The recent plunge in the bond market has attracted much attention from the market, and various reasons have been fully interpreted. Among many factors leading to the bond market crash, one reason repeatedly mentioned is that since June 5438+0 1, the People's Bank of China has withdrawn funds for several days, which has led to an increase in the interest rate of market funds and a tightening of the liquidity margin, and the "small composition" calling on the central bank to increase liquidity to "rescue the market" has spread rapidly on the Internet. Yesterday, the central bank increased the scale of reverse repurchase operations, which really played a key role in calming market sentiment at a critical moment. On the same day, treasury bond futures rebounded across the board and closed up sharply.

However, whether it is the marginal change of liquidity or the sudden change of market expectation caused by policy adjustment, it is at best a catalyst for bond market adjustment. From this point of view, the speculation that monetary policy will be marginally tightened is deduced from the upward trend of capital interest rate, which leads to a sharp drop in the bond market, which seems to be a bit worrying.

As an important starting point of macro-control, monetary policy should serve the development of macro-economy. At present, the main task of China's macroeconomic development is still to stabilize the economic market, the demand for steady growth has not changed, and it is not yet time to relax monetary policy. The newly released Monetary Policy Implementation Report of China in the Third Quarter of 2022 still proposes to "consolidate and expand the momentum of economic stabilization and recovery" and "maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity".

The recent failure of the market's expectation of RRR interest rate cuts does not mean a change in monetary policy. On the one hand, in the current monetary policy tools to dredge the broad credit transmission, structural tools are better than aggregate tools. Infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment continued to maintain resilience on June 5438+00, becoming the key force to stabilize the economy, which is inseparable from the precise efforts of structural monetary policy tools such as policy making financial tools, equipment upgrading and refinancing; On the other hand, at present, low-cost medium and long-term funds in the whole market are not very scarce, and the necessity of reducing RRR is not urgent. As the central bank said, since June 165438+ 10, the People's Bank of China has invested 320 billion yuan in medium and long-term liquidity through tools such as mortgage supplementary loan (PSL) and scientific and technological innovation refinancing, and the total amount of medium and long-term liquidity is higher than the maturity of the medium-term lending facility (MLF) this month.

In addition, from the past practice, it is not uncommon for the market to expect "water release" to fail. If the purpose of the appeal is to collect the return brought by the rising price of financial assets, rather than the actual needs of the development of the real economy, then the expected failure is reasonable. After all, the report once again stressed that it is necessary to persist in not engaging in "flood irrigation" and not issuing excessive money to provide stronger and higher-quality support for the real economy.