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What factors should be considered in futures investment?
Personally, no matter what kind of investment, we should pay attention to the first, second and third, ordinary investors in the futures market, mainly small and medium-sized households. Most of them spent a lot of time, energy and money, and the result was still unsuccessful. Is the futures market really not suitable for ordinary investors to participate? The answer is no, so how can ordinary investors make a profit in this market? To answer this question, let's first look at what kind of people can profit from futures trading. Through the analysis of successful traders, it can be seen that if you want to do a good job in futures investment, you must have at least the following qualities: First, the ability of market analysis and judgment. This ability is manifested in grasping the theoretical basis of economics and the national macroeconomic situation, and judging the long, medium and short-term trends of various trading varieties in the futures market and related markets. Secondly, rational operation strategy. This includes correct trading principles, reasonable distribution and use of margin, and strict risk control measures. Third, trading skills with strong regularity, such as the choice of different market prices, the ability to deal with possible problems in trading and the flexible use of various operating skills. The fourth is psychological quality and the ability to grasp personal personality characteristics, which requires a calm mind and a rational way of thinking, always facing the market and having a strong determination. The fifth is the ability to sum up and reflect on market rules and experiences in a timely manner. Among these abilities, the first ability directly determines the accuracy of the trader's market forecast, while the latter ability ensures that the trader can obtain satisfactory trading results when the forecast is correct, and can effectively reduce losses when the forecast is wrong. In fact, in the futures market, no one can predict the market correctly 100%, but reasonable operation is indeed possible for every participant through hard work. Rule 1: Strictly control trading risks. If ordinary investors want to make profits in the futures market, the first thing is to control risks. Controlling trading risk with strict and effective methods is the premise and foundation of profit, and it is the most important rule to be observed in futures trading. So, how can we effectively control the trading risk? First of all, we must establish a sense of risk. To do futures trading, we must understand that the trading risk is objective, and every transaction for each participant is the same. The trading risks that ordinary investors should focus on are mainly as follows: First, policy risks. In the process of operation, there are often some problems, a large part of which can not be solved by the current market's own adjustment function, and can only be solved by the policies and measures of macro-management departments, which will inevitably affect the trend of variety prices and may affect participants. Therefore, in the process of operation, when it is found that the futures market price is seriously deviated from the commodity value, it is necessary to enter the market cautiously and avoid blindly chasing up and down. Second, predict risks. This refers to the risk caused by misjudgment of the price trend of varieties. To avoid forecasting risk, we must pay attention to several problems: making orders should be based on evidence and abandon subjective factors; Remember to make orders against the trend, and in the market situation where price, quantity and position are well matched, we must follow the trend; When the forecast is wrong, it should be corrected in time through operational means, such as stop loss, reverse pursuit of orders or leaving the market to wait and see. Third, operational risks. When making a reasonable trading strategy, we must pay attention to several issues: (1) The decisive factor of futures price is the strength of buyers and sellers, which is different from stocks. In futures trading, the first question you have to solve is whether to be long or short, and the second question is when to close the position. Therefore, futures should consider more factors than stocks. (2) Futures trading is restricted by margin. (3) The futures price is not equal to the spot price, and the operation of the futures price ultimately depends on the strength of both long and short sides in the market. Due to the lack of understanding of the above problems, traders often make some operational mistakes, such as unreasonable use of margin, blindly hitting Man Cang, resisting floating losses, and subjectively speculating on the top and bottom of futures prices. These mistakes could have been avoided, but once they are made, they often lead to greater trading risks. Rule 2: Give orders in a planned way and strictly observe discipline. Futures prices are determined by the strength of buyers and sellers, so the market changes quickly and fluctuates greatly. Traders are often at a loss if they don't have a good mental state and adequate mental preparation. In my opinion, ordinary investors with little experience might as well spend some time every day to make their own operation plans by the following simple methods: (1) Study the monthly, weekly and daily charts from long to short to find out the current market environment and position. (2) Study the matching degree of volume, position and price, and predict the possibility of market continuation or reversal in the next step. (3) Study the signal characteristics revealed by various technical indicators. (4) Looking for price support and resistance line. (5) Forecast the opening price position of the next day. (6) According to positions, transactions, price support and resistance, predict the next day's ups and downs. (7) Adjust the forecast according to the information that may be collected that day. (8) Consider how to deal with the positions already held according to various possibility forecasts made. (9) According to personal margin, consider how to establish new positions under various predicted possibilities. (10) Formulate measures to prevent risks. Of course, simply making a trading plan can't completely guarantee the profit in the market. We should also adjust the plan according to the actual situation. We don't have to intervene in markets we don't understand, and we must never blindly follow suit without preparation. In the actual operation process, traders need to pay attention to discipline. Discipline means trading in principle. Among all trading principles, ordinary investors must abide by two points: one is the principle of stop loss, and the other is the principle of profit liquidation. The former determines whether you can get more opportunities with limited funds, and the latter determines whether you can effectively seize opportunities and make your capital grow effectively. Some people say that if you don't know how to stop loss, you won't do futures. I feel the same way. At this point, the first thing to be solved is whether to stop loss. In other words, traders should first realize that timely stop loss is an important trading principle, and then talk about how to stop loss. Another principle that ordinary investors should abide by is profit liquidation. Imagine, if you don't have the concept of closing your position to make profits and let the funds grow steadily in your mind, and you don't have a plan when to close your position, then your trading results must be random. Rule 3: What is short-term trading? The significance of short-term trading should include two aspects: first, the trading process is short, and second, the trading target area is small. From the time point of view, futures trading that holds positions for more than two days can be regarded as mid-line trading, while the trading process of more than one week is already long-term trading. From the target area of trading, the return and stop loss setting of short-term trading should generally not exceed 50% of the margin. The next question is how to conduct short-term trading. First of all, we must choose the right trading varieties. Short-term trading is suitable for operating in varieties with violent fluctuations and active trading. Only varieties with rapid fluctuations can make short-term profits. Secondly, engage in short-term trading, and don't involve more than two trading varieties at the same time. Trading more than two active varieties will often distract energy, affect the operation, and is not conducive to the distribution of margin. Third, we should pay attention to establishing a clear basis for making orders. Technical analysis method is more suitable for short-term trading. In the process of operation, investors must pay attention to the use of time-sharing charts. On the premise of long-term research, technical indicators are used to determine the timing of short-term access. Fourth, the concept of stop loss should be strict, and short-term losses should not become long-term. A common problem of ordinary investors is to make small money and lose big money. The reason is that timely stop loss is the most important. Fifth, in the case of sufficient funds or the level of margin has been steadily improved, you can consider using composite positions. In other words, the security deposit should be distributed reasonably, and the combination of length and length should be adopted to strive for greater benefits. Rule 4: Grasp the principle of entering the market. The principle of entering the market: first, we must first recognize the general trend. Contrarian trading often makes ordinary investors suffer. In fact, the way to find the trend is very simple, one is to look at the fundamentals, the other is to look at the chart (especially the moving average), and the third is to look at the disk to see the matching degree between the price and the position and volume. If the three are basically unified or both are unified, then this trend can be basically confirmed. Second, we must be clear about the reasons for entering the market. Third, use support and resistance to make short-term. Fourth, the reasonable use of margin, determine the possible profit and loss ratio. Many experienced traders believe that the unilateral trading position held by a certain variety should not exceed 30% of the total amount of funds. While formulating the principle of capital utilization, we should objectively judge the possible profit and loss ratio of this market entry. In the process of long-term trading, only the profit-loss ratio is greater than 3: 1, and short-term trading can enter the market because the target area is small, so the profit-loss ratio is 2: 1. Almost every time you enter the market, the position will have a profit and loss, and it is the key to deal with the profit and loss reasonably and correctly. This is also a question of getting out of the market. The principle of going out of the market: because the profit and loss target area of short-term trading is small, it is an easy way to close the position without hesitation when the price reaches the profit target or stop loss point. There are three common ways to deal with floating positions in medium and long-term trading: one is to take profits when there are signs that are not conducive to holding positions at more critical prices. This method often appears when the floating win and the position margin have become one to one, that is, the yield reaches 100%. The second is to gradually close the profit position. The third method requires the highest skill. That is to say, the existing positions are not leveled. When there is a high floating profit (generally 100%- 1500% of the investment margin), according to the market, the floating profit is locked by establishing reverse positions and locking positions, so as to obtain higher profits in the further development of the market. As for the handling method of losses, the following principles should be strictly grasped in operation: (1) Never overweight in the direction of loss positions when floating losses. (2) Loss positions in short-term trading must be handled on the same day, so that loss orders will not be overnight. (3) Stop loss points must be set for planned long positions, and discipline must be strictly enforced whenever the price reaches the preset stop loss point. In short, it is to effectively control trading losses and put every penny's loss in your own pre-design. If this can be done, investors will find that trading losses are not so terrible. Rule 5: Develop a good trading mentality. If traders have the following thoughts and performances, it often means that they will suffer losses in further transactions. (1) No other industry can provide me with the opportunity to get rich like futures trading. We have lost a lot anyway, so let's take a gamble. (3) The recent transactions have been profitable continuously. Take advantage of good luck and make more money. (4) At the stop-loss price, take another look and maybe come back. (5) After the stop loss order was executed, the market appeared to develop in a direction favorable to the original position, and I regretted it. Why should I stop loss? I might as well fight it! (6) Enter the market by feeling without any preparation and plan. (7) With the increase of losses, the utilization rate of margin is higher and higher. (8) After the loss occurs, it is explained by objective reasons that futures trading is too difficult for ordinary investors to make a profit. Although the reasons for these situations are different, their adverse effects exist objectively. Traders should pay attention to these signals in the process of operation and correct bad psychological reactions in time. Second, overcome the psychology of wanting and being afraid of losing. It is necessary to realize that profit and loss are the normal results of futures trading and cannot be avoided. Only by relying on stable psychological quality and rational thinking method can we make a profit, otherwise, even if we invest more money and energy, we will still fail. Third, overcome the weakness of human greed and fear through rational operation methods. We may not be able to fully understand and completely avoid this mentality, but we can completely avoid the harm that these psychological weaknesses may bring us by formulating trading disciplines (operation methods), such as planning to enter the market to overcome fear and restraining greed by stopping losses and closing positions.