My father is a stock market veteran. He owns two stocks that are at the bottom of the box and has been holding them for 14 years.

It can be said that these two stocks are the few stocks where he has made money.

Originally these two stocks may only account for 10% of his stock market assets, but now they may account for half.

One is Wuliangye and the other is Shandong Gold.

Both stocks were bought at the peak in 2007. Wuliangye waited a full 10 years before unwinding, while Shandong Gold took off early in 2009 thanks to the gold market.

I have not carefully looked at the profit and loss of his positions, but I know that Wuliangye's floating profit should be 8 times, and Shandong Gold's floating profit is more than 1 times.

He often smiled and said to me, your father didn’t have much inheritance, so he left you some gold and some wine.

Perhaps it was this idea that allowed him to keep these two stocks until now. I guess he is unlikely to sell them in the future.

As an old leek, my father’s short-term operations basically ended in tragedy.

Buying at the daily limit, buying at the lower limit, and losing 20% ??in one day are commonplace.

As a retail investor, it is normal to chase high prices because you like to pursue excitement.

I am just a person who is nearly 70 years old, and I still imitate others to chase the daily limit, which really makes me a little helpless.

He often switches back and forth between emotion and rationality, sometimes considering short-term operations and sometimes long-term investments.

His most common mentality is that he wants to be long-term when things go down, and short-term when things go up.

Many people feel that long-term holding will pay off, but they have also held for a long time and the stock was eventually delisted.

One is Hairun Photovoltaic and the other is Sinovel Wind Power.

Hairun Photovoltaic was sold for more than 1 yuan, while Sinovel Wind Power was not sold even after it was delisted.

Because Sinovel Wind Power was still profitable when it was delisted, he still firmly believes that it will return to the A-share market.

In the field of new energy, the two so-called bull stocks he selected ended up with heavy losses and tragic endings.

I only bought a few lithium battery stocks and made some money.

It can be seen that the risks of emerging industries are great, so we must assess the situation carefully and not blindly insist on it.

I once asked him whether it felt good to hold it for a long time.

He said that he felt relieved when he saw a floating profit, but felt unhappy when he saw a floating loss.

Indeed, not all stocks are suitable for long-term holding.

A good company becomes more valuable the more it is acquired, while a bad company becomes more tragic the more it is acquired.

When you hold a stock for a long time, your mentality will become anxious with the stock price until the stock price rises or falls significantly.

After a sharp decline, I was basically in a state of lying dead, because my mentality collapsed and I felt that it didn’t matter anymore.

After a sharp rise, a psychological safety zone is established, and you will not care too much about short-term fluctuations in stocks.

Looking over time, polarization is a natural law.

Many people say that long-term is golden, and only in the long-term can you make money.

In fact, taking my father as an example, it is a survivor’s law, and it does not mean that the long term is king.

The so-called Survivor's Law means that you see a certain long-term stock he holds has a large increase, but you don't see more long-term stocks, and they are still rubbing on the floor. .

Holding 8 times of Wuliangye is not enough to wipe out the money my dad has lost in the stock market over the past 20 years.

He has bought hundreds of stocks, and in the end, he may have sold less than 1/3 at a profit.

Holding a delisted stock means the loss is 100%.

If it is a full position operation, then even if a stock rises 10 times, it will not be able to make up for 100% of the loss.

There are also some stocks that have lost 50-80% of their value after their peak in 2007, and are now trading at 3-5 yuan.

Therefore, many people only see those stocks that have repeatedly hit new highs, and ignore those stocks that are just a piece of cake.

The fact is that there are many more mediocre stocks than those that keep hitting new highs.

But from the perspective of market value, those stocks that have reached new highs are occupying more shares of the entire market.

Large-capitalization stocks are becoming safer and smaller, while small-capitalization stocks are becoming more dangerous as they fall.

The money investors make in the long run is from a very small number of stocks that grow from small market capitalization to large market capitalization.

I consider myself a value investor, but not a long-term investor.

Stock investment is valuable when the valuation is low, but there is a bubble when the valuation is high.

And capital is the initiator of bubble blowing.

The performance of a listed company itself is the connotation and essence.

The so-called underestimation means lower than this essence, and the so-called overestimation means higher than this essence.

The price-to-earnings ratio is the standard for measuring the essence and valuation, and funds are the measure that determines the standard measurement.

Long-term investment is based on trends. There will also be price fluctuations in trends. It can only be said that if the company is growing well, the trend is upward.

There is not necessarily an inevitable connection between the upward trend and the upward stock price, because there are still funds at work.

Give an example.

For a listed company, its revenue and net profit increased five times in 10 years.

Then the stock price rose 10 times in the first 3 years, then fell 50% in 7 years, and finally rose 5 times in 10 years.

Is this situation reasonable? It is definitely reasonable.

For investors, if they held it 10 years ago, they would make money; if they bought it in the third year, they would lose money.

We can only say that the long-term investment value of stocks and the value of enterprises are relatively consistent, that’s all.

As for long-term investment, short-term investment, and swing investment, there is actually nothing wrong with it. Everyone’s investment methods and concepts are just different.

Buying stocks and holding them for a long time is nothing more than two different feelings, namely the feeling of making money and the feeling of losing money.

1. People who make money feel: happiness and success. For example, Lin Yuan and Dan Bin bought Moutai stocks and held them for more than ten years. They made a lot of money and achieved financial freedom. They were known as "stock gods". They both founded their own private equity funds. Things got bigger and bigger. The two of them must be happy in their hearts, and the joy and sense of success must fill their lives, which is beyond words.

2. The feeling of the loser: pain and frustration. For example, the feeling of holding PetroChina for a long time mentioned in the question. One of my stock friends has really held PetroChina for 13 years. He started buying it at 30 yuan and started covering up his position at 20 yuan. He continued to cover up his position until he ran out of money after 10 yuan. Until then, PetroChina has always had a glimmer of hope of recovering its capital, and has been reluctant to part with it. The current holding cost is still 16 yuan, the stock price is only 4.45 yuan, the account has a floating loss of 330,000 yuan, and the loss rate is as high as 72.19%. This stock trader couldn't eat well, couldn't sleep for a long time, and even suffered from nightmares and was in pain. The little leek turned into an old leek, and he became a complete loser in the stock market.

3. When buying stocks and holding them for a long time, you must not buy or hold them mindlessly. To buy stocks and hold them for a long time, first of all, you must determine whether the stocks you buy are worth holding for a long time and whether they have investment value. You must not be selectively blind. Secondly, you must learn to be flexible. Hold on hard; again, do T in the band, and don’t forget to make new moves in order to maximize your returns.

With good intentions, I have reminded traders many times to buy and hold when the dips are low and be safe when the gains are high; it is better to buy bank stocks than to save money, and it is better to buy funds than to speculate in stocks. This is my motto and behavior track. , I think there must be some people who have been following my footsteps and have gained a lot.

It is better to teach a man how to fish than to teach him how to fish!

I was a short-term trader when I was young, and I liked short-term trading very much. However, I didn’t make much money after doing it for many years. After I reached middle age, I discovered that long-term trading is gold.

When I buy stocks now, I always do them as long-term investments and hold them for at least a few years. I bought several stocks last year and still hold them this year. Among them, Wangfujing made the most money, with a profit of 296% after one year of holding. Hengrui Pharmaceuticals made a profit of 90%, BYD made a profit of 60%, and Conch Cement made a profit. 52% etc. ***More than 10 stocks have been held for a full year this year, and the total profit is close to 40%!

My feeling is that long-term investment is not only highly profitable, but also beneficial to the body and mind. You can have a lot of time to do the things you like, away from the hard work of reading the market every day, and away from the mental troubles caused by market fluctuations. .

I know that many people do not understand long-term investment. Many people are forced to invest in the long-term and often hold it for 7 or even 10 years. Such people do not understand what long-term investment is. , only know how to hold on and get back your money.

To make long-term investments, you must understand the profit model of a listed company, its future performance growth points, and its future performance growth potential.

It is necessary to understand and learn to understand the financial statements of listed companies, and conduct industry analysis and development prospect analysis.

I often have to look at the annual financial statements of some listed companies. You will find many surprises among them. There are many leading companies, which are first-class not only in China but also in the world. There are also many such good companies in A-shares.

The strategy I adopt is to firmly hold many such leading listed companies. And it is a long-term holding.

Last year when the company was in a downturn, I bought a lot of more than 10 industry leaders, and I got a good return on investment this year.

Let me tell you a true story. Three women, a classmate, a friend, and a neighbor had to buy tickets for 5,000 points in the Shanghai Bull Market. They asked me what they could buy, and they still wanted to be long-term.

Why do you ask me? Because I asked them to sell them all at 4,800 points, and the stocks were looking up, and I felt anxious. I tried to persuade them for two days to no avail, and they insisted on asking me for stocks.

I said, if you really want to buy, just buy ICBC. My classmates, I went in with a full position. My friend bought half a position in ICBC and half a position in small-cap stocks. My neighbor didn’t listen to me and continued to pursue the rise in small-cap stocks. , soaring.

It started to collapse within a few days, and ICBC began to protect the market. Those who bought ICBC followed me and made a few big price differences. The cost came down, and then it continued to fall all the way down.

A classmate had a floating loss of 15% and a cost of more than 4 yuan. He asked me what to do.

I said you said you want to be long-term. You have to believe me and continue to hold it now. If you don’t believe me, I am not losing money now. Large and small cap stocks have also fallen by 50%. You can do it, but most of them are still there. It has to drop by 50%. If you don’t believe it, you can try it.

In the end, he listened to me and didn’t sell it. He took it for more than two years, distributed the bonus 3 times, and made a small price difference. The cost was 3.2. It went up to 5 yuan and didn’t sell it. It didn’t sell it for 6 yuan, but it sold it for 7 yuan. In the two years of big bear market, the profit has more than doubled.

My friend, ICBC, has almost the same cost, and small-cap stocks are covered by 50%+. I am anxious when I see small-cap stocks, and I pay the price difference every day, trying to earn back. ICBC also keeps doing it, and finally makes 20% and finally makes money. , you can only buy small-cap stocks and continue to suffer.

However, this friend was lucky. He made more than 100,000 and 200,000 yuan in new shares in a year, and all the losses were made up by China New Shares.

Now I am working on the long term and don’t dare to mess around. It took me a few years to pay the tuition. I’m lucky and I didn’t lose money.

My neighbor is in a miserable situation. Last month, he came to complain. One company is a technology company and the other is an airline company. Now one is holding 50% and the other is holding 55%. They asked me what to do. Technology asked me to increase my position and then bought it again. After a long-term low position, it is estimated that it will take two or three years to recover the capital. If it continues erratically, it may not be possible to recover in ten years.

The same three long lines, different results.

Therefore, 80% of people who hold a stock in the long term will lose money, 15% of people will make no loss or profit, and run away, and 5% of people will really make money.

Why is the proportion of long-term losses so high?

First, the selection location is wrong.

Most retail investors are forced to be long-term investors. Why are they forced? When chasing high prices, many people buy them after prices have increased by 5 times or 10 times. Retail investors basically buy at the final distribution stage. It is possible to make more than 10% in the short term, but once the market crashes, it is normal to lose 50% in the short term, and even if you see a rebound, you will lose. Don't sell, and then get deeper and deeper into the trap.

Secondly, you will move as soon as you are trapped, and you will not know how to follow the trend, how to reduce losses, how to use time to reduce costs, so you will start to pretend to be dead when you fall to a loss of about 40%.

If you are lucky, the ones you buy are not particularly high, and a wave of market conditions will help you out in a year or two. If you are unlucky, if you buy Mount Everest, you will always lose about 50%.

As for how to solve the deep set problem, I have explained it in other questions and answers, so I won’t repeat it here.

Third, I don’t know the value of the company, whether it is expensive or not, whether it will rise after a few years of buying it, and whether there are any pitfalls. Even if I think the rise is good, then I will chase it. They say it will rise. If it’s good, then buy it.

It can only mean that the basic knowledge of stock trading is too lacking and tuition fees need to be paid. But these tuition fees are not cheap.

The fourth step is to be strong yourself

Just ask whether a large part of the stocks you are trapped in are stocks obtained from this channel or that channel, and you still suffer the same loss. Why?

Stock trading and financial management require you to learn by yourself and find stocks that suit you. If you combine your stock personality and human nature well, you can make money. Everyone has his own temper, and the same goes for stocks. You can make money no matter what the rhythm of the stock is, and if you don’t, you will make money. Make no money no matter what.

You also need to learn how to judge the value of stocks, and then find an industry you understand to do it.

A barber once asked me what he could buy. I said your scissors are made of stainless steel, right? He said yes, and I asked, have the prices of scissors increased recently? He said it has gone up a lot, and I said stainless steel has also gone up a lot. Stainless steel stocks haven’t gone up yet. Can’t I buy them? The stock market is life. Within a few days, he made a fortune by making three stainless steel plates.

Those who are good at observing life will not be too bad at stock trading. When doing stocks, you will also carefully observe the relationship between industries, companies, products and life.

Having said that, let’s go back to it, whether it is long-term or short-term, most people lose money. As for why, there are too many reasons. 10,000 people have 10,000 reasons for losses. There is nothing wrong with stocks and nothing wrong with the stock market. You can only fight your own mistakes, respect the market, and adapt to the market.

In the long term, you need to buy at a price lower than the company’s value, and then quietly wait for the company’s growth and value to return. There is no quick money to be made in the stock market. I have only seen one person making quick money so far. It still took a lot of stumbling, ups and downs before finally succeeding.

Those who want to chase highs and talk about value investing, and those who insist on not making money in the long run are unwilling to admit their mistakes, but sooner or later the market will make you admit your mistakes.

I think long-term holding is indeed very painful, but the final result will be very beautiful. If you don't open for three years and eat for three years, the horizontal direction will be as long as the vertical height.

I still suggest that retail investors should not spend too much energy on short-term trading. It is easy to miss short-term trading opportunities in terms of time. When it is time to go to work, choose one that has the opportunity to double or triple in five years, and then go to work hard. I don’t know how much better it is than working hard every day for five years and still losing money and not taking my work seriously.

I started buying stocks in 2006. When the bull market hit, I spent tens of thousands of dollars playing for more than two million. I had just graduated and was not working. I was just eating and drinking for two or three years. At that time, I felt that life was like this. Got it! Dream of becoming a professional gamer.

I also went to Beijing to watch the Olympics in 2008, and then things started to go downhill. I always thought I would come back. I would not sell when the price went up, but I would cover my position when it fell. I persisted for a while, but no need to think about the result, there was nothing. All that's left is a bunch of numbers...

The market value is about 70,000 to 80,000 yuan. I drank too much and lost my investment card. Of course, I still remember the account number and password, because it is In the past, I set up automatic login on my laptop, and it was not often necessary to enter the account number and password. After a while, the account number was forgotten...

Just go out to work honestly and honestly, after all, you still have to go out to work. I felt a little uncomfortable at first, but then I got used to it. What can I do? If you encounter many obstacles and accept them, you will become honest.

Just keep working, start a family, buy a house and a car, and finally live a good life! It’s not that I haven’t thought about it over the years. For example, when I returned to my life back then, I was very arrogant and extravagant, but now that my life has become more focused, I no longer have any thoughts.

A few days ago, I was talking about stocks with my colleagues. My colleagues asked me if I had ever bought stocks. He also said that if I had bought Maotai for 10,000 yuan more than ten years ago, I would have achieved financial freedom now!

Then I remembered that I had bought it before, and also bought Maotai. I drank Maotai every day, so how could I not buy a few lots!

So I excitedly went to the previously opened China Merchants Securities to renew my card (that is, just find the account number), and re-register the password...

After a lot of operations, I bought It’s PetroChina, and it’s just PetroChina. Maotai was bought before, but it was all sold later...

Life is like this. This is the stock I bought ten years ago. PetroChina, it’s no big deal. Yes, just persist if you can. There will always be a time when the clouds will clear and the moon will appear. When it comes to investing, there will be profits and losses.

The next thing is to work hard and do business seriously, because you have to live and continue to invest, but you must remember, don’t be a shareholder of PetroChina, you can’t win it.

Holding stocks for a long time is equivalent to value investing.

Here are some suggestions about value investing:

1: Specifically look for undervalued securities. Unlike growth investors, value investors prefer stocks with low price-to-earnings ratios, book values, or other measures of value. This means looking for stocks that are trading below the company's value to buy and hold for the long term.

3: Adhere to the three basic concepts of value investing, which are also the cornerstones of value investing, namely the correct attitude, margin of safety and intrinsic value.

Value investing also requires time to research and look for companies with good performance, companies with sustained growth, companies with strong management capabilities, and companies that are beneficial to the country and the people. Stay away from shell companies, junk companies, and hot companies. Finally, persevere. Study hard.

There is no such thing as pie in the sky in this world.

Real case: I once bought Minsheng Bank for 7 yuan. I never looked at it after buying it. It wasn’t until one year when I saw many people talking about stocks that I remembered to retrieve the securities password to check the stocks and prices. It was more than 14 yuan, fully doubled, and then I sold the shares and held them for about 3 years.

For stocks, you can find a stock that does not need to be delisted, and then hold it for a long time. It should be easier to make a profit.

After being in the market for more than ten years, I have gone through many stages, including the initial novice stage and ignorance stage, then the enlightenment stage, the in-depth research stage, and later the professional investment stage and the value investor stage. Since entering the stage of value investors, I have basically been fixed on value. For investment, it is also a long-term holding state.

If I want to talk about my feelings about long-term holdings, I have two personal feelings: 1. Holding shares is not difficult, but it requires you to have a deep understanding of the company you invest in. Take the company Ping An of China as an example (there is no recommendation, it is only required for the content). Many investments were scared away during its decline, and most investors even left the market with losses. However, if you study this company in depth enough, you will find that this company has a strong ability to innovate itself, its value attributes are relatively high, and its valuation level is currently very low. This can lay the foundation for your long-term shareholding. If you hold shares for three to five years, or even more than ten years, you can continue to hold them as long as the fundamentals of the company do not change.

Many investors are unable to hold shares for a long time because they have no understanding of the companies they invest in. Their understanding of the investment goals is only "this is a stock and it may rise." Therefore, I am afraid of rising prices, and even more afraid of falling prices. I have not held it for three to five days, and I am thinking about leaving the market.

2. Research the company, not the stock. There are a lot of listed companies on the stock market today, about 3,900 companies. Without enough and in-depth research on the company, investing in stocks is like trying your luck again and again, with an extremely high failure rate. Many investors think that only in the bull market can they make money, but can they really make money in the future bull market? Most likely it will be difficult as well. Taking recent transactions as an example, even if the market surges, many stocks in the stock market will fall or fail to outperform the index, and there will still be differentiation. Therefore, whether we are in a bull market in the future is no longer the most important thing. What matters is the depth with which you research the company, not the level at which you research the stock.

Let me talk about my experience. First of all, there are only two types of people who hold stocks for a long time. The first type is those who are trapped, and then treat the dead horse as a living horse. This kind of mentality.

The second type is the king of value investing. For example, the old man who bought Tencent in Hong Kong stocks spent nearly 20 years and became the largest natural person interaction. I won’t talk about the second one. That’s the investment master, let’s focus on the first type.

What is the first kind of mentality? It’s a gambling mentality. It was doomed the moment he entered the stock market. He was a leek. Why do you say that? If you can't control your own hands when the market rises, you will feel like you are missing out on hundreds of millions if you don't buy. Then some smooth operation. The result is at the highest point. Then tell yourself that you will get back your money, and slowly you will get more and more tricks. More and more, and finally I stopped watching, telling myself. Sooner or later, it will rise back. It’s a matter of time. This is human nature. I refuse to admit defeat and comfort myself. In the end it’s the long term, there’s a saying! The short line becomes the middle line, the middle line becomes the long line, and the long side contributes.

What causes this result? It means that you don’t understand the market, and you don’t have your own operating system. Without a system, you will panic, be greedy, and be human. So you want to survive in the stock market! An operating system is required.