quick-acting Jiuxin Pill (Zhongxin Pharmaceutical); Independent research and development or exclusive, pioneering and breakthrough special chemical and biological preparations (such as repagliptin of Hengrui Pharmaceutical and therapeutic hepatitis B vaccine being developed by three companies); For example, over-the-counter drugs with exclusive production and obvious brand advantages (such as Sanjiu Weitai Granules of Sanjiu Medicine).
Followed by the public utility sector. Public utility listed companies are in a natural monopoly position and their performance can remain relatively stable. Generally speaking, public utilities include electric power, transportation facilities, water supply and gas supply industries. During the period of 20 10 economic growth, the performance income of these industries increased steadily and will grow well in the future. In addition, in inflation, the wave of price increase from the upstream also affects the public utility industry, such as the implementation of gradient charging for electricity, and price adjustment will ensure that the profits of this industry will not be squeezed by the rise of raw materials.
Finally, it should be emphasized that "the right stock can resist inflation at the right price", rather than "all stocks can resist inflation regardless of the price". Inflation expectation is no reason for hasty decision. The most important thing is to consider the texture and intervention price of the stock. After more than four months of rising, many stocks are already very expensive. And before there is no tradable securities with appropriate price and sufficient margin of safety, you must tighten your wallet.
2. Commodities-Participate in commodity funds in various ways.
Besides stocks, commodities are another major investment tool to fight inflation.
Since the third quarter of 20 10, with the rise of global inflation expectations, the prices of major international commodities have skyrocketed. Statistics show that the CRB index, which represents the trend of commodities, rose by 4.8 1% and 45,438+0% in June. Commodities ushered in a general increase, among which soft commodities such as cotton, sugar and rubber were among the top gainers, while cotton and raw sugar futures in new york rose by 22.92%. Followed by agricultural products, Chicago corn, soybeans and wheat rose by 17.67%, 10.9 1% and 6.4 1% respectively, and soybean oil futures rose by 9.34%. What we can see is that asset prices related to inflation are rising.