For large-scale assets, in the conical stage of history, the interest rate of American debt shows the law of rising first and then falling. After the Federal Reserve announced the reduction, the interest rate of US bonds will have a chance to peak down, the stock indexes of emerging markets will have a chance to stabilize and rebound, and gold will also have a chance to rebound. At present, gold is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term. The expected fall of interest rate hike and the correction of long-term interest rate will bring opportunities for the allocation of gold, and it is necessary to continue to track the changes in the interest rate of US bonds in the future. A-shares need to pay attention to the short-term market brought about by marginal easing of domestic policies, but in the context of stagflation, it is still expected that there will be no trend opportunities.

Fed rate hike

Recently, the market expects the Fed to raise interest rates gradually. With the continuous rise of global commodities and the speeches of Fed officials, the market began to gradually deny the view of "temporary" inflation and began the process of raising interest rates in advance. On the one hand, judging from the implied interest rate of the Fed's policy interest rate futures, the market's expectation of raising interest rates after June 2022 has gradually increased from 202 1. As of the date of 1 1.3, the data shows that interest rates will be raised twice in 2022 (25bp each time), and the probability of raising interest rates in June is 35. In addition, the presidents of St. Louis Fed, new york Fed, Cleveland Fed and Kansas Fed who still have voting rights in 2022 all expressed their support for raising interest rates in 2022. Finally, the recent rising inflation also supports this view. The CPI and core PCE PPI of the Federal Reserve recorded 5.4%, 3.6% and 8.6% respectively in September, which were significantly higher than the inflation target of the Federal Reserve. It is too early to talk about raising interest rates. First, inflation in the United States is expected to drop rapidly. Assuming that the current commodity prices remain unchanged, with the base of last year continuing to rise, according to the current CPI year-on-year data, it will rapidly drop to around 3% in February 2022. Secondly, at present, all countries in the world have begun to regulate commodity prices, including calling on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase production, calling on Russia to increase natural gas supply, restarting Iran negotiations, and calling on the United States and Japan to sell strategic oil reserves. Although foreign countries have not adopted the same stringent policies as domestic ones, they have also seen a slowdown in overall commodity growth. Finally, austerity policies such as raising interest rates and reducing debt have a great impact on financial markets and the real economy, and the Fed still needs some policy wait-and-see space.