There are indications that the super adjustment is coming, and there will definitely be major bad news tonight. Please note that the dealer knows the news in advance that the crazy boat is over. In recent days, the market has been rising continuously, and there has been no decent callback. This situation cannot be maintained for a long time. Pay attention to the risks of high prices.

Morgan Stanley warned that A shares will take the lead in adjusting bank shares within six months.

1October 4th 2 1 Century Business Herald

Our reporter Wang Gongbin trainee reporter Xu Qianxiang

In 2007, the concept of China was still rising.

Although the domestic stock market is closed for holidays, the Hong Kong market has become bullish. 65438+10.3, the Hang Seng Index hit a new high, jumping over the 20400 mark in one fell swoop and closing at 204 13, up/kloc-0.03. Finance has once again become the leader, with China Life Insurance, Ping An of China and PICC of China rising sharply.

Whether A shares have deviated from the normal track and when they will face the risk of callback, in recent days, major investment banks at home and abroad have put them in the sun for debate.

Morgan Stanley issued a stern warning to the sharp rise of A shares. In a report on A-shares at the end of last year, "2006: Bear Patience", Morgan Stanley believed that A-shares would face a correction in the next six months.

"It is difficult to measure people's greed and the exact time when the market reaches the highest point, but at present, A shares have overshadowed the valuation level of US stocks, indicating that the time for the market to fall is not far away." Morgan Stanley thinks.

Call me back in six months

"I have also noticed this phenomenon recently, and I have not talked about the fundamentals of enterprises, but only talked about liquidity." Zhang Yidong, strategist of Industrial Securities, a domestic investment bank, told reporters.

He said that the market began to favor "storytelling", capital promotion became a topic of competing concern, and the fundamentals deviated somewhat.

According to Zhang Yidong, the PE of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (2067.092,26.05, 1.28%) (2067.092,26.05,1.28%) index is about 26 times, while the average PE of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is about 30 times, far exceeding the Dow Jones industrial average index of 60 times.

Morgan Stanley believes that China is still reforming its financial system, so it cannot overestimate the market value of China. "The valuation of the China Stock Exchange has not yet reached the time when it should exceed the US stock market." We should keep a wait-and-see attitude.

When "too much money, we must continue to buy" became the mantra of domestic investors, Morgan Stanley reminded that "this seems to take us back to the era before the stock market crash in 2000".

At that time, "we often heard similar words."

Judging from the regional market and even the global market, A shares have been overbought. When liquidity has almost become the only topic discussed in the market, Morgan Stanley thinks it is time to reassess.

The judgment of supporting Morgan Stanley to make a half-year correction of A shares is based on the following points: 1) China's capital account has not been fully opened, and the exchange rate is still controlled; 2) The public equity financing market, even including overseas financing, only accounts for 55% of GDP; 3) Foreign institutional investors still face many obstacles in doing business in China, even if they have a controlling stake; 4) China still doesn't have its own yield curve. State-owned commercial banks control most of the bond market, and bond financing is of little significance to enterprises, especially private enterprises.

Therefore, although China has made remarkable achievements in the process of industrialization and grown into a major economy in the global economy, its capital market reform is far from the valuation of the US stock market.

In the past 20 years, China has been valued higher than the United States three times. But every time it won't last more than a year.

Morgan Stanley believes that the valuation of China enterprises began to exceed the US level six months ago, so according to past experience, the decline of China market will come six months later, and Morgan Stanley emphasizes that the risk of A shares is at its peak.

"Although the risk of China Stock Exchange will be reduced in the long run, the risk premium of A shares will definitely be higher than that of the United States in the foreseeable future." Morgan Stanley said.

Banks bear the brunt.

According to past experience, the callback always comes suddenly in the rapid growth of the bull market. "Traitors" are those stocks that have been growing continuously.

There is no doubt that large-cap blue-chip stocks such as capital-driven banks will bear the brunt.

Domestic analysts also agree with this view. A shares are competing to rise, which is related to liquidity and stock index futures expectations, but it has deviated from the fundamentals and the risks are prominent.

Zhang Yidong said that considering the growth premium of China, the PE of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index should not be as high as that of the Dow Jones Index.

Morgan Stanley said that it will continue to be cautious about the recent performance of the market. China has not shaken off the influence of American economy, nor has it completed its own financial and economic reform. Therefore, the market value of China cannot be overestimated.

When the market focuses on liquidity and it is difficult for strategic investors to quantify and predict, we re-examine the principles and methods of valuation. According to the investment rhythm of strategic investors in Asia, we re-examine the valuation of China and find that China has been overvalued.

Morgan Stanley reminded investors that although the China market still maintained a high growth level, the rapid expansion and investment speed of the banking, raw materials and real estate industries masked the risk of asset depreciation.

"We should keep a wait-and-see attitude, as shown by excluding the value of the oil industry. Morgan Stanley continued to increase its holdings in consumer goods and telecommunications industries to cope with the market downturn, while reducing its holdings in circulation sectors such as banks, raw materials and real estate. "

The rapid growth of corporate profitability is mainly driven by energy, materials, real estate and banks that provide huge financing for these industries. Although all assets will be put into use, especially in the case of rapid economic growth, investors will still have to pay for over-investment in the near future.

Of course, Morgan Stanley also believes that the bull market of A shares will continue.

According to Morgan Stanley's forecast, from 2006 to 2008, the EPS growth rate of MSCI China Index Company was 16.9%, 6.9% and 29% respectively, and the growth rate after excluding oil factors was 15.8%, 23% and 26.2% respectively.

"In the short term, we continue to be concerned and cautious about China assets, although we are more optimistic about the long-term growth of China's income." Morgan Stanley said.

Zhang Yidong believes that Morgan Stanley's analysis may regard China as a mature market, but in fact, it is reasonable to give A shares an appropriate growth premium.

However, Zhang also said that before the introduction of stock index futures, A shares are still expected to continue to rise, and with the deviation of fundamentals, they will eventually face adjustment.

"The magnitude will be relatively large." Zhang said, "At present, the trend of A-shares seems to be trying to finish the marathon by sprinting, and from the historical process of Japan's appreciation, world-class companies such as Honda and Toyota were born at that time."

Therefore, Zhang believes that the emergence of world-class companies in the A-share market is the key to improve the PE of A-shares, and the A-share market hopes that asset injection and H-share return will dilute PE.