At present, the accelerated development of the global economy has increased the demand for oil, especially the rapid increase of oil consumption in developing countries represented by China, which has increased the dependence of economic growth on oil. Since 1996 China became a net importer of crude oil, its dependence on foreign countries has increased rapidly, and now it has exceeded 50%. In this case, the impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on China's economy and prices has obviously increased.

I. Transmission routes and influencing factors

Crude oil is the most important energy and raw material, and the impact of international crude oil price rise on China's price level is mainly in the following three aspects: first, since 2000, domestic crude oil price has been in line with international standards, and the international crude oil price rise will directly raise China's domestic crude oil price level; Second, the rise in international crude oil prices will increase the import price of crude oil in China, increase the production cost of crude oil processing enterprises, and put downstream enterprises under greater pressure of price increase; Third, the price increase of crude oil will drive the price increase of its substitute products, such as coal, which will drive the price increase in a wider range.

Because of their different positions in the industrial chain, various industries are affected by the price increase of crude oil in different degrees, which depends on two aspects: first, direct dependence on crude oil and indirect dependence. The higher the dependence on crude oil, the greater the impact of rising crude oil prices. For example, the cost of crude oil usually accounts for more than 80% of the main business cost of oil refining enterprises, and the increase of crude oil price will directly increase the cost of oil refining enterprises and prompt them to raise prices; The second is whether the price transmission is smooth. In the case of smooth price transmission mechanism, the impact of crude oil price increase will be transmitted from upstream to downstream through the industrial chain, from production to consumption. However, if the price transmission mechanism is not smooth, the impact of international crude oil price increase may be limited to the upstream and middle reaches, and it is difficult to transmit it to the downstream.

Second, the quantitative analysis of the impact on domestic prices

In order to comprehensively analyze the impact of international crude oil price rise on domestic prices, the impact of crude oil price rise is calculated according to the 20 10 input-output table and input-output price model published by the National Bureau of Statistics. The results show that if the price of crude oil rises by 10% a year, the overall price level will rise by 0.5%, the price of investment products will rise by 0.3% and the consumer price will rise by 0.2%. From the survey of 17 industries, machinery and equipment manufacturing, chemical industry and metal products manufacturing are most affected by the rise in oil prices, with price increases ranging from 0.6%- 1%; The production and supply of electricity, steam and hot water, coking, gas and petroleum processing, transportation, post and telecommunications, and commercial catering are greatly affected by the rise in oil prices, with the price increase ranging from 0.2% to 0.4%; The prices of other industries are less affected by the price increase of crude oil. According to the above model, if the annual crude oil price rises by 30%, the overall price level will rise by 1.5%, the investment price will rise by 0.9%, and the consumer price will rise by 0.7%.

Because the above calculation is based on the smooth price transmission mechanism, considering the following factors, the impact of rising crude oil prices on China's price level may not be so great. First, the pricing power of the benchmark price of refined oil is still in the National Development and Reform Commission. Judging from the current situation, in order to alleviate inflationary pressure, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil products is far less than the increase of crude oil prices, which reduces the impact of refined oil price increase on downstream enterprises. Second, due to the fierce price competition in the field of general industrial consumer goods, the rising cost of upstream enterprises is difficult to transmit to the consumption field. Third, the increase in the price of public utilities set by the government is likely to be less than the increase in costs, which will also make the increase in service prices less than expected.



On the whole, with the slowdown of domestic investment and the increase of food supply, the increase of international crude oil prices has increased the pressure of imported inflation. If the international crude oil price remains high, the investment price and consumer price will remain high next year, which may be further increased.